Brewers must solve their ABS challenge issue before postseason arrives

The Milwaukee Brewers are typically ahead of the curve when it comes to Major League Baseball's rule changes. When MLB added a pitch clock, increased the size of the bases, and implemented the "three disengagement rule" back in 2023, all of which were thought to increase stolen base numbers, the Brewers loaded up their roster with speed and, as a result, have the most stolen bases in baseball over the last three seasons.

To be a perennial contender in a league whose financial structure is actively working against them, the Brewers have to find any competitive advantage possible. Disadvantaged when it comes to signing free agents or providing long-term contract extensions to their star players, the Brewers must find advantages when it comes to things they can control like changes to gameplay.

As a result, many were expecting the savvy Brewers to be very successful with the new ABS challenge system that was implemented at the start of the 2026 season. Having the opportunity to overturn balls and strikes seemed like the type of thing that the Brewers, who have one of the most disciplined offensive units in baseball, would take advantage of. At the very least, it felt almost certain that even if the Brewers weren't highly successful when actually challenging balls and strikes, that they would make said challenges in the right moments. A team excelling in baseball IQ and awareness should seemingly know exactly when to make use of the new challenge system.

However, through the first five months of the season, the opposite has been true. The Brewers have not only struggled to actually overturn balls and strikes, their decisions of when to challenge calls have also been poor. With just three weeks remaining before a pivotal postseason run, Milwaukee is running out of time to fix this concerning and surprising weakness.

Brewers suprising ABS challenge woes could come back to bite them in the playoffs

Entering play on September 9, the Brewers' offense is the 5th-worst in ABS challenge success rate in baseball (44%). On top of that, the offense ranks dead-last in challenge rate (3.0%). So as a team, the Brewers' offense is challenging pitches less than any other team in baseball, and when they do challenge, they get the call wrong more frequently than all but four MLB teams. It's not as if the Brewers aren't getting opportunities to challenge pitches; they hold a 4.2% expected challenge rate. The difference between their expected challenge rate and actual challenge rate (-1.2%) is the largest in all of baseball.

To make matters worse, the Brewers seldom challenge pitches that change the outcome of an at-bat. Milwaukee, as an offense, has won 49 challenges this year, and just 13 of those have eliminated a strikeout, while only six have resulted in a walk.

One issue is that the Brewers' catching corps has also struggled with the ABS challenge system this year, making it more difficult for the offense to challenge calls late in games because they are typically down to just one challenge at that point in the contest. Though the Brewers catchers haven't been quite as bad as the offense, their 54% success rate ranks 8th-worst in MLB.

Brewers fans saw the impact of poor challenges in questionable situations in last night's victory over the Cubs. An unsuccessful challenge from William Contreras behind the plate on the first pitch of an at-bat with one out in the second inning quickly left the Brewers with one ABS challenge remaining. Then, in the sixth frame, Luis Lara challenged a pitch that caught a lot of the zone, despite there being just one out and no one on base. The Brewers could have used a challenge against Michael Conforto in the 9th inning that would have switched a walk to a strikeout and potentially changed the end of the game, but their unsuccessful challenges in questionable early-game situations prevented them from doing so.

It's by no means a perfect science, and some of the success or failure relating to the ABS challenge system is based purely on opportunity. However, there are some things a team can control, like when to even consider challenging and when not to. Locking in their strategy of when they should be challenging and when they shouldn't be unless it's an egregious call should be one of the Brewers' focuses as the postseason approaches. Not having a sound ABS challenge strategy in October is simply too big of a risk.

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