Brewers: What Is The Long-Term Solution At First Base?

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MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 24: Rowdy Tellez #11 of the Milwaukee Brewers up to bat against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field on August 24, 2021 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Brewers defeated the Reds 7-4. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /

The Milwaukee Brewers have been putting band-aids on bullet holes over at first base since Prince Fielder departed in free agency. The Brewers have seen a different player start at first base on opening day every year thereafter, and countless other players have shifted over to cover innings. Which begs the question, who will finally claim that spot long-term?

The Brewers would love to end this revolving door over at first base moving forward, but what are their options? Today we explore what those options may be.

Internal Options

All things considered, Milwaukee isn’t without some potential options at first. As always the Brewers will perform a self scout at the position before looking at external sources of plugging first base. These are the current internal candidates should the Brewers decide to go that route.

Rowdy Tellez – Club control though 2024

1 minor league option remaining
Career (.246 batting average / .770 OPS)
91.3 MPH exit velocity (MLB average: 88.5 MPH)
45.9% hard hit rate – MLB average: 39.1%

Rowdy Tellez was a low-risk, in-season acquisition for David Stearns. The Brewers bought low on a first baseman with a good hit tool and some projectable power, he just needed consistent at-bats.

Rowdy isn’t someone who’s going to see a lot of pitches during an at-bat. But he does put the bat on the ball whenever it’s in the strike-zone – consistently hitting the ball hard. Those underlying numbers are usually indicative of a decent hitter, despite what traditional stats may reflect.

Since joining the club, Rowdy Tellez has slashed (.277 AVG/.346 OBP/.833 OPS) with 7 home runs in just 133 plate appearances. He’s posting career high exit velocity and hard hit rates as well, suggesting he’s still improving at the plate.

Rowdy Tellez is squarely in the mix to be the starting first basemen in 2022. The big reservation here is his below average glove on defense. Should the national league implement the DH, Tellez would be the perfect fit – until then he’s going to have to continue to improve on defense.

Jul 11, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Keston Hiura (18) reacts after striking out in the sixth inning during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

Keston Hiura – Club control through 2025

2 minor league options remaining
Career .(241 batting average / .774 OPS)
88.9 MPH exit velocity (MLB average: 88.5 MPH)
45.9% hard hit rate – MLB average: 39.1%

It’s a small sample size, but first base has been Keston Hiura‘s best defensive position so far. Which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement considering Hiura is still turning in a slightly below league average fielding percentage at that position too.

Second base hasn’t been friendly to Keston Hiura, so Milwaukee will surely invest more time in trying to develop Hiura as a first baseman – and getting his “should be” impact bat back in the lineup. Although, DH would be the ideal home for the former top prospect.

The big areas of concern are the rising strikeout percentage’s that are growing each year. (30.8% in 2019, 34.6% in 2020, 39.4% in 2021) – and the declining hard hit rate (52.9% in 2019, 40.6% in 2020, 39.8% in 2021). So letting Hiura spend this extended time in the minors could be vital in making the necessary adjustments to regain his once promising form.

Keston Hiura owns a career .929 OPS throughout his minor league career, and played exceedingly well in his rookie season. I still firmly believe in the former high pedigree slugger to turn things around – although his leash is getting shorter all the time.

Due to the long-term control and flashes he’s shown, I think Milwaukee is going to give Hiura another shot at first. It may not be without competition, but they won’t give up on him that easy. There will assuredly be teams calling in the winter trying to buy low on the former first round pick.

Dan Vogelbach – Club control though 2024

Out of minor league options.
Career (.208 batting average / .735 OPS)
88.9 MPH exit velocity (MLB average: 88.5 MPH)
43.3% hard hit rate – MLB average: 39.1%
15% walk rate – MLB average: 8.5%

I don’t view Daniel Vogelbach as a possible long-term solution for the Crew. However, if the national league adopts the DH, Big Dan just might have a spot in the lineup. Vogelbach, like the others mentioned, is not a slick fielding first-baseman either. The only thing that keeps Vogelbach mentioned as a possible internal candidate is the lack of major league ready options at first base and the fact he has control through 2024 .

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers move on from Daniel Vogelbach in the offseason, but he’s undoubtedly been a fun player who has contributed during his time in Milwaukee.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 30: Brandon Belt #9 of the San Francisco Giants bats against the Milwaukee Brewers in the bottom of the eighth inning at Oracle Park on August 30, 2021 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

Free Agency

Brandon Belt – Giants

Career (.262 AVG / .356 OBP / .815 OPS)

I don’t see first base being a position the Brewers will feel the need to go out and spend big on in free-agency, but the market usually dictates the club’s off-season plans. One player I feel like would be a great fit would be current Giants first basemen, Brandon Belt.

Belt is an approach-first bat who see’s a lot of pitches and would give a defensive improvement over at first base. His annual salary may be too much for the small-market Brewers (there’s also no indication the Giants won’t retain him), but his skill-set aligns with the team’s core values.

Plus, he’s been a pain in the neck for the Brewers this season, and if you can’t beat him, sign him.

Trade candidate

1st baseman – Evan White – Mariners

70 grade glove
Team friendly contract (6 years /$24 million) – contract runs through 2025 then 3 club options that could push the deal to 2028.
Intriguing underlying numbers
Career (.165 batting average / .544 OPS)

Evan White's current Statcast numbers are wild. Huge K numbers--as one would expect from someone who didn't spend a day in Triple-A and opened against HOU's pitching staff--but when he makes contact, he absolutely punishes the ball. Peep the sprint speed, too. pic.twitter.com/TBNp6IxrNl
— Lookout Landing (@LookoutLanding) July 30, 2020

For a club like the Brewers that’s built around pitching, it might not be the worst idea to kick the tires on a defense first player with some good underlying hitting numbers. Evan White skipped AAA altogether and has had a rough go of it to begin his major league career.

While it’s unlikely the Mariners are willing to move on from a young player they made an long-term investment in – Milwaukee does have a good track record when dealing with their front office. White is absolutely a gamble, but one that comes with plus defense – something the Brewers haven’t had at the position in a while.

Conclusion

I think what you’ll see is Milwaukee turn to an internal option such as Rowdy Tellez or Keston Hiura in 2022 – possibly a combination of sorts. Both players present upside that’s also cost effective for the small market Brewers. The only downside to this option is what you give up on the defensive side, but that’s an area that both players are capable of improvement with a full offseason to prepare.

dark. Next. 5 Underrated Heroes Of The 2021 Brewers

First base has been a carousel for Milwaukee for a long time. Hopefully they can put an end to that soon, and maybe one of these guys is the solution.

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Brewers: What is the long-term solution at First Base?