3 Brewers who could exceed expectations in 2025, 2 who could regress

We are inching closer and closer to the start of the MLB season. Spring Training games are happening daily, and the stars of the league are starting to get their reps ahead of Opening Day. As the reigning champions of the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers will have a target on them, as the other teams in the division look to knock off the team that has dominated since 2018.

If Milwaukee is going to three-peat the division and/or make another playoff appearance, they will rely on stars like Christian Yelich, Freddy Peralta, and William Contreras to lead them. They will also look to see if a couple guys will play above expectations and hope to avoid guys regressing. Here are the prime candidates for guys who may fit one of those two roles.

Exceed Expectations: Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick feels incredibly primed to have a huge season. He came into camp a bit heavier, but in a good way, putting on 25 pounds of muscle. Part of that, in his words, was to better hold up to the marathon 162 game season. Another reason may have been for moments like this:

If Frelick can add some extra pop to his game, and maybe add some gap power for doubles, the Brewers offense will be in fantastic shape. Frelick has taken some time to fully acclimate himself to every level he has played at, making him prime for a big season this year.

Regress: Jackson Chourio

This is by no means a knock on Jackson Chourio. He is undoubtedly the future of the Brewers franchise and has every tool to potentially be a MVP candidate in the very near future. In fact, I would even expect Chourio to have a very solid 2025 season given that he is off to a great start in Spring Training:

That all said, sometimes we need to step back and realize he is just about to turn 21 in the upcoming days. It would not be any sort of shock if he took SOME sort of step backwards this season. That is not to say it would be a massive step back, but with lofty expectations being thrown around, it is almost impossible to live up to all of those expectations. If anyone can do it though, it would be Jackson Chourio.

Exceed Expectations: Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz was one of the happier surprises from last season. When Baltimore acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers, a lot of fans looked at DL Hall as the big return in the trade. Which makes sense, since Burnes was a Cy Young Award winning pitcher, fans are naturally going to gravitate towards the pitcher the team gets in return.

In his first full MLB season last year, Ortiz hit for a .239 average, with a .329 on base percentage, and hit 11 home runs. With a full season under his belt, expect Ortiz to improve on these numbers offensively, as well as take the next steps defensively whether he is staying at 3rd base, or in his natural position of shortstop.

Regress: Brandon Woodruff

Much like Jackson Chourio, this comes more from sky high expectations that may not be fair given the circumstances. Woodruff missed all of 2024, after sustaining a shoulder injury that held him out for the 2023 postseason. In case you need a reminder on just how good Brandon Woodruff is, since it has been some time since we last saw him pitch, check out this stat:

Until the Brewers added Jose Quintana, the team had caught some flack from fans and analysts for not adding to the roster drastically. Those defending the team pointed to Woodruff's eventual return as a stand-in for the "big" signing or trade that never came.

With this high of expectations, fans may not have the necessary patience for the return of a guy who hasn't thrown in MLB game since September of 2023. While I think Woodruff will still be very good, and a welcome addition back to this roster, it is going to be tough to immediately go back to the 2x All Star pitcher that he was before the injury.

Exceed Expectations: Rhys Hoskins

Last season, the Brewers brought in Rhys Hoskins, and fans were fired up. He swings a big bat and had some massive moments in the postseason with the Phillies. Fans were a bit disappointed with Hoskins in 2024, as he had his worst season as a pro from a batting average standpoint while hitting a measily .214, although he did belt 26 dingers.

Hoskins feels due for a big bounce back season. He is another year removed from the knee injury that kept him out of the 2023 season, but perhaps most importantly, he is absolutely crushing the ball this spring. In 15 plate appearances, he has 10 hits including three home runs. Hoskins is a tough dude that Brewers fans want to root for, having endeared himself to fans for being a scrappy guy. He can continue to do so with a big 2025 campaign.

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