Brewers: Expectations And Projections For The Starting Rotation In 2022

Last season, we saw the greatest starting rotation in the history of the Brewers franchise. In total, they set or tied 77 MLB and franchise records. It felt like no matter who was on the bump, opposing teams were going to have to have their work cut out for them in order to scratch across any runs.

The rotation was led by Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes with Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta being very dominant as well. Adrian Houser additionally had a career year and Eric Lauer pitched incredibly well in the second half of the season.

Thankfully, that same group of pitchers is set to return in 2022. Due to the MLB lockout, we’re not sure when we will get to see these pitchers on the mound carving up hitters again. However, Dan Szymborski recently posted his projections for the Crew in 2022. Szymborski’s projection model is known as ZiPS, and a few other observations on his projections can be found here.

According to the ZiPS projections, the Brewers starting rotation consisting of the five players mentioned earlier, will produce an fWAR of 16.4. In comparison, this group had a 19.4 fWAR in 2021.

Yes, you are reading that correctly. Milwaukee’s beloved starting rotation from last season is expected to perform three points lower in 2022. You might find yourself asking “How is that possible?”. As mentioned earlier, let’s try to make some sense of this by remembering how special last year’s Crew was.

To begin, Corbin Burnes began 2021 issuing 58 strikeouts before allowing a walk. He later went on to have a 15 strikeout game including 10 K’s in a row. Burnes then pitched eight innings in the team’s first ever combined no-hitter against Cleveland. In total, Burnes was responsible for setting or tying 45 MLB or franchise records.

Of the others, Brandon Woodruff was responsible for setting 10 out of the 77 Brewer/MLB records broke last year. Freddy Peralta set one more record than Woodruff with 11. Let’s also not forget that Adrian Houser was the first pitcher since Kyle Lohse in 2014 to throw a complete game shutout.

The point here is that we should not be surprised to see our starting pitching core projected to be “worse” in 2022. To repeat what they did last year would be a very tough task, but they still should be very good and have the potential to outperform Szymborski’s projections.

Throughout the remainder of this article, we will take a further look at each starter’s individual projections.

Corbin Burnes – 2022 ZiPS Projection: 5.2 fWAR

Of the Brewers starting pitchers, Burnes’ 2022 ZiPS projections vs his 2021 actual fWAR has the biggest drop off. This is mainly due to how insanely good he was last season in which during his Cy Young season, he recorded the highest fWAR among pitchers at 7.5. Zack Wheeler was a close second at 7.3, but then there was a big decrease following that in which Walker Buehler was at 5.5 and Max Scherzer 5.4.

To expect Burnes to repeat and post an fWAR near 7.5 again would be unfair. However, over the past two seasons, Burnes has been pitching at an elite level. During the shortened 60 game season in 2020, he posted a 2.4 fWAR. If he continues to pitch well, surpassing 5.2 fWAR in 2022 could be within reach, but if he doesn’t and ends up near five that is still a very solid season.

Brandon Woodruff – 2022 ZiPS Projection: 4.9 fWAR

In this projection model, Woodruff gets a .2 increase in 2022 when compared to his 4.7 fWAR in 2021. This is exciting considering that last year Woodruff covered 179 innings for the Brewers while recording a 2.56 ERA. Of his 30 starts, he actually ended with a losing record as a pitcher at 9-10 due to often times being plagued with little run support.

One way Woodruff could see an even further uptick in fWAR next year is by pitching more innings. He is often times viewed as “the horse” for the Brewers, but following a shortened 2020 season a six man rotation was adopted last season which may have prevented him from surpassing the 200 innings pitched mark. It is unclear what the Crew’s intentions will be for the upcoming season.

Woodruff did finish fifth in Cy Young voting last season, so if these projections come to fruition then he would one of the top candidates for the award again.

Freddy Peralta – 2022 ZiPS Projection: 3.4 fWAR

Speaking of innings pitched, Freddy Peralta set a career high in innings pitched in 2021, but could benefit from throwing even more. Last year, his 144 innings was just short of being able to qualify for any major awards, but he still managed to have a fWAR of 4.0. To see his projection over a half win lower than this for 2022 is a bit puzzling.

Along with preventing runs from being scored, Peralta excelled at limiting hits last season. Along with pitching more innings, walks and avoiding the big inning seem to be Peralta’s two areas of focus for 2022. If he can build upon his impressive 2021 season, he should surpass Szymborski’s projection of 3.4.