Brewers: Are 2021 Infield Stat Projections “Fair” or “Foul?”
We recently took a look at the four main outfielders that the Brewers will utilize throughout the upcoming season. While there are some question marks in terms of playing time, these guys have all established themselves as true professionals. On the infield, there is a lot more uncertainty.
From the battle at shortstop, to the defensive ability of Keston Hiura at first base, to who will be the main third baseman for Craig Counsell, this position group may go through some growing pains. If this unit can collectively hit and field at a consistent rate, it would really take the pressure off the pitching staff as well as the outfielders in terms of shouldering the load for the team’s offensive production.
Like our last piece, we’ll be taking the projections from Baseball Reference, the internet baseball encyclopedia. Specifically we’ll look at Hiura, Kolten Wong, Orlando Arcia, Luis Urías and Travis Shaw. Daniel Robertson could very well be a key utilityman for his ballclub this Spring and Summer, but his at-bats could fluctuate greatly so we’ll bypass him.
So let’s go ahead and dig into it. Are the following stat projections for Brewers infielders “fair” or “foul?”
Keston Hiura
Projection: .258/.337/.481 28 HR 77 RBI 77 R
Ruling: Fair
Keston Hiura has yet to hit 20 home runs in an MLB season to this point in his career, but I wholeheartedly this will be the year for that…..and so does Baseball Reference.
His first year in the big leagues, Hiura hit 19 home runs in about half of the games in a full MLB season (84). Now, with only Daniel Vogelbach potentially behind him on the depth chart at first base, I love the projected number of plate appearances at 567. This projection really hit the nail on the head.
Last year was probably one of the worst seasons that Hiura has ever had hitting the ball for as far as we can look back. His worst season in terms of batting average throughout college and minor league action was in 2018 with the Biloxi Shuckers where he hit a respectable .273 in 73 games.
There’s no need to reiterate his struggles last year as everyone could tell he just wasn’t seeing the ball well, resulting in a bit of a sophomore slump for the Brewers slugger and similar to so many other good hitters during the craziness that was 2020.
His estimated .258 average is essentially split down the middle from his first year with the Brewers where he hit .303 and last year where he hit .212. I could see him hitting higher or lower by not by a huge margin if looking at this conservatively. A .481 SLG% would really prove beneficial as Milwaukee could be lacking in the power department.
In terms of raw numbers, 77 RBI’s might seem a bit low, especially if he’s in the cleanup spot like we estimated. 77 runs seems fine and 28 home runs would come in second on the team behind Christian Yelich according to Baseball Reference.
Kolten Wong
Projection: .260/.343/.386 11 HR 54 RBI 61 R
Ruling: Foul
Kolten Wong was one of the players that gave Brewers fans headaches every time the Brewers played the Cardinals. And not only did he dominate Milwaukee pitching, he did even better in Miller Park.
A slash line of .308/.373/.482 in 57 games is pretty impressive and while the name of the venue did change, everything else remains the same besides the jersey he’s sporting this year. With key pitchers like Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish leaving the division in the offseason, Wong could be a constant threat at the top of Counsell’s lineup card as the everyday second baseman.
Similar to most of the disputes I’ll have with these projections, I think these numbers are too low. Sure, nobody gets superhuman powers when playing at a place where they’ve had success in the past but Wong is coming off a pretty good year at the dish in 2020.
Baseball Reference says his numbers will drop in the area of .005 points for AVG and OBP, it predicts his SLG numbers to climb .040 points interestingly enough. I’d like to see his average climb instead of falling with my own projection around .272/.362/.379.
I think his home run numbers will be a little lower than projected just because 12 is the most he’s had in a season and that was in 2014. And with him being in the one or two spot in the lineup, I think the RBI opportunities won’t be there as much. I’ll guess 8 HR and 43 RBI for the new arrival. He could really excel in runs scored in if the hitters behind him produce like I think they can.
Orlando Arcia
Projection: .235/.297/.367 13 HR 55 RBI 54 R
Ruling: Fair
One of the longest tenured Brewers on the roster, Orlando Arcia will look to build off of a pretty good 2020 campaign. He had a .260 average with his best OBP since 2017 but Baseball Reference expects his hitting to drop fairly considerably.
It’s an important year for Arcia and the club as the two sides agreed to a 1 year $2MM deal in December. There is a pretty lengthy list of guys chomping at the bit behind him including second-ranked prospect, Brice Turang who’s having a solid Cactus League performance.
Whether he’s at third base or shortstop this season, these seem like realistic numbers as he’s hovered around league averages in most categories over the last few years. It seems as though the ceiling is getting lower and lower for the now 26 year old, but the clutch aspect of his game at the plate and the solid defensive play at shortstop over the years have helped keep him with the club despite a lack of eye-popping numbers.
If Luis Urías shows some comfortability at the dish this coming year, it might be difficult for Arcia to reach these numbers. We took a look at how Arcia stacked up against other shortstops around the division and MLB and it really was a solid showing in 2020 for him, but it’s hard to expect he’ll do much better.
Luis Urías
Projection: .238/.326/.370 9 HR 42 RBI 45 R
Ruling: Fair
Let me start off by saying I so badly want to dispute this projection. With the recent struggles of Eric Lauer paired with the slow start for Luis Urías, immediate analysis appears as though the Padres fleeced the Brewers in the trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies away.
In his MLB career, he’s struggled at the plate, but in the minor leagues and foreign ball he’s been a consistent hitter. He has the capability to hit above .275 but we just haven’t seen enough from him yet to say this prediction is wrong.
As mentioned above, the success of Urías sort of depends on the success of Orlando Arcia and vice versa. Whichever of the two encounters early season struggles, the other might be able to cement themselves as the everyday starter.
I would expect to see Urías in the seven or eight hole most of the time he plays, so there could be plenty of chances to score runs. 341 at-bats would be the most of his career in the big leagues so maybe there’s a chance he sees a consistent amount of plate appearances that his comfort level will grow.
Travis Shaw
Projection: .219/.316/.400 19 HR 53 RBI 52 R
Ruling: Fair
This may be the toughest hitter’s projection out of all, in my opinion. I wish I was joking when I say the range of outcomes for Travis Shaw could be as one of the best run producers in the Brewers’ upward trending lineup or that he could hit circa .170 and lose a starting spot.
Last season was a bit of a rebound after the awful 2019 slump he encountered and if he can put up similar numbers for a full 162-game season, he will more than likely stay snug at the hot corner.
Shaw was actually in the 78th percentile in hard hit percentage and the 82nd percentile in exit velocity last year according to Baseball Savant, but was rather average to below average in every other category. Last year, he would have been on pace to hit just under 20 home runs over a full season in Toronto.
The long ball might not be as prominent as usual for a Brewer ballclub this season as three out of their top six home run hitters from a season ago are no longer on the team and recent additions besides Shaw aren’t really known for their power.
I find it hard to believe ‘The Mayor’ will hit .020 points lower this year than last but I also didn’t anticipate it dropping .080 points from 2018-2019. It’s been a bit of a slow start in Cactus League play for Shaw, but if anything, I think this projection is a tad low. He’s just been too inconsistent in the last handful of years to be too confident.
In today’s projection dissection, there are a lot of fair balls mainly because of the unknowns that surround this position unit. It would be nice though, to look back and see that these predictions were too low. But for now, we’ll wait and see.