Brewers: What is the long-term solution at First Base?

Keston Hiura – Club control through 2025

• 2 minor league options remaining
• Career .(241 batting average / .774 OPS)
• 88.9 MPH exit velocity (MLB average: 88.5 MPH)
• 45.9% hard hit rate – MLB average: 39.1%

It’s a small sample size, but first base has been Keston Hiura‘s best defensive position so far. Which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement considering Hiura is still turning in a slightly below league average fielding percentage at that position too.

Second base hasn’t been friendly to Keston Hiura, so Milwaukee will surely invest more time in trying to develop Hiura as a first baseman – and getting his “should be” impact bat back in the lineup. Although, DH would be the ideal home for the former top prospect.

The big areas of concern are the rising strikeout percentage’s that are growing each year. (30.8% in 2019, 34.6% in 2020, 39.4% in 2021) – and the declining hard hit rate (52.9% in 2019, 40.6% in 2020,  39.8% in 2021). So letting Hiura spend this extended time in the minors could be vital in making the necessary adjustments to regain his once promising form.

Keston Hiura owns a career .929 OPS throughout his minor league career, and played exceedingly well in his rookie season. I still firmly believe in the former high pedigree slugger to turn things around – although his leash is getting shorter all the time.

Due to the long-term control and flashes he’s shown, I think Milwaukee is going to give Hiura another shot at first. It may not be without competition, but they won’t give up on him that easy. There will assuredly be teams calling in the winter trying to buy low on the former first round pick.

Dan Vogelbach – Club control though 2024

• Out of minor league options.
• Career (.208 batting average / .735 OPS)
• 88.9 MPH exit velocity (MLB average: 88.5 MPH)
• 43.3% hard hit rate – MLB average: 39.1%
• 15% walk rate – MLB average: 8.5%

I don’t view Daniel Vogelbach as a possible long-term solution for the Crew. However, if the national league adopts the DH, Big Dan just might have a spot in the lineup. Vogelbach, like the others mentioned, is not a slick fielding first-baseman either. The only thing that keeps Vogelbach mentioned as a possible internal candidate is the lack of major league ready options at first base and the fact he has control through 2024 .

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers move on from Daniel Vogelbach in the offseason, but he’s undoubtedly been a fun player who has contributed during his time in Milwaukee.

Free Agency

Brandon Belt – Giants

• Career (.262 AVG / .356 OBP / .815 OPS)

I don’t see first base being a position the Brewers will feel the need to go out and spend big on in free-agency, but the market usually dictates the club’s off-season plans. One player I feel like would be a great fit would be current Giants first basemen, Brandon Belt.

Belt is an approach-first bat who see’s a lot of pitches and would give a defensive improvement over at first base. His annual salary may be too much for the small-market Brewers (there’s also no indication the Giants won’t retain him), but his skill-set aligns with the team’s core values.

Plus, he’s been a pain in the neck for the Brewers this season, and if you can’t beat him, sign him.

Trade candidate

1st baseman – Evan White – Mariners

• 70 grade glove
• Team friendly contract (6 years /$24 million) – contract runs through 2025 then 3 club options that could push the deal to 2028.
• Intriguing underlying numbers
• Career (.165 batting average / .544 OPS)

For a club like the Brewers that’s built around pitching, it might not be the worst idea to kick the tires on a defense first player with some good underlying hitting numbers. Evan White skipped AAA altogether and has had a rough go of it to begin his major league career.

While it’s unlikely the Mariners are willing to move on from a young player they made an long-term investment in – Milwaukee does have a good track record when dealing with their front office. White is absolutely a gamble, but one that comes with plus defense – something the Brewers haven’t had at the position in a while.

Conclusion

I think what you’ll see is Milwaukee turn to an internal option such as Rowdy Tellez or Keston Hiura in 2022 – possibly a combination of sorts. Both players present upside that’s also cost effective for the small market Brewers. The only downside to this option is what you give up on the defensive side, but that’s an area that both players are capable of improvement with a full offseason to prepare.

First base has been a carousel for Milwaukee for a long time. Hopefully they can put an end to that soon, and maybe one of these guys is the solution.