Brewers 2022-23 Offseason Preview: Free Agents, Options, Arbitration, and More

Brewers 2022-23 Free Agents (8)

Andrew McCutchen, Jace Peterson, Omar Narvaez, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Rosenthal, Pedro Severino, Jonathan Davis, Josh Lindblom

The Brewers have a couple of key players hitting free agency this winter.

The highest paid player of this group is Andrew McCutchen, who made $8.5MM in 2022. Milwaukee signed him to a one year deal this spring to much surprise considering the Crew’s crowded outfield picture but also to much celebration from ownership who “stretched the budget” to sign him. While McCutchen is a likable personality and a good leader in the clubhouse, he disappointed at the plate and didn’t mash lefties like he was brought in to do. Given that and the growing crowd in that outfield, expect McCutchen to play elsewhere in 2023.

Jace Peterson, “On Base Jace” as he’s affectionately known to many, has reached free agency. He’s served well in a utility role for the Brewers and has been a good presence in the clubhouse. He could parlay that into a decent payday on the open market but he’s unlikely to get a starting job either in Milwaukee or anywhere else. With Mike Brosseau capable of stepping into Peterson’s role, the Brewers may be willing to let Peterson walk but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he comes back on a one year deal.

Omar Narvaez couldn’t have picked a worse time to have a terrible season at the plate. He was solid in 2021 with some power and hitting for a decent average, but Narvaez toiled around the Mendoza line in 2022 with just four home runs. Victor Caratini ended up taking the most ABs for the Brewers at catcher this year because of Narvaez’s struggles. With young Mario Feliciano ready for a big league job, Milwaukee is likely to let Narvaez walk this offseason and won’t think twice about it.

The Brewers acquired Taylor Rogers as the immediate replacement for Josh Hader. The issues with that trade have been thoroughly discussed, but one of the issues that hasn’t been talked about as much is that Rogers will hit free agency a year before Hader does. Rogers made $7.3MM in 2022 between the Padres and Brewers and even though he didn’t perform all that well in Milwaukee, he’s still likely to get a decent payday in free agency. Will the Brewers give it to him and bring him back after they weren’t willing to pay Hader? Likely not.

Signing Rogers would be odd considering what he would demand and that the Brewers are adamant that Devin Williams is going to be their closer. Rogers isn’t going to get big money from Milwaukee to be a set up guy or on a closer by committee. Letting Rogers walk would also be a bad look considering he was a key part of such a massive trade, but the Brewers made this bed for themselves, now they have to lie in it. Still, I’d expect Rogers to leave this winter.

Another ill-fated Trade Deadline acquisition was Trevor Rosenthal, who never threw a pitch for the Brewers and is now a free agent. Will the Brewers sign him back? Maybe. They might try to just so they don’t look as stupid for acquiring him in the first place. They do like Rosenthal and when healthy he can be a weapon, but he just hasn’t been healthy in two seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him brought back, but also wouldn’t be surprised if he walked. If he returns and pitches well, maybe that trade won’t look as dumb in hindsight.

Pedro Severino, Jonathan Davis, and Josh Lindblom all finished the season in Triple-A Nashville. Lindblom was there all year in a veteran leadership role, while Severino and Davis were outrighted off the 40 man and both elected free agency. Davis was out of a job as soon as he got hurt and Garrett Mitchell was called up. With other outfield prospects ready, Davis is going to look elsewhere for an opportunity. The same goes for Severino, who never got a real chance in Milwaukee after his positive PED test.

Brewers Club Option Decisions (2)

Kolten Wong, Brad Boxberger

What are the Brewers to do with Kolten Wong? He struggled both offensively and defensively in the first half of the year, but improved during the second half. He ended with a respectable slash line of .251/.339/.430 with a career-high 15 homers and a career-high 116 wRC+.

That’s really not a bad season at all, in fact it’s a pretty good season. You would think that would be an obvious decision to exercise his club option, right? Not necessarily.

Wong’s club option carries a $10MM salary for 2023, with a buyout of $2MM if the Brewers decline it. So, it’s essentially an $8MM decision for Milwaukee. Do they want to pay Wong, who just turned 32 years old, for another season at a reasonable, but still somewhat high salary? Or will they let him walk, pay the buyout, and install Brice Turang, who is just 22 years old, at second base and would make just $700k next season?

The Brewers would save $7.3MM by switching from Wong to Turang at second. Turang’s a shortstop by trade, but with Willy Adames in the fold, second base is his best path to big league playing time. He spent all of the 2022 season in Triple-A Nashville and posted a very inspiring .286/.360/.412 slash line with 24 doubles, 13 homers, and 34 stolen bases.

With the presence of Turang, I would be mildly surprised to see the Brewers pick up Wong’s option for 2023.

The other option decision they have is Brad Boxberger. He has a $3MM club option for 2023 with a $750,000 buyout if they decline. Boxberger was solid once again in 2022, finishing the year with a 2.95 ERA in 64 innings. His numbers were similar to his successful 2021 campaign. Can he keep it up for a third consecutive year in Milwaukee?

Relievers are volatile year-to-year, but if the Brewers think he can maintain some success, his $3MM is not unreasonable. A slight concern was his average fastball velocity dipping from 93.5 MPH in 2021 to 92.8 MPH in 2022. Boxberger will turn 35 next year and velocity dips for relievers into their mid-thirties are causes for concern when it comes to their performance.

Brewers Arbitration-Eligibles (18)

Hunter Renfroe, Brent Suter, Luis Perdomo, Brandon Woodruff, Matt Bush, Willy Adames, Trevor Gott, Corbin Burnes, Eric Lauer, Jandel Gustave, Adrian Houser, Rowdy Tellez, Luis Urías, Hoby Milner, Devin Williams, Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura

The Brewers have one of the largest arbitration classes in MLB this offseason with a staggering 18 players eligible. That’s nearly 70% of the active roster. Several key players are among this group and are due big raises.

We’ve already taken an in-depth look at the salary projections for these players.

The players that are due the biggest raises are, of course, the stars. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Hunter Renfroe, and Willy Adames are slated to earn the biggest salaries of this group with substantial increases over their 2022 salaries.

In total, if the projections are accurate and the Brewers tender all of these players contracts, they will earn a combined total of over $30MM in raises. That will eat up a large chunk of the payroll space the Brewers added from the parting free agents and whatever budget they may have for free agents.

However, the Brewers aren’t likely to tender all 18 of these players. But yet, there aren’t too many obvious cut candidates that would provide some savings. There’s a few fringe roster options like Luis Perdomo and Jandel Gustave that could be non-tendered but the payroll savings will be minimal. Most of this group are key players to the Brewers current and future plans.

Could Keston Hiura be non-tendered? That would certainly be a surprise given his previous draft and prospect status. His struggles are notable, but it would seem unlikely the Brewers would simply non-tender him for nothing in return instead of at least attempting to trade him or see if he figures it out in 2023.

Other non-tender candidates you have to squint to see. Trevor Gott maybe? Adrian Houser struggled a bit in 2022 but still holds enough value and is cheap enough they wouldn’t have to non-tender him. Maybe Brent Suter could be a candidate?

There’s not much fat to trim here, despite this being a bulky arbitration class. Renfroe, Suter, Caratini, and Perdomo will all be entering their final years of arbitration and will be free agents following the 2023 season.

Brewers Rule 5 Eligible Prospects

Brice Turang, Cam Robinson, Abner Uribe, Victor Castaneda, Carlos Rodriguez (OF), Felix Valerio, Cam Devanney, Eduardo Garcia, Joe Gray Jr

There are a number of other Brewers minor leaguers that are Rule 5 eligible this winter, but these are the notable names.

Brice Turang is a guaranteed lock to be added to the 40 man roster this winter and protected from the Rule 5 Draft. He seemed ready for his big league debut late in 2022 and will surely be relied upon in 2023, no matter what happens with Kolten Wong’s option decision.

There are a couple of other prospects who have strong cases to be added to the 40 man roster this winter. Cam Robinson and Abner Uribe are flamethrowing reliever prospects and those are the types that get plucked often in the Rule 5 Draft. Robinson reached Triple-A by the end of the year and could be called upon early in 2023. Uribe is a bit more raw as a pitcher but can throw 103 MPH.

Uribe is in the Arizona Fall League again this year after missing most of the 2022 season with a torn meniscus. He’s kept the walks down, which is key for him, and has been showing improved command. He may need to be protected.

Victor Castaneda is another option for protection. He made it up to Triple-A this year and has been a solid starting pitcher to this point in the minors. Castaneda could be important rotation depth going forward for Milwaukee although he likely wouldn’t be much more than a back-end rotation option. This is Castaneda’s second year being Rule 5 eligible but he’s much closer to the big leagues now and more likely to be plucked if left unprotected.

The only other name on this list that could seriously merit protecting and could be selected would be Cam Devanney. He had a very good season in Double-A and earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A. He could be a utility guy at the big league level and maybe more if he gets an opportunity. He was 2nd in the Brewers farm system in homers this year with 23, behind only Jon Singleton. Devanney hit a solid .264 with a .832 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A.

Outfielder Carlos Rodriguez only played in High-A this year and missed most of the season with an injury after starting out well. He most likely won’t be selected, even if he does, the Brewers are pretty well set in the outfield. Felix Valerio had a great 2021 season, but struggled with a full year in Double-A in 2022 and isn’t likely to get selected. Joe Gray Jr had a breakout first half of 2021, but he’s struggled mightily in High-A and had a poor 2022, making his protection unnecessary and a selection unlikely.

Eduardo Garcia is a highly rated shortstop prospect, but since he just reached High-A late in 2022, no team is likely to be willing to take the risk of trying to make him play all of 2023 in the big leagues.

Brewers Positions of Need

1. Added Pitching Depth

We’ve gone in-depth on the Crew’s needs this offseason, but it’s important to go over them again and look at the needs in context of this whole offseason preview and give some potential options.

David Stearns has stated that the Brewers lack of pitching depth was an issue in 2022 (which it was) and that that will be addressed this offseason, most likely with some external additions. So look for a couple of free agent signings for either bullpen or rotation depth. While Milwaukee isn’t going to be looking at the top of the market for pitching, they will be checking around for someone that can help them and is in their price range.

Someone like Chad Kuhl could be an option for improving the rotation in Milwaukee. He won’t cost too much, had a good season in 2022, and might even present an improvement over someone like Adrian Houser. Chris Flexen of the Mariners might be an option on the trade market as back end rotation depth.

The bullpen could have any number of options on the free agent market that they could sign for cheap, potentially even on minor league contracts.

2. Third Base

Luis Urias regressed a little at third base in 2022 and with Jace Peterson hitting free agency, the Brewers could stand to upgrade that position. Urias could fill the super-utility role that Peterson held if Milwaukee acquired a new starting option at third base.

However, the free agent market this winter isn’t exactly flush with starting third base options. The best player that could potentially be worthy of being a starter and might be in the Crew’s price range is Brandon Drury. Nolan Arenado could opt out and become a free agent, but even if he did, the Brewers couldn’t afford him.

Other than Drury, there aren’t really any free agents that would be an improvement over Urias. They would then have to look to the trade market and maybe target someone like Arizona’s Josh Rojas or Colorado’s Ryan McMahon. If they really wanted to go all out, trading for Boston’s Rafael Devers would represent a move dedicated to building a World Series roster right now.

3. Catcher

The Brewers got extremely poor offensive production from their catchers in 2022. Victor Caratini hit .199 on the year, while Omar Narvaez hit .206. Yikes.

They need to get better. Catching prospect Mario Feliciano is ready for a role in 2023 and he’ll likely take one spot. Narvaez is a free agent, so they could simply roll with a Feliciano/Caratini duo in 2023. Although since Caratini struggled so much in the second half, it isn’t out of the question for them to non-tender Caratini and look elsewhere for another catcher.

The free agent market has players such as Tucker Barnhart and Christian Vasquez available, but the cream of the crop this year is Willson Contreras. Would Contreras sign with Milwaukee? He’d cost a lot but he’d be a major improvement. I’m sure Brewers fans would warm up to him if he puts on a Milwaukee uniform.

But if the Brewers do look to the free agent market for catching upgrades, there are a couple of good options out there.

Brewers 2023 Payroll Outlook

The budget will be tight.

You may be tired of hearing it, you may not want to hear it, you may think it’s a lie and that Mark Attanasio has millions of dollars he can spend but simply won’t because he’s cheap, but it doesn’t matter. The plain truth is, the Brewers payroll budget will be tight.

Christian Yelich will be earning another $26MM in 2023, which takes up a good chunk of the budget. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Hunter Renfroe are all projected to earn over $11MM each, which takes the payroll to nearly $60MM just for those four players combined.

With the large arbitration class earning around $30+MM in raises, that quickly eats up the payroll space made available by the departures of Lorenzo Cain ($18MM), Andrew McCutchen ($8.5MM), and Omar Narvaez ($5MM). Because of that, the payroll doesn’t even decrease much from the departures and they don’t get extra money available to improve the roster externally.

Currently, Fangraphs has the Brewers projected for a $118MM payroll in 2023. That number does not include the option decisions on Wong and Boxberger and only includes the 34 players currently on the 40 man, prior to any offseason moves.

For reference, the Brewers carried a $131MM payroll in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was the highest payroll in franchise history.

They are looking once again at a record payroll in 2023. After all, they’re just $14MM away from setting a new record and they haven’t even made any moves yet. Pick up Wong’s option? All of a sudden that payroll is at $128MM. Pick up Boxberger’s too? You’re already matching your record $131MM payroll all without a single free agent signed.

Are there contract extensions to be had? There should be. That would also raise the payroll significantly.

Frankly, the question isn’t going to be whether they set a record payroll in 2023, it’s by how much.

The Brewers could make some modest free agent pickups and their payroll would probably jump to the $140-150MM range. That’s if they keep most of the rest of the team. There could very well be more trades from the group of players making a lot of money.

Don’t worry too much, I wouldn’t anticipate a trade of any of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff or Willy Adames. But with outfielders aplenty, could the Brewers trade the final year of control over Hunter Renfroe to make an addition at an area of need while clearing his projected $11+MM salary? They would have a solid replacement ready in any of their outfield prospects (most likely Joey Wiemer for RF) at league minimum salary and could address a different roster need with the return.

That would be a tough blow however since Renfroe had a fantastic season in 2022 and proved to be an important and valuable addition to the club. He had the highest qualified batting average on the team and slugged 29 homers. Trade that guy? Yeah, it could potentially happen.

There is very little wiggle room with the Brewers 2023 payroll. That could lead to more tough decisions with the roster with guys like Renfroe or Wong, similar to the tough decision they made about Josh Hader mid-season.

This payroll is going to have to be at a minimum of $130MM but in order for the team to improve, they’ll have to push to at least $140MM and may likely have to go to $150MM or higher. Will Mark Attanasio actually push it to $150MM and above? We’ll find out (but don’t hold your breath).

Now that the offseason is here, it’s time to get to work reshaping this roster and building hopefully a World Series winning Brewers roster in 2023.