A coin flip? A dice roll? Insider shares his thoughts on chances of a Peralta trade

When it comes to the rumors surrounding the Milwaukee Brewers and their decision of whether or not to trade their ace, Freddy Peralta, before the 2026 season arrives, the front office has been relatively quiet since the offseason began. Apart from a report claiming the Brewers would listen to offers for Peralta -- a rather unsurprising development as Matt Arnold has often documented his team's openness to at least listen to offers for any of his team's players -- and speculation that Brandon Woodruff's acceptance of the qualifying offer would lead to a Peralta trade, all we've heard from Milwaukee's front office is that both they and management are excited about the 2026 rotation.

The front office's silence is neither surprising nor unintentional; it's strategic. Committing one way or the other not only rids Arnold and his team of negotiating leverage which they hold from not needing to trade Peralta this offseason, but it also puts the front office in a box as not following through on their initial decision of whether or not to trade their ace could sour the team's relationship with the long-time fan favorite.

As things currently stand, the Brewers' starting staff looks incredibly strong heading into the 2026 season, during which Milwaukee will compete for their fourth-straight NL Central title. However, anchoring that strong starting staff are two players to whom the Brewers are committing more than $30 million in 2026. With a payroll already approaching some of the highest in franchise history, speculation has arisen in regard to the team moving Peralta in order to free up payroll space, so they can improve their roster elsewhere.

The result of both the front office's strategic silence and potential concerns over payroll is a prediction from ESPN's MLB insider, Jeff Passan, that reflects the baseball world's uncertainty over whether or not Milwaukee will truly move on from their ace this winter.

ESPN's MLB insider Jeff Passan estimates a 25% chance that the Brewers trade Peralta this offseason

When the offseason began, assigning the likelihood of a Peralta trade a 25% chance was seemingly right in line with what Brewers fans were expecting during the winter. 25% essentially means the team is planning on holding on to Peralta unless they are met with a trade package they simply can't refuse.

Given the fact that Milwaukee's front office's stance on a potential Peralta blockbuster hasn't changed since the season ended more than a month ago, the estimation that ESPN's MLB insider, Jeff Passan, offered in his latest column is spot on. Passan and his colleague, Kiley McDaniel, ranked the top 25 trade candidates on the market this winter and offered estimations of the likelihood of each of them actually being traded this offseason. Their article, which is free to read over at ESPN.com and linked below, also provides logical destinations for each of the 25 trade candidates.

2025-26 MLB offseason: Ranking players who could be traded

Peralta, who ranked third on Passan and McDaniel's list behind only Tarik Skubal and Ketel Marte, was given a 25% chance of being traded this offseason with a long list of potential destinations including the New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, and Arizona Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, the Brewers were listed as a potential destination just once, despite the trade market being their bread and butter, as a landing spot for Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm.

More than a roll of a dice, less than a coin flip, that's the likelihood that MLB insider Jeff Passan is giving a Freddy Peralta trade this offseason. For a Brewers fanbase already excited about the prospect of watching a starting rotation that includes Peralta, Woodruff, Quinn Priester, and Jacob Misiorowski, those are odds to be happy about.