Brewers: 5 Bold Predictions for the 2022 Season

It’s that time of year again! It’s time for some Brewers bold predictions.

The 2022 season is a few days away from getting started, and it’s a season full of wonder and mystery. There’s 162 games to be played, everyone is starting at 0-0 all with equal mathematical chances of winning the division, making the postseason, and winning the World Series. Anything can happen.

Last season, a few of my bold predictions actually ended up coming true. Freddy Peralta established himself as the No. 3 starter (remember, he barely got a rotation spot out of camp to start last year), the Brewers did throw their first no-hitter since 1987, and Corbin Burnes finally did win the Cy Young award. I’d been predicting that for three years now, and the third time was the charm.

So my hit rate on these bold predictions are increasing, so what I’m predicting here for 2022 may actually happen. Time will only tell.

With the Milwaukee Brewers 2022 season approaching, here are 5 bold predictions for what will happen over the course of the year.

Brewers 2022 Bold Prediction #1: Brewers win back-to-back Cy Youngs

Finally, we’ve reached success with the Cy Young prediction. So why not go back to that tree again since it’s now bearing fruit.

Corbin Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young award after a remarkable season in which he lead the league in ERA, ERA+, FIP, K/9, HR/9, and K/BB. One might wonder how Burnes could top last season, but he feels he can do so. He’s fine-tuned his routine between starts and is looking to feature his improved changeup a little more this season.

Burnes enters the 2022 season as one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young again.

Especially with Mets ace Jacob deGrom expected to miss the first two months of the season, Burnes stands a solid chance to win again. That said, there are several other contenders, and it was a close vote in 2021. Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Walker Buehler are all solid candidates as well.

Plus, the Brewers have a couple candidates along with Burnes. Brandon Woodruff finished 5th last year and is a candidate to jump into that top crowd as well. There’s also Freddy Peralta, whom some here at Reviewing the Brew believe has a Cy Young campaign in him this year. Peralta would’ve had the lowest H/9 in MLB history last season had he thrown enough innings to qualify. His stuff is legit and nasty and he could sneak in as well with a full season.

The Brewers have three strong Cy Young candidates and while I’m still driving the Corbin Burnes train, it’s important to recognize that the Brewers have other quality candidates as well and thus the prediction is that the Brewers will have back-to-back Cy Young winners. Will it be Burnes? Peralta? Woodruff? It could be any one of those three.

Brewers 2022 Bold Prediction #2: Willy Adames, Luis Urias each slug 30 home runs

Losing Luis Urias for the first week or two of the regular season may hurt this prediction, but I’m sticking with it.

Last season, we saw a power surge from infielders Willy Adames and Luis Urias. Adames hit 25 bombs last year, 20 of them coming after the Brewers acquired him in late May, and Urias ended up with 23 home runs as his power developed, especially over the second half of the season.

I’m choosing to believe in that power surge we saw and that it will carry over into 2022. Urias came into camp looking much stronger, especially in the upper body. With his new role as the everyday third baseman when he returns, Urias is going to need to supply power in the lineup from that position. He appears ready to do so and showed us a glimpse of that last year.

Adames, with a full season away from the offensive black hole that is Tropicana Field, should also see his overall season numbers improve. He hit 25 last year spending nearly the entire first two months with Tampa Bay. A full season in Milwaukee could push that number over 30.

Despite the general underperformance of the offense last season, the Brewers do have a ton of power potential in their lineup. Urias and Adames are two players that wouldn’t historically be thought of as 30 home runs a season type of hitters, but they’re displaying signs that they could be.

The Brewers didn’t have any hitter last year with 30 home runs as Avisail Garcia led the club with 29. That could, and likely should, change in 2022. Hunter Renfroe, Andrew McCutchen, Rowdy Tellez, Adames, Urias, and rebound candidates Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura all have the potential to hit 30+ bombs this year.

Speaking of those rebound candidates in Yelich and Hiura…

Brewers 2022 Bold Prediction #3: Keston Hiura bounces back to 2019 form, but Christian Yelich does not

Typically I try not to be cynical in these bold predictions. I prefer making positive predictions about just how great this team and these players are going to be. But that is not the case here. This is the rare case where I want my prediction to not come true.

Throughout spring training, we’ve seen an improved Keston Hiura. He’s toned down his leg kick, has a renewed focus, and has seen results quickly. Hiura leads the club in home runs in Cactus League play with four long balls. He’s hitting the ball hard, making consistent contact, and is 9-for-22 (.409 BA) with 10 RBIs and six extra-base hits.

Hiura is a young hitter that’s made some changes and even though spring training success doesn’t mean regular season success, it has to do wonders for his confidence and his 2019 form should be easier to replicate.

In 2019, Hiura hit .303 with a .938 OPS, 138 OPS+, and 19 home runs in 84 games. This spring, Hiura has a 1.545 OPS. The sample size is small and it is spring, but there is clear cause for optimism with Hiura.

Christian Yelich, meanwhile, has not made any mechanical adjustments it seems, and has been pretty quiet on what he’s looking to change from last season to this year. So far in spring, he had a .693 OPS in 25 ABs, again it’s a small sample size and it’s spring training, but given the struggles last year, seeing some immediate positive results would be nice.

Yelich has still been hitting a lot of balls weakly to the right side of the infield. He’s dumped in some base hits but hasn’t really been driving the ball or hitting it hard. He’s not hitting it into the air that much and getting carry on the baseball, which is what led to his major success in 2018 and 2019. Until he starts to do that, reaching his 2019 form again will be impossible.

Let’s remember how ridiculous Yelich’s 2019 season was. He hit .329/.429/.671 with 44 homers, an 1.100 OPS, and a 179 OPS+. Those numbers are unreal. Reaching that level of performance again will be difficult, even when things are going right.

Expecting Yelich to reach that 2019 level of performance again may be too much of an ask. I’d love to see him do it. I hope he does it. But maybe we should be expecting something closer to his level of performance with the Marlins where he didn’t supply much power. Simply getting base hits and hitting the ball hard, whether in the air or not, would vastly improve the Brewers offense from last year.

If both players bounce back, this Brewers team is lethal, if just one of them bounces back to 2019 form, this offense is still greatly improved from last year. The Brewers are depending on bounce backs from these two guys, but I predict they’ll only get it from one of them.

Brewers 2022 Bold Prediction #5: Brewers throw a perfect game

Last year I went bold and called for a no-hitter. On September 11th, it happened as Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader combined for a no-hitter, the franchise’s first since Juan Nieves in 1987, breaking a 34 year stretch between no-nos.

The success on that bold prediction has further emboldened me.

This year, I’m kicking it up a notch from predicting a no-hitter to predicting a perfect game. That’s right, a perfecto!

There have been 23 perfect games in MLB history. The most recent came in 2012 when Felix Hernandez of the Mariners tossed one. There were somehow three perfect games that season with Matt Cain and Philip Humber throwing the other two.

We’ve gone almost a decade now between perfect games in MLB, the longest such streak since 1968-81 where there was a 13 year drought from Catfish Hunter’s perfecto in 1968 to Len Barker’s in 1981.

The Brewers have probably the best chance of any organization to throw one this season with this rotation as strong as it is and filled with Cy Young candidates as stated in bold prediction #1.

After breaking a franchise drought that lasted a long time last year, perhaps this year the Brewers will break a long MLB drought. The Big 3 of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta may be the popular candidates, but it could come from anywhere. Remember, Adrian Houser was the one who broke the Brewers complete game drought last year.

All it takes is one game with everything working and a whole bunch of luck for a perfect game to come to fruition. You don’t have to be an all-time ace to throw one. After all, Philip Humber and Dallas Braden have thrown perfect games just as often as all-time greats Randy Johnson and Roy Halladay.

So, just like last year in which I did not predict which specific pitcher would throw a no-hitter, I will not predict which specific pitcher will throw a perfecto this year. I may be bold, but I’m not crazy.

Throwing a no-hitter is far more common than a perfect game, and predicting when one will happen or who exactly will throw it is pretty much impossible. But I’ll throw it out there. If there’s one pitching staff to bet one to throw one this year, it’s the Brewers.

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The 2022 season is going to be fascinating and a fun one to watch for Brewers fans. Keep these bold predictions in mind as we go through the season as some of them just might come true when we get to the end of 162 games.