Brewers not included among Roki Sasaki's finalists as market size wins out yet again

When Roki Sasaki's agent Joel Wolfe said at the Winter Meetings that Sasaki was looking for a soft landing in America with potentially a smaller media market, ears perked up all across Milwaukee. Reports also suggested Sasaki wanted a team with a history of pitching development success and that was music to the Milwaukee Brewers ears.

The Brewers likely attempted to pitch Sasaki on coming to Milwaukee, but there were no public reports of the Brewers getting a face-to-face meeting with Sasaki or being one of the strong contenders for his services. Then this week, as the international signing window for 2025 is about to open, we were seeing reports of teams being told they were out of the running for Sasaki.

The finalists for 23 year old phenom Roki Sasaki are the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and Toronto Blue Jays with all three teams meeting with Sasaki in recent days.

So it's the large market financial behemoth of the Dodgers, the west coast big spending Padres, and the largest city in all of Canada that are the finalists for his services. So much for that small market soft landing and a preference for pitching development.

The Brewers miss out on Roki Sasaki, or does Roki Sasaki miss out on the Brewers?

The Brewers had a lot to offer someone like Sasaki when it comes to a competitive big league club, a penchant for developing pitching talent, and a fantastic infield defense to play behind him. That's a great pitch for just about any free agent in terms of what the Brewers can offer on the field.

There's also the money factor, but money is different with Sasaki. Because he's only 23 years old and doesn't have enough experience in Japan, he's subject not to full free agency like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed for $325 million last winter, but rather subject to international bonus pool money, which is capped at around $5-7 million. The money, no matter where he goes, is largely going to be equal. That means it's a matter of what team best fits Sasaki's preferences and not necessarily about who's giving him the biggest bonus.

Still, the Brewers never appeared close in any pursuit of Sasaki. While he would've been a great addition to this Milwaukee rotation, are the Brewers the ones missing out here or is Sasaki missing out on a great opportunity because he's sleeping on Milwaukee? The pitching development is top notch, led by pitching coach Chris Hook, who just signed a contract extension.

Are the Blue Jays known for their pitching development? No, they aren't. Are the Padres especially good at developing pitching? Not really. Two of the three finalists don't even come close to Milwaukee in that area yet they still made the final round, likely because of their market size. The Dodgers are quite good at player development and they do a lot of winning, so that makes some sense, but there is no soft landing in that LA media market.

Perhaps what could've been an issue is that Sasaki could very well command nearly a team's entire International bonus pool money. Signing Sasaki would require a team to back out of their commitments they've made to prospects in Latin America that they made years ago. That could damage relationships in those countries with those trainers and players and hamper a team's ability to acquire talent from those regions in future years. The Brewers have a machine in Latin America and are one of the best organizations in baseball when it comes to international scouting.

Perhaps the Brewers were simply unwilling to damage those relationships and hurt their pipeline of young players from the international ranks. Those relationships, that international scouting machine they've built is what got Jackson Chourio to Milwaukee, it has three of the Brewers current top 10 prospects, and the potential for more.

If Sasaki wants to go to one of those teams that hasn't been very good at developing pitching but he's in a big market, that's his prerogative. But if that's the case is it the Brewers that are missing out? Or is it Sasaki that was missing out on a great opportunity to join a winning ballclub that knows how to develop him? Time will tell.

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