Brewers: Are 2021 Relief Pitcher Stat Projections “Fair” or “Foul?”

The final Brewers position group projection is upon us and some may say we saved the best for last. The Milwaukee bullpen has been a force to be reckoned with for the last handful of years and is expected to be again in 2021.

The club has plenty of tough choices to make when it comes to who will make the Opening Day roster, but it’s a great problem to have. Not only are there guys that took a huge jump last year that look ready to be consistent major league contributors this year, but there are also prospects that have had tons of success in the Cactus League that you can’t forget about.

We’ll take a look at the nine relievers we most recently projected to make the team along with Ray Black, but don’t be shocked to see another key arm or two added into the mix at some point in the season. As usual, these predictions are courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Batter up! Or pitcher up in this case! We’re the umpire once again, so let’s determine if these Brewers stat projections are “fair” or “foul.”

Josh Hader

Projection: 3-3 / 3.57 ERA / 15 SV / 58.0 IP / 1.069 WHIP

Ruling: Foul

Even the reigning NL saves leader has his doubters. Josh Hader has been one of the best bullpen arms since he joined the big leagues in 2017. I just don’t understand these projected numbers. Sure last year he didn’t have his best year in terms of numbers, but he was still a huge weapon for Craig Counsell.

The 3-3 record I won’t get too bent out of shape about, especially for a closer, because they aren’t generally there to log “wins”. The ERA is just too high though. Before last year, Hader had never had an ERA over 3.00 and then he hit a funk.

Next, I don’t know who in their right mind has him registering only 15 saves in any amount of innings north of 30. He’s typically in there in save situations as a testament to the rest of the arms in the ‘pen. For goodness sake, the guy had 13 last year in 19 innings. That number is just disrespectful.

Lastly, he’s never had a WHIP over 1.000 so I’m not entirely sure why that would climb if they expect his ERA to drop. This is a puzzling prediction. I would guess somewhere around 4-2, 3.23 ERA, 33 SV, 67 IP, and 0.910 WHIP.

Devin Williams

Projection: 5-3 / 3.57 ERA / 63.0 IP / 3.08 K/BB / 1.206 WHIP

Projection: Foul

Has Baseball Reference watched the Brewers bullpen over the last couple years? Once again, an unfair and quite frankly random projection. Let me remind you what these numbers for Devin Williams were last year: 4-1, 0.33 ERA, 27.0 IP, 5.89 K/BB, and a 0.630 WHIP.

I just don’t understand on what grounds you can predict this big of a drop off. Will he replicate these numbers again in 2021? Probably not, but an ERA 10x higher? A WHIP that’s been doubled? Give me a break.

He’s proven to have one of the best pitches in all of baseball and can flat make guys whiff at the dish. Sure, he’s coming off an injury and might get out of the gates a little slow, but when he’s back to full strength I see no reason he can’t be in the Cy Young conversation once again as a reliever. I’ll give “The Airbender” a record of 5-3, a 2.32 ERA, 66.0 IP, 4.5 K/BB, and a 0.884 WHIP.

Brent Suter

Projection: 6-4 / 3.95 ERA / 82.0 IP / 3.38 K/BB / 1.220 WHIP

Ruling: Fair

I could very well see myself being off on this one based on the fact that he had a phenomenal 2019 campaign and a solid year last year. The stats that Baseball Reference gives us might be considered “good” to “average” numbers, but Brent Suter has shown he can be better than that.

He will once again be an innings eater if there is early trouble or an injury to a starter which is a huge luxury for Craig Counsell.

Any ERA above 4.00 I’d have a dispute with but 3.95 seems fine I suppose. I definitely agree with the amount of innings pitched although there could be a discrepancy if for whatever reason he becomes a starter. The K/BB ratio is pretty low considering he’s had an average of around 11 in the last two years, so that might be my only disagreement.

Drew Rasmussen

Projection: 3-2 / 4.50 ERA / 46.0 IP / 2.63 K/BB / 1.348 WHIP

Ruling: Foul

This one might be a little too optimistic but given what I’ve seen in the last month from Drew Rasmussen I think these numbers are foul. Not to mention, he had a stretch of six games in September last season where he didn’t allow a single run.

He has the stuff to be a successful pitcher in this league. So far in Spring, he’s pitched nine and one third innings and has an ERA of 2.89 with 11 punchouts. He’s also only allowed four hits in those nine plus innings. He looks to be ready for Opening Day.

Rasmussen has been in the discussion for a starting spot here and there with his innings getting stretched out, so yet again it’s tough to project a record. His ERA should be closer to four, I believe, as he’s still early in his MLB career and he’ll figure things out to help him get guys out.

I think his innings will definitely be higher as he’s already been stretched out in Cactus League play to see if he has a role as a starter in the future. And his strikeout numbers are just too good right now to see that number where it is for strikeout to walk ratio. I’ll say 4-3, a 4.08 ERA, 66.0 IP, 2.81 K/BB, and a 1.294 WHIP.

Brad Boxberger

Projection: 3-4 / 4.50 ERA / 52.0 IP / 2.16 K/BB / 1.404 WHIP

Ruling: Fair

Nothing that I’ve seen from Brad Boxberger so far in seven Cactus League appearances makes me believe he will do much better than this projection. He did have a pretty solid 2020 campaign with his lowest ERA since 2014 at 3.00 but in 2021, he has one of the highest ERA’s on the club at 10.29. Boxberger will start in the minors but expect him to be one of the first call ups if someone in the bullpen struggles or gets injured.

The interesting thing is he’s looked good in the games in which he hasn’t given up a run. He’s gotten at least one strikeout in every game he’s pitched in so far this spring so the stuff is there, he just needs to avoid the longball.

In the advanced analytics side of it he’s a pretty average pitcher, so if he struggles, look for the Crew to act quickly and look at bringing up one of the many young promising arms in the minors. We’ll find out fairly quickly whether his season with the Marlins last year was a fluke or not, but I don’t have any problem with these predictions.

J.P. Feyereisen

Projection: 2-2 / 4.62 ERA / 37.0 IP / 2.31 K/BB / 1.324 WHIP

Ruling: Fair, but right on the line

The reason this one is deemed fair but fell right on the chalk is because of what he’s been doing down in Arizona. Nobody who has appeared in more games than J.P. Feyereisen has a lower ERA. His currently sits at a miniscule 1.17 with thirteen, yes thirteen, strikeouts in 7.2 innings.

The pride of River Falls, WI gave up his first and only run on a solo home run by Jantzen Witte in his last appearance, having gone 21 hitters without giving up even a single hit prior.

Last year was his first taste in The Bigs, appearing in six games with a 5.79 ERA and seven strikeouts. That’s the reason this ruling isn’t considered foul. Similar to many other Brewer bullpen arms, he doesn’t have the track record to warrant better numbers.

If this Spring is any indication of how he will fare in the upcoming year, the former UW-Stevens Point product could become a fan favorite.

Eric Yardley

Projection: 3-3 / 3.79 ERA / 57.0 IP / 2.39 K/BB / 1.333 WHIP

Ruling: Foul

If I’m following the trend of newer Brewer pitchers with not much MLB experience, Eric Yardley should be a fair ruling. But, he did too well last year to follow that trend. He led the team in appearances and boasted an ERA of 1.54. How can you not reward a guy for doing that?

Unlike some of these guys who were late call-ups and saw success, Yardley was on the big league roster since July 23. The side-armer only gave up two big flies in 2020 and his awkward delivery worked like a charm.

Yardley fits nicely in Milwaukee’s bullpen as there are plenty of hard throwers around him but he only has a fastball with an average velocity of 88 mph. The continuity within the pitching staff could really benefit him once again, which is why I think he’ll outperform these numbers. My guess for him is somewhere around 3-1, a 2.09 ERA, 64.0 IP, 2.46 K/BB, and a 1.189 WHIP.

Ray Black

Projection: 2-2 / 4.65 ERA / 31.0 IP / 2.29 K/BB / 1.355 WHIP

Ruling: Fair

Ray Black is one of four pitchers that have yet to surrender a run during Cactus League play and while he’s only appeared in three games, his stuff looks to have impressed enough to net him a roster spot. With the recent news of Brad Boxberger and Jordan Zimmermann being signed to minor league deals and the injury to Justin Topa, it appears Black will make the Opening Day roster.

These projections are fair. He has a career ERA of 5.53 and has never pitched above 25.0 innings in a season so saying that he’ll see 31.0 innings of action seems about right. He could be one of the guys on a short leash but his velocity has looked good as of late and he could be a surprising piece for the Crew.

As you can see, there’s a lot to be intrigued about when it comes to the Brewers bullpen this year. There are question marks and there are guys that have been around the block a time or two and they could combine into one of the best units in all of baseball.

If the Crew wants any chance of making some noise this year, this group with maybe a couple other players, will need to silence the opposing bats.