3 surprises from ZIPS' 2026 Milwaukee Brewers projections

For over two decades, the brilliant Dan Szymborski has been publishing baseball projections, known as ZiPS projections, which is a loose acronym for "Szymborski Projection System," that provide an impressively accurate estimation of how each MLB player and therefore their teams will perform in the following season. Szymborski's model, which he refines year after year, has become one of the most trusted in the baseball world.

When it comes to the Milwaukee Brewers, Szymborski himself acknowledges that his model, which relies on data from the previous three or four seasons -- based on the age of the player in question -- often struggles to estimate the production of the young players on Milwaukee's roster. Whether it be because the model can't accurately capture the breakout of a certain player or it struggles to estimate just how big of a role a newcomer will have in the following year, ZiPS in recent seasons has underestimated the success that the Brewers will have the following year.

Additionally, due to the depth on the Brewers' 40-man roster and the numerous prospects on the verge of making their MLB debut, ZiPS often projects certain players in Milwaukee's organization to have larger roles on the major league roster than most fans expect. As a result, there are often some surprises when Szymborski publishes his Brewers' ZiPS projections on FanGraphs.com every winter. Here are three of the most significant projections from the Brewers' 2026 ZiPS projections.

1. Luis Lara having a big role with the 2026 Brewers

The Brewers' outfield depth possesses some interesting decisions for Matt Arnold and the front office this winter, and Pat Murphy and his coaching staff should it remain as is by the time the 2026 season arrives. With Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio seemingly locked into everyday starting roles on the outfield grass, the question is: who will join them in the starting lineup?

Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Brandon Lockridge, and Akil Baddoo all figure to compete for that third spot, but ZiPS expects another name to beat out all of them when it comes to plate appearances in 2026: Luis Lara. Currently MLB Pipeline's No. 12-ranked Brewers prospect, Lara trails only 2024 first-round pick Braylon Payne when it comes to the highest-ranked outfield prospects in the organization. That said, Lara is much farther along in his development; he played 136 games in Double-A for the Biloxi Shuckers last season.

ZiPS expects Lara to collect 600 plate appearances in 2026 -- more than Andrew Vaughn, Sal Frelick, and Christian Yelich. In fact, the projection system expects Lara to have the fourth most plate appearances of any Brewer in 2026. Lara did finish the 2025 season on a high note, with a .921 OPS in the month of September to prove it, but 600 plate appearances for the big-league club in 2026 is aggressive, especially considering the 21-year-old has never had a Triple-A at-bat and doesn't yet find himself on the Brewers' 40-man roster.

Barring a series of unfortunate injuries, it's difficult to see Lara collecting that many plate appearances in 2026, but that's not to say he won't be a big part of the Brewers' organization in 2027 and beyond. With an elite glove, speed on the basepaths, and a hit tool that fits Milwaukee's style of play, expect Lara to take over Perkins' role as the Brewers' fourth outfielder in the near future, but probably not next season.

2. Jesús Made and Cooper Pratt's MLB debuts

Lara's projected debut isn't the only bold Brewers prospect prediction ZiPS is making for the 2026 season. Projecting each of them to collect more than 500 big-league plate appearances, ZiPS is expecting both Jesús Made and Cooper Pratt to make their MLB debuts in 2026 (the model also notably expects the Brewers' No. 2-ranked prospect Luis Peña to debut in 2026, but he's not expected to play as big of a role).

With Pratt spending the entire 2025 campaign in Double-A and Made joining him there for the final few weeks of the season, it's highly unlikely that either is major-league ready enough to collect 500 plate appearances in 2026. More than likely, the Brewers will wait until 2027 to recall one or both of their talented shortstop prospects, not wanting to rush their development while understanding just how important they are to the organization's future.

That said, if each of them finds success out of the gates in 2026, with Pratt likely in Triple-A and Made in Double-A, and incumbent shortstop Joey Ortiz continues to struggle at the plate, which ZiPS does expect, it's not completely far-fetched to believe that the better of the two will join the major league club before the end of the 2026 season.

However, if such a reality does occur, it likely won't be before the Brewers give Ortiz a true chance to prove that he is a serviceable big-league hitter, which, paired with his excellent glove, is really all he needs to maintain his everyday role in 2026. Therefore, while Made and Pratt making their major league debuts in 2026 isn't completely out of the question, the likelihood of both of them collecting more than 500 MLB plate appearances next year is very low.

3. An unexpected pitching prospect having a major impact on the Brewers' rotation

Entering the 2026 season, the Brewers have plenty of young starting pitchers whose roles have yet to be defined. That said, regardless of whether they pitch as starters or relievers, names like Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Tobias Myers, and Robert Gasser are all expected to be important pieces of the pitching puzzle in 2026.

Less expected to have an impact on the major league roster are names like KC Hunt, Tate Kuehner, and Bret Wichrowski, of which only Kuehner advanced past Double-A last year. However, ZiPS has each of them making 21 starts for the big-league club in 2026, though it should be noted that the projection model does estimate more than 162 starts for starting pitchers on any given roster.

Even still, the fact that each of Hunt, Kuehner, and Wichrowski is projected for more than 20 starts seems to suggest that at least one of them will at least approach that mark in 2026, which would come as a shock to most Brewers fans. Though maybe it shouldn't, seeing as no one expected Chad Patrick to make 23 starts in 2025 or Tobias Myers to make 25 starts the season prior.

Could one of Kuehner, Wichrowski, or Hunt follow in Patrick and Myers' footsteps as the Brewers' next breakout pitcher? It's possible, but my money is on Henderson or Gasser to fill that role in 2026.