Brewers: Are 2021 Outfield Stat Projections “Fair” or “Foul?”

Avisaíl García

Projection: .252/.318/.418 18 HR 64 RBI 62 R

Ruling: Fair

Avisaíl García has looked better than anybody during Cactus League play so far. He’s flexed his muscles, hitting two home runs and has been one of the better run producers, which is quite encouraging after the down season he had last year.

It’s difficult to not be influenced heavily by his spring training performance, but Brewers fans hope to see similar productivity when the games really count before they can totally dispute projections that may seem a little low. Either way, the hot start has to ease the mind of García.

I think these numbers could very well be the floor of García this coming year, but if others in the Brewers lineup produce like they can, these numbers wouldn’t be bad by any means.

For his career, García is a .271 hitter, but he’s more than capable of hitting .300 in a good year, as he hit .330 in 136 games during an All-Star year in 2017. 18 home runs in 2021 seems very realistic as his career 162-game average is right around 19. His start in spring, though, suggests he could definitely hit 20 long balls.

One area García should look to capitalize on in 2021 is stolen bases. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 78th percentile in sprint speed. Only one time in his career has García hit double digits in stolen bases, which was 10 in 2019. Having shed some weight in the offseason, you’d think García is even more fleet of foot and can make things happen on the bases.

Lastly, I think depending on where he hits in the lineup, he could have 15 to 20 more RBI’s. We projected him as a potential candidate for the cleanup spot but he could realistically hit 1 through 6 in most MLB lineups. If the batters ahead of him reach base frequently, he could very well hit 70+ RBI’s but 64 is a respectable projection.

Lorenzo Cain

Projection: .265/.343/.381 6 HR 23 RBI 38 R

Ruling: Foul

This one looked to be heading fair but a fan reached over into the field of play and made it foul. I don’t have too much of a gripe with this projection besides a couple categories.

First off, I do agree with the amount of at-bats that Lorenzo Cain could be looking at this year. He’s getting up there in age and is entering the year with a quad injury so the Brewers are planning on working him back slowly. Also, throw in the addition of Bradley Jr. and Cain’s plate appearances are more than cut in half compared to his 162-game average over his career of 666.

The first disagreement I have with this projection is the runs batted in number of 23. Given that Kolten Wong will likely either hit first or second in the lineup with Cain potentially taking a while to get going at the plate due to the injury, I am inclined to believe that he will be hitting lower in the lineup, thus giving him more of a chance to drive runners in if the Brewers can be more efficient at getting on base this year. I would say somewhere in the ballpark of 32 RBI’s seems respectable.

The other element is the runs portion of the table. Lorenzo Cain has been a run scoring machine throughout his career and with the projected OBP of .343, I think he’ll have plenty of chances to score runs this year.

A good portion of Cain’s success relies on others producing within the lineup, but I disagree by a small margin with Baseball Reference in this one. We should hope that Cain and the rest of the outfielders all contribute so much that it’s a daily challenge for Craig Counsell to pick which three to put on the lineup card.

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Projection: .237/.324/.413 18 HR 61 RBI 73 R

Ruling: Foul

For those who were wondering, Jackie Bradley Jr. owns a career slash line of .239/.321/.412. So it seems this projection is merely based off of what he’s done in his career so far. But for the first time in eight years in the MLB, JBJ will not be playing in Boston. And while Boston isn’t a bad place to hit by any means, the confines of American Family Field may prove a bit more beneficial.

It’s become known around the league that the stadium in Milwaukee is one of the most friendly left-handed hitting venues throughout the sport. Between 2011-2015, the formerly-known Miller Park had the best home run factor for left-handed batters at 1.366 and the last few years they’ve hovered around the top 10 overall in home run factor.

There’s only a six-foot-high fence and the space between the right field line and center field isn’t all that lengthy. JBJ will almost certainly enjoy hitting in American Family Field, not to mention roaming his new field.

Coming off his most efficient year at the plate in some time, Baseball Reference expects him to drop about .040 points in batting average, OBP, and slugging, for whatever reason. Sure he doesn’t have the track record that many might want to see leading up to this, but this could be a case where a change of scenery brings back the JBJ of 2016 when he was an All-Star.

I don’t think this projection is way off, I just would like to see some higher numbers due to the fact that the Brewers will field a dangerous lineup day in and out and he will reap the benefits. I’ll say somewhere around the ballpark of .252/.365/.437 with 22 HR, 66 RBI, and 80 runs scored for the new arrival in Brew Town.

This Brewers outfield could be one of the best in all of baseball and one of the real keys to success for the team this coming season. Not only can all four excel at the plate, but they look to be one of the better defensive units with arm strength and speed to burn all around.