Brewers: Are 2021 Outfield Stat Projections “Fair” or “Foul?”
Projection: .252/.318/.418 18 HR 64 RBI 62 R
Avisaíl García has looked better than anybody during Cactus League play so far. He’s flexed his muscles, hitting two home runs and has been one of the better run producers, which is quite encouraging after the down season he had last year.
It’s difficult to not be influenced heavily by his spring training performance, but Brewers fans hope to see similar productivity when the games really count before they can totally dispute projections that may seem a little low. Either way, the hot start has to ease the mind of García.
I think these numbers could very well be the floor of García this coming year, but if others in the Brewers lineup produce like they can, these numbers wouldn’t be bad by any means.
For his career, García is a .271 hitter, but he’s more than capable of hitting .300 in a good year, as he hit .330 in 136 games during an All-Star year in 2017. 18 home runs in 2021 seems very realistic as his career 162-game average is right around 19. His start in spring, though, suggests he could definitely hit 20 long balls.
One area García should look to capitalize on in 2021 is stolen bases. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 78th percentile in sprint speed. Only one time in his career has García hit double digits in stolen bases, which was 10 in 2019. Having shed some weight in the offseason, you’d think García is even more fleet of foot and can make things happen on the bases.
Lastly, I think depending on where he hits in the lineup, he could have 15 to 20 more RBI’s. We projected him as a potential candidate for the cleanup spot but he could realistically hit 1 through 6 in most MLB lineups. If the batters ahead of him reach base frequently, he could very well hit 70+ RBI’s but 64 is a respectable projection.