Milwaukee Brewers Complete 2021-2022 Offseason Preview

Important Dates

These are some of the most important dates to know for the upcoming MLB offseason.

First day after WS ends: Trades are allowed once again and all pending free agents officially file for free agency. There’s a five day window where players are only allowed to negotiate with their team from 2021.

Fifth day after WS ends: This is when free agency officially begins. Players and teams can talk to anyone they want and deals are able to be signed. Although signings rarely experience the kind of rush normally seen in NFL or NBA free agency. Player, club, and mutual option decisions must be made.

Also, on this day, teams must decide if they will give Qualifying Offers to pending free agents. Ten days after that, players must make the decision whether to accept or reject the QO.

November 19th: This date is the deadline for players to be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft at the end of the Winter Meetings. We’ll go into more of the candidates to be added later in the article.

December 1st: This is the biggest day in the baseball offseason calendar this year. This is the non-tender deadline, when teams have to make decisions on whether to tender their arbitration-eligible players a contract for next year. Anyone not tendered immediately becomes a free agent. But there’s another reason this day is key.

December 1st is the day the current CBA expires. If the players’ union and MLB can’t agree on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement by the end of the day, a lockout or strike could be instituted. That would mean a potential halt to all offseason activities and an ugly labor battle. Negotiations would continue until a deal is made, and when a deal happens, whether on December 1st or later, some changes could happen to baseball.

We could see a DH come to the NL next year, we could see changes to arbitration, roster rules, and payroll rules. Hopefully, for the sake of baseball, they can reach a deal by this day.

December 5-9: Provided MLB doesn’t institute a lockout and put a freeze on all offseason activity and cancel them, the Winter Meetings will take place on these dates in Nashville, TN. These meetings are generally chock full of trades and free agent signings, and hopefully we’ll see how teams are reacting to changes in the newly agreed upon CBA.

December 9th: On the final day of the Winter Meetings is the annual Rule 5 Draft. This draft is where teams can select players from other teams’ minor league systems and put them on their own big league roster for a small fee. For the Brewers, this will be more likely about not losing any prospects to other teams rather than selecting someone.

January 14th, 2022: For all the remaining arbitration-eligible players who have not agreed to a salary for the 2021 season, this is the day they will exchange salary figures with the team and file for their preferred salary.

Now let’s take a closer look at free agency!

Brewers 2021-2022 Free Agents (7)

Brett Anderson, John Axford, Brad Boxberger, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Norris, Manny Piña, Hunter Strickland

The Brewers are slated to lose some role players to free agency this year. The biggest star of the group is Eduardo Escobar, who was acquired at the trade deadline in July. David Stearns has stated he’s open to bringing Escobar back despite a crowded field of options at first base and Luis Urias slated to man third base.

Manny Piña is the longest tenured Brewer, but it appears that tenure may be ending. With his recent comments on Instagram about how he’s going to miss Urias and others, he appears to think he won’t be coming back. With Luke Maile and Mario Feliciano at Triple-A ready to take over, that would make some sense.

Brett Anderson has been a key depth piece in the Brewers rotation for the last two years. Anderson always struggled with minor injuries but he was a valuable innings eater and a good veteran presence for the pitching staff. Anderson also appears to recognize his Brewers tenure may be over.

With Aaron Ashby ready for the big leagues, Eric Lauer earning a rotation spot, Ethan Small waiting in the wings, and the Brewers likely heading back to a 5 man rotation, there’s not much for room for Anderson to come back.

All the other free agents are in the bullpen. John Axford has an elbow injury and might just retire, while Daniel Norris was left off the postseason roster and likely will not be wanted back. The key relief arms are Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland. Both pitched important innings down the stretch and there’s a chance the Brewers will want one or both of them back.

Contract Options (2)

Jackie Bradley Jr.(Player), Avisail Garcia (Mutual)

Two Brewers outfielders have contract options for the 2022 season: Jackie Bradley Jr. and Avisail Garcia.

After a career-worst season, hitting just .163 with a .497 OPS, Jackie Bradley Jr.is almost assuredly going to exercise his $9.5MM player option for next year and return to Milwaukee. There is absolutely zero reason for JBJ to opt out and enter free agency this winter after the season he had.

Avisail Garcia, meanwhile, had a career season, slugging 29 homers, hitting .262 with a .820 OPS. He hit enough plate appearances to turn his $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option. So now Garcia can opt out of his side and become a free agent.

Given the season he had, there’s a strong chance he could opt out. Should he do so, he’ll join the list of above Brewers free agents.

If he opts out, the Brewers will be able to give Garcia a Qualifying Offer if they so choose, which is set at $18.4MM this year. It would be a risk to the payroll should Garcia accept it, but if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Brewers get a draft pick as compensation. At 30 years old, Garcia’s best chance to land a long-term deal is right now and will not improve should he wait another season.

Brewers 2022 Arbitration Eligibles (14)

Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, Omar Narvaez, Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Eric Lauer, Luis Urias, Brent Suter, Adrian Houser, Daniel Vogelbach, Rowdy Tellez, Jace Peterson, Luke Maile, Jandel Gustave

This is a very large arbitration class, and one that isn’t likely to be trimmed very much either. This group is filled with core pieces to this team, including growingly expensive options Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff, as well as first-time eligibles Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Eric Lauer, and Adrian Houser.

The Brewers have five players projected to earn salaries of $4MM or higher in 2022, with Josh Hader projected to earn the highest salary of the group, around $10MM.

Woodruff is in his second year of arbitration and his salary is likely to more than double for next season. Omar Narvaez, who took a pay cut ahead of the 2021 season had a tremendous bounceback year and will get a nice raise in his final year of arbitration. Narvaez will be a free agent after the 2022 season, barring a contract extension.

Other first year arbitration eligible players like Burnes, Adames, Lauer, Urias, and Houser are very important pieces of the roster.

Who are the non-tender candidates of this group? It’s a rather short list. With two first basemen eligible for arbitration, plus Keston Hiura still in the organization, one or both of Vogelbach and Tellez could be non-tendered this winter. Luke Maile was a third string catcher that only played in a small handful of big league games in 2021, and he could be on the chopping block as well.

The Brewers do seem to like Jace Peterson, but a growing price tag may lead to try to find utility production elsewhere.

Jandel Gustave was up and down this year, but his price tag isn’t too large and especially with bullpen options like Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland hitting free agency, the Brewers may opt to keep Gustave for depth instead of cutting him loose.

Brewers Rule 5 Eligible Prospects

Korry Howell, Jamie Westbrook, Weston Wilson, Tristen Lutz, Noah Zavolas, Carlos Rodriguez, Je’Von Ward, Victor Castaneda, Ernesto Martinez

While there are plenty more Brewers minor leaguers that are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, these are the more notable names and the ones that might have a chance to be added to the 40 man roster or selected in the Draft this year.

Remember, if a player is selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft, they have to be on the major league roster for the entirety of the next season.

The Brewers do not have any that really stand out as players that need to be protected from the big league portion of the Draft this year, and none are really high rated prospects.

Korry Howell is the highest rated (No. 15 on MLB Pipeline) of the group and one of the more advanced, reaching Double-A this season. He did slug 16 homers and swipe 24 bases this season, but hit .244 with a 37% strikeout rate across High-A and Double-A.

Carlos Rodriguez is another highly rated prospect (No. 22 on MLB Pipeline) that is eligible, but he played the entire 2021 season in High-A Wisconsin. His production was solid, but as a 20 year old in High-A, is there a chance anyone would really select him? That’s the question the Brewers will have to take and if they believe he can move quick enough to be worthy of a 40 man roster spot for a year or two and burn those option years.

The closest to “big league ready” type of guys are not highly rated prospects. Players such as Weston Wilson and Jamie Westbrook are certainly close enough to be given an opportunity with another club for an entire season, but will the Brewers still want to keep them or risk losing them?

Other players such as Ernesto Martinez, Victor Castaneda, Tristen Lutz, Je’Von Ward, and Noah Zavolas are not likely to be protected and the chances of them being taken are rather small.

The Rule 5 Draft may be fairly uneventful for the Brewers in the major league portion this season, and when the deadline comes on November 19th to add players to the 40 man roster, there also may not be much movement. No one in this group is a slam dunk addition to the 40 man.

Brewers Positions Of Need

Every offseason, there’s positions that need to be addressed. They generally change every year, but for whatever reason, the Brewers have at least one need that pops up just about every winter.

Figure out First Base

The Brewers have no shortage of options at first base currently at their disposal. Rowdy Tellez and Daniel Vogelbach are both arbitration-eligible and have three more years of team control, while Keston Hiura has even more years of control and was slated to be the starting first baseman this season before a horrible slump led to him losing that job.

But Hiura will be back next year, and if he performs at the level he’s expected to, then first base is in good hands. But if he doesn’t, then what? There’s a strong chance one or both of the Vogelbach/Tellez combo are not brought back, and there’s little other options in the minors.

Eduardo Escobar is a free agent. David Stearns has said to not close the door on a reunion with Escobar, and that could help fill at first base if Hiura is unable to get to his 2019 form.

Of course, there’s the option, albeit the unlikely one, that Milwaukee could go sign someone like Freddie Freeman or Anthony Rizzo in free agency. Stearns could simply bypass his current options and bring in someone proven from outside the organization to solidify first base.

Add Power to the lineup

The typically home run-happy Brewers were not so home run-happy in 2021. In previous years, the Brewers have had multiple 30+ HR hitters in their lineup, yet they had none in 2021. Avisail Garcia was the closest with 29 long balls, but he’s also likely heading to free agency this winter.

The next highest home run hitters in the lineup are Luis Urias with 23 and Willy Adames, who had 20 with the Crew and five with Tampa Bay before arriving here.

An obvious key to increasing the power output of this lineup is finding where Christian Yelich’s power went. If he can get back to the 30+ home run type hitter that he was in 2018 and 2019, then that helps solve the problem. The same goes for Keston Hiura, who also has the power to hit 30+ homers a season but lost his ability to hit for power or average for that matter in 2021.

If those two get their power back, then the offense should be solid, but it couldn’t hurt to add another power bat to the group. First base is a traditionally power-focused offensive position, so solving Need 1 could lead into solving Need 2 at the same time.

This is another spot where the return of Eduardo Escobar could also help. Not only did Escobar play first base in 2021, but he also slugged 28 homers between the Diamondbacks and Brewers.

Replenish Bullpen Depth

Throughout the course of the 2021 season, the Brewers depth in the bullpen was continually tested. Now, entering an offseason where they’re slated to lose three relievers to free agency: Brad Boxberger, Hunter Strickland, and Daniel Norris. Two of them were key pieces to the bullpen, and the other was Daniel Norris.

It also seems like every offseason the Brewers scour the bullpen market and find a solid option or two to add to their group. They will need to do so again this winter. Jake Cousins and Miguel Sanchez stepped up into some big roles but there will be openings in this bullpen that they’ll need to replenish.

Sort out the Outfield

If Avisail Garcia elects free agency and doesn’t return, then the Brewers have Yelich, Cain, and JBJ as highly paid outfielders under contract with Tyrone Taylor deserving of opportunities. Taylor will be paid near league minimum while probably being the best internal option to handle right field. Entering his age-28 season, Taylor hasn’t been a full time starter in the big leagues before and trusting him with that role is risky.

Will they keep both Cain and Bradley? That’s an expensive duo in centerfield for a platoon or for either to not be an everyday player. Could they look to trade one of them for salary relief? That would also drastically change this outfield’s alignment.

The Brewers could look to an outside option to fill the outfield gap for a year before some of the Crew’s top outfield prospects are ready to take over.

Regardless, with the likely departure of Avisail Garcia, the Brewers have to figure out how they want to best configure the outfield for 2022.

Brewers 2022 Payroll Outlook

The Brewers finished the 2021 season with an estimated $103MM payroll, slightly higher than the non-prorated 2020 payroll was slated to be. Despite coming off a season with no fans, the Brewers did add some payroll. Free agent additions Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr.played a key role in that.

Will the payroll continue to increase for the Brewers in 2022? If so, by how much? The Brewers are going to have those discussions over the coming weeks and owner Mark Attanasio will get a sense of how much money is available for David Stearns to spend this winter.

Currently, Fangraphs projects the Brewers to have a $112MM payroll for next season and that’s without any free agent or trade additions. That large arbitration class of core players and relatively few big salaries falling off the books in free agency is going to cut into the Brewers wiggle room with the payroll. Also, Christian Yelich’s extension kicks in next year and he’ll earn $26MM in 2022.

The Brewers set a record payroll of $134MM in 2019, and it’s unlikely they would push past that in 2022 given their financial circumstances from the past two seasons.

This year, the Brewers did have fans back and were Top 10 in the league in attendance. With the return of revenue streams, even if not at 100% for the entirety of the season, the Brewers were able to recover at least some financial losses.

With the team seemingly inching ever closer to having a World Series caliber roster, dropping payroll doesn’t appear to be an option. Staying stagnant isn’t an option either. They have to add to the payroll, at least a little bit.

At this point, and this is still early, I would expect a Brewers 2022 payroll somewhere in the $120MM-$130MM range.

This gives them the room to add to the payroll a little from the current projection of $112MM before any additions, whether with a free agent signing or two, or a potential trade. They don’t appear likely to push to $135MM+, which would be a new franchise record, and they have to add, leading to my belief that they’ll be in the $120-130MM range.

Attanasio always has room in the payroll for midseason acquisitions and he’ll do so again in 2022, but I’d expect the payroll to start out in that range.

This offseason is sure going to be interesting, and we could see some big changes to this Brewers roster and to the game of baseball itself. Let’s get going.