Brewers' 2026 arbitration salary projections formally seal departing slugger's fate

Nearly every offseason, calls come for the Milwaukee Brewers to deepen their pockets and sign a big-name free agent, generally from those unfamiliar with the Brewers’ way of doing business. The Brewers, a team that exists in the smallest TV market in all of baseball -- a major determinant of the size of a team's payroll -- do far better when they rely on young players who have yet to become eligible for arbitration, or cast-offs from other teams who have low salaries and high potential. As such, their roster building strategy focuses far more on acquiring players who will be productive during the early years of their careers, rather than signing veterans on their first or second free agent contract.

However, two offseasons ago, Milwaukee strayed from their usual strategy and brought in slugger Rhys Hoskins on a two-year, $34 million deal. For Hoskins, who was coming off of an ACL injury that forced him to miss the entire 2023 season, the contract, which included a player option after the 2024 season and a mutual option after the 2025 season, was a perfect way to prove that he was deserving of the big contracts that were being doled out to players of his similar caliber before he got hurt.

Despite showing glimpses of his former self, the one who was a fixture in the heart of the Philadelphia Phillies' lineup for years, Hoskins' time in Milwaukee didn't go exactly as he hoped it would. A negative WAR (Wins Above Replacement) season in 2024 and a 2025 season heavily impacted by a thumb injury that he sustained in early July leave Hoskins in a place of uncertainty as the offseason begins.

While Hoskins would certainly agree to the $18 million mutual option for the 2026 season included in his contract, which would be a $1 million raise from his 2025 salary, the Brewers will certainly reject their half of the option. But the decision isn't due just to Hoskins' underperformance during his time in a Brewers uniform; it's also a reflection of the arbitration salary projections that many MLB experts have released over the past few weeks.

Milwaukee Brewers' 2026 arbitration salary projections all but seal Rhys Hoskins' fate

MLB Trade Rumors, widely regarded as one of the most accurate sites for arbitration salary projections, lists seven Milwaukee Brewers players as arbitration-eligible for the 2026 season. Catcher William Contreras has the heftiest projection at $11.1 million, which should come into play after the Brewers reject the $12.0 million club option that they included in the contract Contreras signed a season ago.

Following Contreras, Andrew Vaughn has the second-highest arbitration salary projection at $7.8 million. Given his impressive performance since joining the Brewers' major league squad in early July, which carried over into the postseason, it's all but certain that Matt Arnold and company will gladly hand Vaughn his near $8 million salary and lock him in as the team's 2026 Opening Day first baseman.

Contrast that $7.8 million salary with the $18 million that the Brewers could pay to keep Hoskins around for one more season, and the decision to choose Vaughn becomes even clearer. Not only did Vaughn outperform Hoskins and prevent the latter from earning a spot on the postseason roster, but the Brewers can also save roughly $10 million by going with Vaughn in 2026.

Hoskins is sure to land on his feet. His track record in Philadelphia, paired with the two months that he had at the beginning of the 2025 season, during which he carried a struggling Brewers offense, are more than enough to earn him another contract with a different organization. Whether or not that is a multi-year contract or a one-year "prove-it" deal remains to be seen, but for someone like Hoskins, who bet on himself by agreeing to a short-term deal with Milwaukee, the latter seems more likely.