Brewers: Are 2021 Relief Pitcher Stat Projections “Fair” or “Foul?”

The final Brewers position group projection is upon us and some may say we saved the best for last. The Milwaukee bullpen has been a force to be reckoned with for the last handful of years and is expected to be again in 2021.

The club has plenty of tough choices to make when it comes to who will make the Opening Day roster, but it’s a great problem to have. Not only are there guys that took a huge jump last year that look ready to be consistent major league contributors this year, but there are also prospects that have had tons of success in the Cactus League that you can’t forget about.

We’ll take a look at the nine relievers we most recently projected to make the team along with Ray Black, but don’t be shocked to see another key arm or two added into the mix at some point in the season. As usual, these predictions are courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Batter up! Or pitcher up in this case! We’re the umpire once again, so let’s determine if these Brewers stat projections are “fair” or “foul.”

Josh Hader

Projection: 3-3 / 3.57 ERA / 15 SV / 58.0 IP / 1.069 WHIP

Ruling: Foul

Even the reigning NL saves leader has his doubters. Josh Hader has been one of the best bullpen arms since he joined the big leagues in 2017. I just don’t understand these projected numbers. Sure last year he didn’t have his best year in terms of numbers, but he was still a huge weapon for Craig Counsell.

The 3-3 record I won’t get too bent out of shape about, especially for a closer, because they aren’t generally there to log “wins”. The ERA is just too high though. Before last year, Hader had never had an ERA over 3.00 and then he hit a funk.

Next, I don’t know who in their right mind has him registering only 15 saves in any amount of innings north of 30. He’s typically in there in save situations as a testament to the rest of the arms in the ‘pen. For goodness sake, the guy had 13 last year in 19 innings. That number is just disrespectful.

Lastly, he’s never had a WHIP over 1.000 so I’m not entirely sure why that would climb if they expect his ERA to drop. This is a puzzling prediction. I would guess somewhere around 4-2, 3.23 ERA, 33 SV, 67 IP, and 0.910 WHIP.

Devin Williams

Projection: 5-3 / 3.57 ERA / 63.0 IP / 3.08 K/BB / 1.206 WHIP

Projection: Foul

Has Baseball Reference watched the Brewers bullpen over the last couple years? Once again, an unfair and quite frankly random projection. Let me remind you what these numbers for Devin Williams were last year: 4-1, 0.33 ERA, 27.0 IP, 5.89 K/BB, and a 0.630 WHIP.

I just don’t understand on what grounds you can predict this big of a drop off. Will he replicate these numbers again in 2021? Probably not, but an ERA 10x higher? A WHIP that’s been doubled? Give me a break.

He’s proven to have one of the best pitches in all of baseball and can flat make guys whiff at the dish. Sure, he’s coming off an injury and might get out of the gates a little slow, but when he’s back to full strength I see no reason he can’t be in the Cy Young conversation once again as a reliever. I’ll give “The Airbender” a record of 5-3, a 2.32 ERA, 66.0 IP, 4.5 K/BB, and a 0.884 WHIP.

Brent Suter

Projection: 6-4 / 3.95 ERA / 82.0 IP / 3.38 K/BB / 1.220 WHIP

Ruling: Fair

I could very well see myself being off on this one based on the fact that he had a phenomenal 2019 campaign and a solid year last year. The stats that Baseball Reference gives us might be considered “good” to “average” numbers, but Brent Suter has shown he can be better than that.

He will once again be an innings eater if there is early trouble or an injury to a starter which is a huge luxury for Craig Counsell.

Any ERA above 4.00 I’d have a dispute with but 3.95 seems fine I suppose. I definitely agree with the amount of innings pitched although there could be a discrepancy if for whatever reason he becomes a starter. The K/BB ratio is pretty low considering he’s had an average of around 11 in the last two years, so that might be my only disagreement.

Freddy Peralta

Projection: 6-4 / 4.56 ERA / 81.0 IP / 2.91 K/BB / 1.296 WHIP

Ruling: Barely Fair

Freddy Peralta will begin the year in the starting rotation but the news was broke after we made the piece on the starters so we’ll include him in the relief pitchers portion for now. The only reason this is fair is because of the inconsistencies that Freddy Peralta has displayed so far as a Brewer. He has one of the highest ceilings on the Milwaukee pitching staff, he just needs to find a way to replicate his success when pitching.

We all know him as “Freddy Fastball,” but his recent tweak to his slider has to have Brewers pitching coach Chris Hook excited. Peralta has looked extraordinary in Cactus League play and just today it was announced that he’s even pitched his way into a starting spot, at least to start the season.

I won’t give any thoughts on his record as I’m not sure if he’ll be a starter or reliever for the entire year but I do think the ERA is a bit high. I don’t see how it climbs after having had an offseason to perfect his new weapon (Bauer-grip slider), but last year was his first year under a 4.00 ERA (3.99) so it’s tough to protest such a number too much.

I don’t have any grievances with his innings because he could ultimately be used similarly to Suter who was projected one more, but his K/BB ratio has to be higher. Last year was a 3.92 and that category has climbed every year for him, look for it to be in the mid to high 4’s.

Justin Topa

Projection: 2-2 / 4.37 ERA / 35.0 IP / 2.85 K/BB / 1.314 WHIP

Ruling: Fair

So far in Spring Training, Justin Topa hasn’t really looked like how he did ending the year last year but I wouldn’t get too bent out of shape about it yet. He also recently injured himself during a simulation game so we should cross our fingers and hope that injury isn’t too serious.

Last year in 7.2 innings pitched, he had a 2.35 ERA and was a guy that Craig Counsell could trust in high pressure situations late in the season despite him being a relatively new addition to the team.

This year there are question marks surrounding Topa and if he can replicate his success from last year so that’s why these projections are okay with me. I’m inclined to think that earned run average will be lower, as he looked plenty dominant against the Dodgers’ hitters but I can live with 4.37.

I think he’ll have more around 50 innings pitched, but maybe if he struggles and gets sent down, that may take away some of that number. Lastly, his WHIP is projected to go up a bit which is fair given the fact that hitters may see him more often.

Drew Rasmussen

Projection: 3-2 / 4.50 ERA / 46.0 IP / 2.63 K/BB / 1.348 WHIP

Ruling: Foul

This one might be a little too optimistic but given what I’ve seen in the last month from Drew Rasmussen I think these numbers are foul. Not to mention, he had a stretch of six games in September last season where he didn’t allow a single run.

He has the stuff to be a successful pitcher in this league. So far in Spring, he’s pitched nine and one third innings and has an ERA of 2.89 with 11 punchouts. He’s also only allowed four hits in those nine plus innings. He looks to be ready for Opening Day.

Rasmussen has been in the discussion for a starting spot here and there with his innings getting stretched out, so yet again it’s tough to project a record. His ERA should be closer to four, I believe, as he’s still early in his MLB career and he’ll figure things out to help him get guys out.

I think his innings will definitely be higher as he’s already been stretched out in Cactus League play to see if he has a role as a starter in the future. And his strikeout numbers are just too good right now to see that number where it is for strikeout to walk ratio. I’ll say 4-3, a 4.08 ERA, 66.0 IP, 2.81 K/BB, and a 1.294 WHIP.

Brad Boxberger

Projection: 3-4 / 4.50 ERA / 52.0 IP / 2.16 K/BB / 1.404 WHIP

Ruling: Fair

Nothing that I’ve seen from Brad Boxberger so far in seven Cactus League appearances makes me believe he will do much better than this projection. He did have a pretty solid 2020 campaign with his lowest ERA since 2014 at 3.00 but in 2021, he has one of the highest ERA’s on the club at 10.29. Boxberger will start in the minors but expect him to be one of the first call ups if someone in the bullpen struggles or gets injured.

The interesting thing is he’s looked good in the games in which he hasn’t given up a run. He’s gotten at least one strikeout in every game he’s pitched in so far this spring so the stuff is there, he just needs to avoid the longball.

In the advanced analytics side of it he’s a pretty average pitcher, so if he struggles, look for the Crew to act quickly and look at bringing up one of the many young promising arms in the minors. We’ll find out fairly quickly whether his season with the Marlins last year was a fluke or not, but I don’t have any problem with these predictions.

Ray Black

Projection: 2-2 / 4.65 ERA / 31.0 IP / 2.29 K/BB / 1.355 WHIP

Ruling: Fair

Ray Black is one of four pitchers that have yet to surrender a run during Cactus League play and while he’s only appeared in three games, his stuff looks to have impressed enough to net him a roster spot. With the recent news of Brad Boxberger and Jordan Zimmermann being signed to minor league deals and the injury to Justin Topa, it appears Black will make the Opening Day roster.

These projections are fair. He has a career ERA of 5.53 and has never pitched above 25.0 innings in a season so saying that he’ll see 31.0 innings of action seems about right. He could be one of the guys on a short leash but his velocity has looked good as of late and he could be a surprising piece for the Crew.

As you can see, there’s a lot to be intrigued about when it comes to the Brewers bullpen this year. There are question marks and there are guys that have been around the block a time or two and they could combine into one of the best units in all of baseball.

If the Crew wants any chance of making some noise this year, this group with maybe a couple other players, will need to silence the opposing bats.