Brewers: Are 2021 Infield Stat Projections “Fair” or “Foul?”

We recently took a look at the four main outfielders that the Brewers will utilize throughout the upcoming season. While there are some question marks in terms of playing time, these guys have all established themselves as true professionals. On the infield, there is a lot more uncertainty.

From the battle at shortstop, to the defensive ability of Keston Hiura at first base, to who will be the main third baseman for Craig Counsell, this position group may go through some growing pains. If this unit can collectively hit and field at a consistent rate, it would really take the pressure off the pitching staff as well as the outfielders in terms of shouldering the load for the team’s offensive production.

Like our last piece, we’ll be taking the projections from Baseball Reference, the internet baseball encyclopedia. Specifically we’ll look at Hiura, Kolten Wong, Orlando Arcia, Luis Urías and Travis Shaw. Daniel Robertson could very well be a key utilityman for his ballclub this Spring and Summer, but his at-bats could fluctuate greatly so we’ll bypass him.

So let’s go ahead and dig into it. Are the following stat projections for Brewers infielders “fair” or “foul?”

Keston Hiura

Projection: .258/.337/.481 28 HR 77 RBI 77 R

Ruling: Fair

Keston Hiura has yet to hit 20 home runs in an MLB season to this point in his career, but I wholeheartedly this will be the year for that…..and so does Baseball Reference.

His first year in the big leagues, Hiura hit 19 home runs in about half of the games in a full MLB season (84). Now, with only Daniel Vogelbach potentially behind him on the depth chart at first base, I love the projected number of plate appearances at 567. This projection really hit the nail on the head.

Last year was probably one of the worst seasons that Hiura has ever had hitting the ball for as far as we can look back. His worst season in terms of batting average throughout college and minor league action was in 2018 with the Biloxi Shuckers where he hit a respectable .273 in 73 games.

There’s no need to reiterate his struggles last year as everyone could tell he just wasn’t seeing the ball well, resulting in a bit of a sophomore slump for the Brewers slugger and similar to so many other good hitters during the craziness that was 2020.

His estimated .258 average is essentially split down the middle from his first year with the Brewers where he hit .303 and last year where he hit .212. I could see him hitting higher or lower by not by a huge margin if looking at this conservatively. A .481 SLG% would really prove beneficial as Milwaukee could be lacking in the power department.

In terms of raw numbers, 77 RBI’s might seem a bit low, especially if he’s in the cleanup spot like we estimated. 77 runs seems fine and 28 home runs would come in second on the team behind Christian Yelich according to Baseball Reference.

Luis Urías

Projection: .238/.326/.370 9 HR 42 RBI 45 R

Ruling: Fair

Let me start off by saying I so badly want to dispute this projection. With the recent struggles of Eric Lauer paired with the slow start for Luis Urías, immediate analysis appears as though the Padres fleeced the Brewers in the trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies away.

In his MLB career, he’s struggled at the plate, but in the minor leagues and foreign ball he’s been a consistent hitter. He has the capability to hit above .275 but we just haven’t seen enough from him yet to say this prediction is wrong.

As mentioned above, the success of Urías sort of depends on the success of Orlando Arcia and vice versa. Whichever of the two encounters early season struggles, the other might be able to cement themselves as the everyday starter.

I would expect to see Urías in the seven or eight hole most of the time he plays, so there could be plenty of chances to score runs. 341 at-bats would be the most of his career in the big leagues so maybe there’s a chance he sees a consistent amount of plate appearances that his comfort level will grow.

Travis Shaw

Projection: .219/.316/.400 19 HR 53 RBI 52 R

Ruling: Fair

This may be the toughest hitter’s projection out of all, in my opinion. I wish I was joking when I say the range of outcomes for Travis Shaw could be as one of the best run producers in the Brewers’ upward trending lineup or that he could hit circa .170 and lose a starting spot.

Last season was a bit of a rebound after the awful 2019 slump he encountered and if he can put up similar numbers for a full 162-game season, he will more than likely stay snug at the hot corner.

Shaw was actually in the 78th percentile in hard hit percentage and the 82nd percentile in exit velocity last year according to Baseball Savant, but was rather average to below average in every other category. Last year, he would have been on pace to hit just under 20 home runs over a full season in Toronto.

The long ball might not be as prominent as usual for a Brewer ballclub this season as three out of their top six home run hitters from a season ago are no longer on the team and recent additions besides Shaw aren’t really known for their power.

I find it hard to believe ‘The Mayor’ will hit .020 points lower this year than last but I also didn’t anticipate it dropping .080 points from 2018-2019. It’s been a bit of a slow start in Cactus League play for Shaw, but if anything, I think this projection is a tad low. He’s just been too inconsistent in the last handful of years to be too confident.

In today’s projection dissection, there are a lot of fair balls mainly because of the unknowns that surround this position unit. It would be nice though, to look back and see that these predictions were too low. But for now, we’ll wait and see.