Brewers' NL Central rival could be screwed either way by former MVP's opt-out choice

While much is made about the Milwaukee Brewers' payroll (or lack thereof) and how it could impact their chances of contending, they are far from the only club that has to face some hard financial realities. Contending teams like the Astros, Mariners, Padres, and Braves are likely to be limited in how much they spend this offseason due to their existing payroll commitments. However, one team that is worth watching extra close leading into 2025 is the division rival Cubs.

The Cubs were supposed to be big players in the NL Central after a series of movies including the high profile additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Shota Imanaga. Unfortunately for them (and luckily for the Brewers), Swanson had one of his worst seasons at the plate and Chicago underperformed significantly as a whole in route to a 83-79 record and missing the playoffs entirely.

Complicating matters for the Cubs, they now have to deal with Bellinger's impending opt-out decision where, after a closer look, could screw them either way.

Cody Bellinger's opt-out decision could very well be bad news for the Cubs and good news for the Brewers either way

After a strong 2023 season that still fell short of his former MVP-level production, Bellinger returned to Chicago last offseason once he couldn't find a long-term free agent deal to his liking. The teams that passed on him were somewhat vindicated in not giving him his payday as Bellinger only managed to slash .266/.325/.426 with 18 homers in 2024. Not terrible, but probably a good bit worse than the Cubs were hoping for when they guaranteed him $80 million over three years.

This is where things get even stickier for one of Milwaukee's chief rivals. Assuming that existing public payroll figures are correct, Bellinger could really complicate the Cub's luxury tax situation and make it unlikely that they could make any other meaningful moves this offseason. If Bellinger returns to form, that might work out. However, he has been trending mostly in the wrong direction for years now aside from his 2023 season and there is little reason to believe that he would make the $27.5 million he would get in 2025 worth it at the moment.

On the flip side, the Cubs could be in a similarly brutal spot if Bellinger opts out. For all of his current faults as a player, he still has tremendous upside and has provided real value to the Cubs on both sides of the ball. Losing him would almost certainly mean that Chicago would have to turn to this year's free agent class for help which is lacking in impact bats outside of Juan Soto who the Cubs aren't likely to be able to sign. In short, they either will either have to hope that Beliinger turns back the clock if he opts in OR hope that they can find another bat that can overperform expectations with the emphasis on hope if he doesn't.

For the Brewers, this takes the sting out of what could be a tough offseason. Yes, it is extremely likely that Willy Adames has played his last game with the Brewers and it is feeling more and more like they could trade away Devin Williams as well. However, Milwaukee is clearly not the only NL Central team that could have a tough offseason ahead of them and the Cubs might not even be in control of their own destiny.

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