Brewers: The Value Of A Homegrown Starting Rotation

The Milwaukee Brewers have the best starting rotation in baseball. That’s not an opinion, it’s a statistically certified fact, at least through the first 10 games of the 2021 season.

Brewers starting pitchers have a 1.99 ERA over 54.1 IP in the first 10 games of the year, the best mark in baseball by far. The next closest team is the Miami Marlins, with a 2.31 ERA. Milwaukee’s rotation is led by Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, both of whom have had long no-hit bids early on in the season already.

They also have the highest LOB% (Left on base percentage) among big league rotations at 88.9%. The Brewers rotation has the second-lowest H/9 allowed, third-highest strikeout percentage, and the fourth-best xFIP. Simply put, this group has been elite.

What’s even more remarkable about the Brewers rotation’s dominance is how it was built.

The MLB Draft is a vastly overlooked piece of the player acquisition puzzle by fans. It doesn’t get near the attention that the NFL Draft does, since the players are a few years away from contributing at the highest level, but the recent success the Brewers have had on this front is paying big dividends.

Any baseball executive will tell you that the cheapest and best way to get talent in your organization is drafting and developing. Two huge success stories on the Draft front for the Brewers are Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes.

Woodruff was drafted in the 11th round back in 2014 while Burnes was a 4th round pick in 2016. Both have far outperformed their expected draft values and have been better than any of the scouting reports at the time indicated they would be. They had talent, and the Brewers developed them into studs atop the rotation.

Meanwhile, two other young members of the rotation were acquired as prospects and were developed into the starters they are now. Adrian Houser has been with the Brewers since coming over in the Carlos Gomez trade with the Astros in 2015. He was drafted out of high school in the 2nd round in 2011, but the bulk of his development in the rotation has come with the Brewers. Houser feels homegrown even though he was drafted by Houston.

Freddy Peralta was signed by the Seattle Mariners as an international free agent in 2013, and was traded to Milwaukee in 2015 as part of the Adam Lind trade. He was a raw, teenage pitching prospect at the time, and the Brewers developed him into the rotation piece he is now that has allowed just five hits in 13 innings this year.

Brett Anderson is the veteran on the staff, and was signed as a free agent for just $2.5MM this season.

With the arms that the Brewers have, they should continue to be one of the top rotations in baseball going forward, but the kind of bargain value they’re getting will be fleeting.

This rotation’s payroll is not going to stay at such a low level for very long. Woodruff will see a big bump in his second year of arbitration while Burnes and Houser will enter their first years of arbitration after 2021. If Burnes keeps this up, he’ll see a huge pay raise. Peralta’s backloaded deal will continue to push his salary higher, but it’s a modest deal, so the cost won’t be inhibitive.

All four of Woodruff, Burnes, Houser, and Peralta are guaranteed under contract through 2024. Peralta has two club options for 2025 and 2026 as well.

Pretty soon, probably next spring, the Brewers will most likely approach Woodruff and Burnes with contract extensions and try to get some cost-certainty over their top arms for the next few years. David Stearns’ mantra has been to “acquire, develop, and retain” young talent. He has acquired the talent and developed this homegrown rotation into a force. The next step, is to retain them. It began with Peralta. Woodruff and Burnes are next. Those two will cost much more than Peralta’s $15.5MM contract.

The key to sustained success with a homegrown rotation is a pipeline of talent coming through the minor leagues to replenish the big league group with strong arms at a low price. It’s a method the Indians have seemingly perfected in recent years. With arms like Ethan Small and Aaron Ashby close to ready, the Brewers should be in a good payroll position going forward even as Woodruff/Burnes see big pay raises.

Not having to pay free agent prices for starting pitchers will allow the Brewers to spend their money on the rest of the team to ensure the roster around Christian Yelich stays competitive going forward. Having a rotation filled with dependable starters is key to success in October.

With the homegrown rotation pipeline in place, David Stearns has placed the team in an excellent position to remain competitive and in the hunt for a World Series title while working within their means on the payroll. That’s the value of a homegrown starting rotation.

Pitching is too expensive for the Brewers to continuously buy on the free agent market. By developing it themselves, the Brewers can spend less and improve the team.