What Are The Brewers Arbitration Projections For 2023?

The majority of the Milwaukee Brewers active roster find themselves going through arbitration this winter. In total, 18 Brewers are arbitration-eligible this winter and there are only 26 active roster spots.

Payroll has been going up and up the last few years for the Brewers, yet the team hasn’t been getting much better on the whole. The reason for that is the sheer number of players the Brewers have that are arbitration eligible.

MLB Trade Rumors released their annual arbitration projections. Here’s what the Crew’s players are projected to earn next year with their 2022 salary in parentheses.

The Brewers have 18 players going through arbitration for the 2023 season. What are their projected salaries for next year?

Corbin Burnes – $11.4MM projected ($6.5MM in 2022)

Corbin Burnes followed up his 2021 Cy Young winning campaign with another stellar season, leading the league in strikeouts with 243, posting a 2.94 ERA in 202 IP, and a 0.96 WHIP while making all 33 starts.

That’s going to earn him another hefty bump, with a projected near-doubling of his salary up to $11.4MM. That’s a raise of nearly $5MM, and these are just projections so it could even be more than this.

It could also turn into a lot more money for Burnes if the Brewers decide to pursue a contract extension and sign him to one. His salary is only going to go up and up from here, and this projected salary is still a bargain.

Hunter Renfroe – $11.2MM projected ($7.65MM)

Hunter Renfroe had a good first season in Milwaukee. He performed about as expected, providing excellent defense in right field and supplying a lot of power from the right side of the plate. Renfroe slugged 29 homers and hit a solid .255, which was the best batting average among the Brewers regulars.

He’s earned yet another solid raise heading into his final year of arbitration eligibility. After the 2023 season, Renfroe will be a free agent.

With such a high salary, even though Renfroe has been productive and a quality player, perhaps he could be a trade candidate this winter.

Brandon Woodruff – $11MM projected ($6.8MM)

After a sluggish start, Brandon Woodruff bounced back and put together another spectacular season on the mound. Woodruff had a 3.05 ERA in 153.1 IP with 190 strikeouts.

Woodruff and Burnes are projected at similar salaries as the co-aces have both dominated the last few years, although Woodruff is entering his third year of arbitration and Burnes is going into his second. Woodruff is a Super Two player.

Again, the price for Woodruff could be higher than this, especially if the Brewers work out a contract extension with him.

Brewers arbitration salary projections for 2023

Willy Adames – $9.2MM projected ($4.6MM)

Brewers shortstop Willy Adames is projected to see his salary double heading into 2023, with a $4.6MM raise up to $9.2MM. Good shortstops are always in high demand and Adames certainly qualifies, that drives up his price tag.

Adames is another player who would make a lot of sense as an extension candidate, especially since the Brewers have been searching for a long term answer at shortstop for a long time. Adames struggled this season, but still ended up with 31 doubles, 31 homers, and 98 RBIs. That’s pretty good for a year where he had so many struggles at the plate.

Adames is slated to be a free agent following the 2024 season.

Rowdy Tellez – $5.3MM projected ($1.94MM)

Rowdy Tellez sees a big raise for himself coming in 2023 after slugging 35 homers for the Crew this year. He hit just .219 but had a .767 OPS and 115 OPS+ to go with 89 RBIs.

It appears the Brewers may have finally found their answer at first base. Tellez may not end up ever hitting for a high average, but he supplies power and presence in the middle of Milwaukee’s lineup. If they believe him to be their first baseman going forward, this projected salary will be no issue.

However, if the Brewers believe Tellez needs to be platooned to be best utilized or that he isn’t the guy going forward, a $5.3MM salary may be too rich. He played in 153 games and got nearly 600 plate appearances in 2022, so don’t expect that to be the case. It should be a nice raise for Rowdy in 2023.

Eric Lauer – $5.2MM projected ($2.425MM)

Eric Lauer posted a solid season in 2022, although not quite as good as the year before. He had a 3.69 ERA in 29 starts, covering 158.2 IP. He was a reliable arm and he’ll receive a nice salary bump in 2023 because of it.

Lauer has come along nicely after his rough Brewers debut season in 2020 and the 27 year old has proven he can be a trusted arm in the middle of Milwaukee’s rotation. With everyone healthy, Lauer is the number four starter, and the Brewers could certainly do a lot worse than having Lauer as their fourth starter.

Luis Urias – $4.3MM projected ($2.55MM)

Urias didn’t have quite as good a year in 2022 as he did in 2021, seeing some regression in his numbers across the board. His power dropped back a little, and so did his batting average and on-base percentage. His BA dipped from .249 to .239 and his OBP from .345 to .335. Urias slugged 16 homers in 2022.

He still posted a 3.1 bWAR, which is a very productive player. Given his WAR and the fact that he’s still just 25 years old and a talented player, he’s likely to stick around at this price tag. He hasn’t secured the starting third base job heading into 2023, but this is a reasonable salary the Brewers are likely to pick up.

Adrian Houser – $3.6MM projected ($2.425MM)

Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer both had the same arbitration salary in 2022, but it’s clear Lauer outperformed Houser this year, and that’s reflected in his much higher projected arbitration salary.

Houser will see a modest raise after a season where he struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness with his sinker. He went from a 3.22 ERA in 142.1 IP last year to a 4.73 ERA in 102.2 IP in 2022. He ended up with a -0.8 bWAR.

With the development of Aaron Ashby, who is already signed to a team-friendly contract extension, there may not be much room in the rotation going forward for Houser. Houser has likely slipped to 6th on the depth chart, with prospects Ethan Small and Robert Gasser not far behind.

Brewers arbitration salary projections for 2023

Devin Williams – $3.2MM projected ($714,500)

Brewers closer Devin Williams is entering his first season of arbitration. As the freshly installed closer with only 18 career saves to his name, he’s not likely to get paid like the All Star reliever that he is. Josh Hader didn’t rack up many saves in his pre-arb years, which led to a nasty arbitration hearing between the two sides.

Williams already had his contract “renewed” for 2022 as a symbol of his displeasure of his pre-arb salary offer. You’ll notice that $714,500 salary for last year is just $14,500 above league-minimum. For a player that won Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year in 2020 and had clearly become one of their most trusted arms.

Williams gets a nice raise here, and his salary will only continue to grow, but it’s $10MM lower than Josh Hader’s projected $13.6MM salary for next year.

Brent Suter – $3.1MM projected ($2.7MM)

It’s another slight salary bump for the longest tenured Brewers player. Brent Suter is entering his final year of arbitration and the 33 year old had a solid 2022 season. He finished with a 3.78 ERA in 66.2 IP.

Suter is a trusted and reliable arm for Craig Counsell out of the bullpen and an important leader in the clubhouse. He’ll most likely be brought back on this salary, get a nice raise, and fill his role out of the bullpen.

Victor Caratini – $2.8MM projected ($2MM)

For a while, Victor Caratini was an unsung hero on this Brewers roster. He ended up getting the most of the catching platoon between him and Omar Narvaez, even after only being acquired the day before Opening Day. Caratini ended the first half hitting .244/.362/.441 with an .803 OPS.

However, the second half was not so kind, as Caratini hit just .159 down the stretch with a paltry .479 OPS. Caratini finished the season with a .199 batting average and a .642 OPS.

Still, he’s entering his final year of arbitration before free agency and he provides value as a defensive catcher, putting up a 0.6 bWAR on the year. With Omar Narvaez also coming off a down year and entering free agency, it’s likely Caratini is brought back, even with his poor second half.

Matt Bush – $2MM projected ($825k)

The Brewers acquired Matt Bush at the deadline and part of what attracted them to him was that he still had two more years of arbitration remaining. He wasn’t able to replicate his success he was having with the Rangers when he joined the Brewers, however. He ended up with a 4.30 ERA in 23 games for Milwaukee.

While not as good as hoped for, Bush wasn’t a complete disaster and they do love his stuff. Perhaps not having to move teams midseason and now having some time to adjust to his new team will help Bush have a rebound performance in 2023. Combined with his Rangers stats, Bush had a 3.47 ERA this year, which is deserving of a nice raise to a few million bucks.

Keston Hiura – $2MM projected ($705,100)

Keston Hiura’s case will be one of the most interesting ones to watch this offseason. Will they trade him? Will they keep him? Will they non-tender him at this price? The Brewers didn’t really give Hiura much run as a regular starter, especially against right-handed pitching.

This is the first year of arbitration for Hiura. There are clear issues with his performance, both offensively and defensively. But, he’s got 50 home runs to his name already, with double-digit homers in three of his four big league seasons and he posted a 115 OPS+ in 2022.

Hiura will see a nice little bump in pay, but will the Brewers be willing to be the ones to pay it. Time will tell as the offseason unfolds.