3 Brewers who have defied their preseason projections

Any way you slice it, the Milwaukee Brewers have defied expectations this year. The combination of losing Willy Adames to free agency and trading Devin Williams to the New York Yankees in the offseason had experts around the league projecting the Brewers to be a bubble playoff team at best. However, on the night of August 23, Milwaukee remains atop the MLB standings, as the only team with at least 80 wins.

It hasn't come without their fair share of struggles; in mid-May it appeared as if the projection models were right and the Brewers' NL Central reign was coming to an end. A majority of Milwaukee's hitters were underperforming and the pitching staff, while holding their own, was decimated with injuries. But as the penultimate month of the regular season rapidly comes to a close, the story couldn't be more different.

The Brewers are in the midst of a historic run, one that has included multiple 11 game winning streaks, one of which extended to 14 and broke the franchise record for most consecutive wins. Now, if you look at the preseason projection systems they seemingly tell the same old story of Brewers underestimation. In fact, many Brewers have far outdone their preseason projections, which is a large reason for the team remaining successful even after losing someone like Adames, who played an integral role in Milwaukee's offense during the previous four seasons. While many names could have been included on this list, here are three Brewers position players who's defiance of their preseason projections has been especially impressive.

1. Brice Turang

Turang's 2024 quantum leap is well documented to this point, but less common is the rhetoric that the Brewers' second baseman has taken a more impressive step forward this season than he did a season ago. The most impressive part of Turang's 2025 season has been the emergence of power in his offensive profile. Practically no one expected Turang to slug double-digit home runs, as evidenced by the projections laid out below, but with eight in the month of August alone, it's clear that Turang cares not about people's preseason expectations.

The following chart details Turang's preseason ZiPS projections and compares them to his stats through Friday night's series opener with the San Francisco Giants. ZiPS, which stands for Zymborski Projection System, is a projection system developed by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. Szymborski developed the model while working for Baseball Think Factory, and it has become one of the most trusted and accurate projection systems in baseball.

ZiPS predicted that Turang would take a baby step forward in 2025. His 89 wRC+ in 2024 and his projected wRC+ of 90 for the 2025 season tell a story of a player whose third year in MLB led to more comfortability and therefore a slight improvement, but what Turang has done instead was almost unfathomable prior to the season beginning. He's outperforming his projected slugging percentage by nearly 70 points, he's already surpassed his projected fWAR for the entire season, and he has more than 50% more home runs than ZiPS expected him to have in 2025.

Simply put, Turang's development in the power department has been nothing short of incredible. Some minor changes to his swing and stance, as well as a slight change to his approach at the plate, have done wonders for the Brewers' third-year second baseman. What's more impressive is that, despite developing unexpected levels of power, Turang hasn't sacrificed anything in the on-base or batting average department. He's maintaining career best marks in each of the two categories in what has been an offensive display that has been a welcomed surprise for the Milwaukee Brewers.

2. Sal Frelick

Frelick's first full season of major league baseball in 2024 left much to be desired. Despite the former 15th overall pick displaying impressive plate discipline and a knack for making contact with just about any pitch, it was hard to see Frelick's unique offensive profile taking him anywhere other than "league-average world." ZiPS 2025 projections for Frelick confirmed that belief, with the model projecting the Brewers' 2021 first-round pick to post a 102 wRC+ during the 2025 season, which would put Frelick at just 2% above the league-average hitter.

However, Frelick has been far better than a league-average bat this season. Not only has he made big strides in the power department, like his teammate Turang, but he's doing the things that he does well even better. Check out how his current numbers compare to his preseason projections.

Just like Turang, Frelick is sweeping the board in terms of outperforming his preseason projections. Despite his underlying power metrics remaining below average, Frelick has found a way to maintain a slugging percentage above .400 over the last five months, relying mostly on pull-side power for home runs and using his speed to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. With a whiff rate and strikeout rate that each rank in the 92 percentile or higher, Frelick's floor is higher than most MLB hitters, but this year he's been far more focused on his ceiling than his floor. His performance suggests that Frelick's ceiling is higher than most in the industry initially thought.

3. Isaac Collins

Perhaps the most shocking development of the Brewers' entire 2025 season, 28-year-old rookie Isaac Collins is turning heads with his stellar performance. After playing just 11 games in MLB a season ago, Collins' preseason projections were heavily influenced by his minor league career, which was a bag of mixed results. However, Collins has quickly silenced any concerns about his profile by turning in what has been a Rookie of the Year-worthy season.

In nearly every way, including his surprising defensive acumen, Collins has surpassed his preseason projections, which surprisingly predicted that he would play 115 games this year. Collins, who wasn't initially part of the Brewers’ outfield plans, played in his 105th game of the season on Friday night, meaning his ZiPS projections are still relevant when comparing them to his actual 2025 stats. Let's take a look at how they compare to each other.

Interestingly enough, ZiPS was bullish on Collins' power output this season, projecting the Brewers' rookie to slug 10 home runs. While Collins hasn't yet reached that mark, he still has plenty of opportunities to match his preseason projection. Additionally, while Collins may not have the home run output that ZiPS projected, his actual slugging percentage is more than 50 points above the projection, which is a factor of the 15 doubles and three triples that he's collected this season. Therefore, while the longball count may not be what ZiPS predicted, Collins is still having a major impact on games with his proclivity for extra-base hits.

As previously noted, there are a number of Brewers who could have appeared on this list; Christian Yelich is hitting far more homers than ZiPS projected, Jackson Chourio is outdoing his sophomore year expectations, and Caleb Durbin, who has cooled off as of late, still holds a higher wRC+ than his preseason projection. And that's not even mentioning the pitchers who have outperformed their expectations. Put it all together and you get a team that clearly defied what most experts anticipated them doing this season.