Brewers shouldn't be impacted by this controversial contract option for first time in two years

With collective bargaining negotiations underway, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding what baseball's financial landscape will look like this winter and beyond. While changes are on the horizon, one thing appears certain for now: the Milwaukee Brewers will not be affected by the qualifying offer this offseason.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year deal that teams can extend to impending free agents, as long as they haven't received it before and they played the entirety of the just-completed season on one team. The value of the deal is determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 paid players in the league, which, according to MLB Trade Rumors, will be $23.1 million this offseason, up from $22.025 million last year.

Extending a qualifying offer comes with a pair of potential benefits. If the player accepts, the team retains an impactful contributor for one more season before free agency. If the player declines and signs elsewhere, the club receives draft-pick compensation. The Brewers have experienced both outcomes in recent years.

They extended a qualifying offer to Willy Adames after the 2024 season, who declined and ultimately netted the organization the 32nd overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, which was used on Brady Ebel. A year later, Milwaukee extended a qualifying offer to Brandon Woodruff, and he accepted. In hindsight, that decision has not worked out particularly well for the Brewers, as an injury has kept him sidelined for much of this season.

Brewers may be regretting their Brandon Woodruff qualifying offer gamble

After missing the entire 2024 season while recovering from shoulder surgery, Woodruff returned to the mound in a limited role in 2025. He didn't make his season debut until July and managed just 12 starts before another injury setback occurred -- a lat strain in September that ended his season prematurely and kept him off the Brewers' postseason roster as well.

During his first season back, Woodruff showed he could still be an effective major league starter, even without the upper-90s velocity that defined much of his early career. By leaning on a revamped pitch mix and veteran savvy, he posted a respectable 3.20 ERA -- a performance that many thought would attract interest on the multi-year free-agent market. Believing he still had plenty to offer, the Brewers rolled the dice and extended him a qualifying offer, which he ultimately accepted.

Unfortunately, the 2026 season has been another frustrating one for Woodruff. He has made just six starts and has not appeared in a game since April 30. While he has been progressing back and recently completed a 67-pitch outing at the Arizona Complex League, it is difficult to justify the value of his salary given the amount of time he has missed.

That said, the story could look very different by October. If Woodruff returns healthy and is able to slot in as Milwaukee's third starter behind Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison in a playoff series, his impact could quickly outweigh the frustrations of the regular season. A strong postseason run would go a long way toward validating the Brewers' decision to extend the qualifying offer. For now, however, the move remains difficult to evaluate positively, and only time will tell whether the gamble ultimately pays off.

Milwaukee almost certainly won't be players in the qualifying offer world in 2026. The only impending free agent currently on the Brewers' 40-man roster, other than Woodruff who can't receive another qualifying offer, is Jake Bauers. While Bauers is playing like an All-Star at the moment, it would be shocking to see the Brewers offer him what is essentially a one-year, $23.1 million contract for 2027. As things currently stand, it appears the Brewers will avoid this contract wrinkle for the first time since 2023 this upcoming offseason.

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