3 reasons Brewers fans should be encouraged by NLDS matchup with Padres, 2 reasons to be nervous

After sweeping the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series, the San Diego Padres have officially punched their ticket to the NLDS, where a matchup with the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers awaits them. It will be the Brewers and Padres' first-ever meeting in the postseason, and there are no two hotter teams in baseball right now. The Brewers and Padres each posted a 18-6 record during the regular season portion of their September schedule, and San Diego added two more convincing wins over the Cubs this week.

While Brewers fans are relieved not to have to deal with the added stress that comes with facing the Cubs in the postseason, the Padres' recent performance undoubtedly has some fans wishing for a matchup with Craig Counsell's squad. That said, for as well as the Padres are playing right now, there are still certainly reasons for Brewers fans to be encouraged by the specific matchup. Let's take a closer look at three of the Padres' weaknesses and how they might come into play in the NLDS.

3 reasons Brewers fans should be encouraged by their NLDS matchup with the Padres

1. Question marks remain in San Diego's starting rotation

Heading into the postseason, the Padres' rotation was certainly their biggest weakness. With an elite bullpen and a surging offense, fans were unsure what San Diego would get from their starting staff in October. However, the duo of Michael King and Nick Pivetta, the latter of whom had a limited regular season workload this year due to an early-season elbow injury, dominated the Cubs in the Wild Card series, allowing just one earned run in a combined 10.1 innings. King's seven-inning shutout on Tuesday night did the heavy lifting, but Pivetta certainly impressed on Wednesday night as well.

However, even if King and Pivetta replicate their Wild Card performances in the NLDS -- likely in Games 2 and 3 -- questions remain in regard to the rest of San Diego's starting options. Trade deadline acquisitions Casey Mize, who is currently hurt, and Robbie Ray, who snuck onto the Wild Card roster but didn't pitch, haven't panned out as the Padres hoped they would. Long-time Los Angeles Dodger Walker Buehler also made the Padres' initial playoff roster, and is certainly a candidate to start a game, but his pedestrian 4.63 ERA in 32 starts this year doesn't necessarily scream "postseason starter." Not only will San Diego need King and Pivetta to repeat their incredible Wild Card performances in the NLDS, but they will also need another less obvious postseason starter to step up.

2. Padres' league-average infield defense bodes well for Brewers' offensive approach

The Cubs had an elite defensive unit in 2026, that much was obvious. In addition to Pete Crow-Armstrong's impressive performance in center field, the Cubs' infield of Alex Bregman (who was limited to DH in the Wild Card series due to a freak injury), Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch took away a number of would-be base hits thanks to their impressive range and sure-handedness. The Padres, while their infield unit is fine, by no means have the same elite ability to take away ground-ball base hits, and is therefore a better matchup for the Brewers' offense.

Manny Machado remains a strong defender when it comes to Outs Above Average (OAA), but his Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) total tells a different story. Ty France is a solid defensive first baseman, but the duo of Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth up the middle is below-average in the field. It's an important part of this series because the Brewers rank first in MLB in Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), third in infield hits, and second in bunt hits. In other words, Milwaukee puts a lot of pressure on opposing infield defenses, and the Padres' shaky unit could come back to hurt them in this series.

3. San Diego's offense was far closer to league average for a majority of the season

The Padres' offense is on fire right now. No team posted a higher collective batting average, slugging percentage, or wRC+ than the Padres during the month of September, and only the Brewers scored more runs. Strong final months from Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, France, and Bogaerts led the Padres to these impressive numbers during the month of September, but for a majority of the season, San Diego's offense looked far closer to league average.

From the start of the season to the end of August, San Diego held a collective wRC+ of 98, indicating that their offensive unit was below league average for the first five months of the season. During that stretch, they ranked 20th in home runs and 22nd in runs scored. Their strong final push made their season-long numbers appear far better, but for a majority of the 2026 season, San Diego's offense was not among the best in baseball. That could matter not if the Padres' recent hot streak continues throughout October, but it's important to note this recent performance is the exception, not the norm.

2 reasons Brewers fans should be nervous about their NLDS matchup with the Padres

1. The Padres are the hottest team in baseball (aside from maybe the Brewers)

Whether their recent performance is the exception or not, there's no denying that the Padres are one of the two hottest teams in baseball, with their only threat being the team they will match up against in the NLDS. As previously mentioned, the Brewers and Padres finished first and second, respectively, in runs scored during the final month of the regular season en route to MLB-best 18-6 records. The Padres then stymied a strong Cubs' team with two comfortable wins in the NL Wild Card Series.

For the Brewers, who seemingly run into the hottest team in baseball in the early rounds of the postseason every single year, a matchup with the Padres feels like more bad luck. San Diego surged to the top Wild Card spot in the NL, secured a home postseason series, swept said series, and now carries that momentum into the NLDS. That certainly doesn't feel like a fair draw for the best team in baseball, who just completed a record-breaking 103-win regular season. Yes, the Padres have more flaws on their roster than the Brewers, but sometimes all that matters is how a team is playing when the postseason rolls around, to which the recent performance of each of these two teams would suggest fans are in for a competitive series.

2. San Diego is the only team with a better bullpen than the Brewers

The Brewers are heading into the postseason with their bullpen at its best, which is not often the case following the 162-game season. The combination of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Aaron Ashby at the back end, trade deadline acquisitions JoJo Romero and Antonio Senzatela in the middle innings, and multi-inning options like DL Hall, Chad Patrick, and Shane Drohan has Milwaukee's relief corps among the best in baseball as the playoffs arrive.

However, if there's one bullpen group that is better than the Brewers', it's the Padres' ridiculous assembly of relief weapons. Flame-throwing closer Mason Miller and his elite set-up man Adrian Morejon rightfully garner much of the attention, but other arms like Bradgley Rodriguez, Jason Adam, who just returned from the 60-day IL, and southpaw Yuki Matsui deserve respect as well. Given the strength of San Diego's bullpen and the question marks in their rotation, the pressure will be on the Brewers to build early leads and take advantage of as many scoring opportunities as possible.

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