Brewers’ bounce-back victory exposed Cubs’ biggest postseason weakness

When the final line closed on Chicago Cubs' starter Matthew Boyd last night, the Tuesday evening clash of NL Central rivals was tied 3-3. Boyd was relieved by right-hander Daniel Palencia in the sixth inning, who quickly allowed each of his inherited runners to score due to a balk and a double off the bat of Andrew Vaughn. The next batter after Vaughn, Christian Yelich, crushed a two-run homer that gave the Brewers a 5-3 lead.

Then, two innings later, with the Brewers holding a three-run lead and ready to turn to Trevor Megill for the final inning, Cubs' reliever Tyler Ferguson surrendered a two-run homer to Joey Ortiz that gave Milwaukee a five-run lead and allowed them to rest their All-Star closer for another day.

Both home runs were significant -- Yelich's gave the Brewers the lead and Ortiz's was the dagger that ultimately solidified the win. However, the two longballs against the Cubs' bullpen last night didn't just play a key role in the Brewers' necessary bounce-back victory, they also exposed Chicago's biggest weakness, and their most significant cause for concern heading into the postseason. On what is otherwise a very strong Cubs' roster, more complete than the one they constructed last year, Chicago's bullpen has significant trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Cubs' bullpen's home run troubles are the team's biggest weakness heading into the final stretch

It's not just the eye test or recency bias that support this notion that the Cubs' bullpen has a home run problem; the numbers back it up as well. In 2026, Chicago's relief corps has the highest home run per nine innings rate (1.42), the highest home run to fly ball ratio (14.3%), the highest hard-hit rate (40.9%), and trails the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies' bullpens by just 0.2 mph for the highest opponent average exit velocity.

It's a problem that takes on even more significance during the postseason. As is frequently talked about, especially in the context of the Brewers' unorthodox offense, home runs matter more in October than they do throughout the regular season, with the logic being that it's more difficult to string together base hits against elite pitching staffs in the postseason than it is to take advantage of one or two mistakes and send them over the fence. A bullpen that's as susceptible to the longball as the Cubs' could end up making all the difference in the playoffs.

That said, more context is certainly warranted for the Brewers' arch-rivals. The Cubs have seen a great deal of bullpen turnover throughout the 2026 season, and it's even possible that their postseason relief group looks far different than the one they are working with on September 1. The Cubs are hoping Edward Cabrera, Justin Steele, and Ben Brown return to their roster before the end of the season, but the likelihood of all three re-joining their pitching staff feels low. Even still, with a number of starting options, arms like Cabrera and David Peterson could join the bullpen in October and reshape the Cubs' bullpen group. That said, both Cabrera and Peterson have struggled with the longball this year, so it's not a guarantee that their addition to the bullpen would solve Chicago's relief corps' home run issues.

The Cubs have a very talented roster, Pat Murphy said as much last night. They have far and away the best defense in MLB and lead the league in most offensive categories as well. The additions of Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline completely reshaped their starting rotation, which was a real cause for concern during the first half of the season. However, on what is otherwise an excellent roster, the Cubs' bullpen and their proclivity for surrendering home runs stand out as a glaring weakness. In October, when home runs take precedence that weakness could certainly come back to bite the North Siders.

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