What Are The Milwaukee Brewers 2023 MLB Draft Lottery Odds?
You feeling lucky? Hopefully the Brewers will get lucky in the first year of the MLB Draft Lottery, as they will be participants.
In the CBA that was agreed to earlier this spring, MLB will begin a draft lottery for the first six positions in the MLB Draft. The 18 non-playoff teams, of which the Brewers are one of them, will be entered into a lottery for a chance to get a top six selection.
This is welcome news for the Brewers as it gives them a chance to get a top six overall pick, including potentially the number one overall selection, instead of picking in the back half of the first round.
But that doesn’t mean the odds are good.
Due to having the best record among non-playoff teams, the Milwaukee Brewers odds of winning the 2023 MLB Draft Lottery are 0.23%
There were 18 non-playoff teams. The Brewers had the best record and best winning percentage of all of them at 86-76, which gives them the 18th-best odds to win the Draft Lottery. So they have a whopping 0.23% chance of getting the number one overall pick. That isn’t high, but it’s higher than 0%, which is where they would’ve been prior to the creation of the lottery.
0.23% means that in 1,000 simulations of the MLB Draft Lottery, the Milwaukee Brewers would win the top pick in the draft just two times. Well, 2.3 times to be exact.
However, this isn’t just for the top pick that they could move up for. The Brewers could be selected for the 2nd pick, or the 3rd, or 4th, 5th, or 6th. That’s six opportunities with a 0.23% chance at each one. Multiply 0.23% by six and the Brewers actually have a 1.38% chance of getting a top six pick.
A 1.38% chance means that in 1,000 simulations of the MLB Draft Lottery, the Brewers would win a top six overall pick in the draft 13 times. Well, 13.8 times to be exact.
It could happen. The odds are long, the longest odds of any of the teams eligible for the lottery. But it’s a chance to move up and help continue to supplement this farm system with a real blue chip talent. They haven’t had a selection in the top six since 2016 when they picked 5th overall.
The Draft Lottery itself will take place at the 2022 MLB Winter Meetings this December. That’s when we will learn the fate of where the Brewers will pick in the upcoming 2023 MLB Draft.
If they don’t win a lottery pick, the Brewers will have the 18th overall selection. Because they are the winningest non-playoff team, no one with worse odds can jump them and push the Brewers further back in the draft order. They will either pick 18th or in the top six.
Milwaukee certainly didn’t envision being a part of this lottery this year, but with a little luck, maybe they can win a spot.