Brewers have new frontrunner in Freddy Peralta sweepstakes after 2025 Winter Meetings

Heading into the Winter Meetings, the chances of a Freddy Peralta trade appeared to be at their lowest of the offseason. By design, Matt Arnold and the Milwaukee Brewers' front office, as well as their ownership group, have been talking up just how fortunate the club feels to have Peralta at the top of their rotation in 2026 and just how important he is to the team's clubhouse culture.

Arnold's sentiment, however, isn't just a ploy to drive up Peralta's asking price, though that is a nice side effect; it's the honest truth. Peralta means more to this team than the pitchers Milwaukee has elected to trade away in years past. For example, when the Brewers moved on from Josh Hader in 2022 or Devin Williams last offseason, they had someone to replace them at the back end of their bullpen. Similarly, when the team moved on from Corbin Burnes ahead of the 2024 season, Peralta was there to assume the ace duties, which he's done so admirably over the last two seasons.

Milwaukee doesn't, however, have someone who can seamlessly replace Peralta as the ace of their big-league staff if the front office elects to trade him away this offseason. Brandon Woodruff certainly held the "ace" distinction at one point in his career and could absolutely return to that level of play in 2026, now another year removed from his major shoulder surgery, but too many question marks exist in his profile to assume that he would replace Peralta as the Brewers' ace. On top of that, the replacement is made less perfect by the fact that Peralta is owed just $8 million in 2026 and Woody holds a salary of $22.025 million. Elsewhere on the starting staff, Milwaukee has options like Quinn Priester and Jacob Misiorowski, who could absolutely turn into ace-caliber pitchers at some point in their careers, but both are currently lacking in experience and don't have the same impact on the clubhouse that Freddy does.

Given the fact that Milwaukee has shown a willingness to keep players integral to the clubhouse culture in their final years of team control, especially when no clear replacement exists, with Willy Adames being the most obvious example, it's far from a guarantee that Peralta is eventually traded this winter. However, as the Winter Meetings transpired with Arnold and company presumably hearing offer after offer, it's likely that the idea of adding several impactful young players to his already talented roster is one that's becoming more and more appealing. Those offers are only going to get better as more free agents sign and teams become desperate to add a pitcher of Peralta's caliber on a salary that won't sabotage their payroll.

One team, who signaled a willingness to compete in 2026 and also tightened their payroll considerably with one big move on the final day of the Winter Meetings, now looks like the likeliest team to meet the high asking price that Milwaukee is demanding for their ace.

Baltimore's Pete Alonso signing makes them the favorite acquire Freedy Peralta this offseason

At first glance, the headline above might seem counterintuitive. Baltimore just handed $155 million to Pete Alonso, a contract that will eat up an average of $31 million of payroll for the next five years, so why would that make them more likely to continue spending money in a potential Peralta deal?

There are several reasons why the Orioles have emerged as the new favorite for a Peralta acquisition this winter. First, Baltimore just signaled to the league that they aren't punting on their young core of position players. Despite missing out on the playoffs during a disappointing 2025 season, the Orioles still have one of the best young cores in baseball, to which they added the slugging Alonso, who figures to completely reshape the middle of their order. Not to mention the fact that Baltimore also brought in Taylor Ward this offseason, who also adds some significant power to a promising Orioles offense. Questions were present regarding whether or not Baltimore would try to compete in what is becoming a stacked AL East, and their signing of Alonso answered all of them emphatically.

So the Orioles want to be competitive in 2026, but they're faced with a difficult reality: they need starting pitching in an expensive free agent market and they just signed one of the most expensive bats available. What Baltimore needs is a cheap, frontline starter who can turn their starting staff into a formidable one, just as Corbin Burnes did when he was traded to the Orioles two years ago. Enter Peralta, who checks all of those boxes.

Additionally, Baltimore's acquisition of Ward and their signing of Alonso have made several of their prospects far more expendable. Players like Coby Mayo and Dylan Beavers, both of whom have already had a taste of the big leagues, could be squeezed out of starting roles, making them more valuable to Baltimore as trade chips.

It remains true that the Brewers will need to be completely blown away by an offer to move on from Peralta this winter. However, with a perfect (and familiar) trade partner emerging in the Baltimore Orioles, who both signaled their willingness to compete and hindered their ability to spend with an aggressive move at the Winter Meetings, the possibility of a Peralta blockbuster increases. How the free agent starting pitching market eventually unfolds could be the determining factor of what offer the Orioles ultimately make.