Brewers' southpaw Aaron Ashby restores dominance with change to pitch usage

It's been a tale of three seasons for Milwaukee Brewers' southpaw Aaron Ashby. Milwaukee's Swiss-Army Knife reliever got off to a record-breaking start, during which he collected 10 consecutive wins without a loss, the most in franchise history. Improbably, Ashby accomplished the feat as a relief pitcher -- a position that has a much more difficult time racking up wins than their starting counterparts.

When the calendar flipped to June, Ashby was sporting a stellar 2.00 ERA, and was leading all of MLB in wins. As a result, his name was frequently mentioned in All-Star conversations, despite it being very difficult for a non-closing reliever to make the Midsummer Classic.

However, over the next two months, Ashby's results faded and by the time the All-Star Break arrived, he was sporting a far more pedestrian 3.56 ERA. The southpaw's slump continued through the end of July, with his final appearance in the month being a one-out outing in which he allowed four earned runs to the San Francisco Giants.

Through the months of June and July, Ashby made 25 appearances, covered 24.2 innings and posted a 6.57 ERA, in what was a stark contrast from his early-season dominance. However, since the month of August began, Ashby has once again looked like the dominant reliever that he was through the first two months of the season. Capped off by a huge two-inning outing against the Seattle Mariners on Thursday afternoon, Ashby has now covered 10.1 innings since the start of August, and has yet to allow a run. He has an incredible 42.9% strikeout rate during that span while allowing an opponent batting average of just .135.

The sudden change in results, both at the start of June and the start of August, call into question what Ashby is doing differently. The Brewers and Ashby have constantly tinkered with his pitch usage throughout the season, and their latest formula, which shares some similarities to what Ashby was throwing earlier in the year, appears to be rather effective.

Aaron Ashby is leaning on his secondaries more than ever, and the results speak for themselves

From Opening Day to June 1, Ashby threw his sinker, his main fastball shape, 51.7% of the time. The rest of his arsenal consisted mostly of secondaries, aside from the occasional four-seamer: slider (16.0%), curveball (18.5%), and changeup (10.4%). That combination was excellent, seeing as it led Ashby to All-Star conversations and a dominant 33.8% strikeout rate.

However, in June and July, Ashby got away from his secondaries and leaned more heavily on the sinker. It wasn't necessarily a drastic change, but for a player finding as much success as Ashby was, it was perplexing nevertheless. During June and July, Ashby threw his sinker 54.1% of the time, while starting to favor his curveball (20.5% compared to 12.5% with his slider and 11.9% with his changeup). Regardless of the breakdown of his secondaries, Ashby was certainly throwing too many sinkers during the two-month stretch, and it showed in his decreased effectiveness. His strikeout rate dropped down to 27.1% and his groundball rate went from 56.8% to 45.1%.

Since the calendar flipped to August, Ashby has reverted back to his less fastball-centric approach, leaning on his secondary pitches more than he has throughout the season. In August, Ashby is throwing his sinker just 48.9% of the time, while leaning heavily on his curveball, which he's throwing 30.5% of the time. A 7.9% usage of his slider and 12.1% usage of his changeup round out his arsenal. Since leaning into the secondaries, Ashby has not only turned in nine consecutive scoreless appearances, but his underlying metrics suggest that his success is no fluke. In addition to his aforementioned eye-popping strikeout rate of 42.9%, Ashby's ground ball rate has jumped up to 78.9%.

This is not to say Ashby's sinker is a bad pitch; it's far from it. At 97.7 mph with nearly 14 inches of horizontal movement, the pitch is a nightmare for opposing hitters. However, the sinker should not be Ashby's strikeout pitch, especially considering how elite his secondary offerings are. A pitch mix closer to his August numbers is what the dominant southpaw should be sporting, rather than the pitch usage he displayed during the months of June and July.

Ashby's return to the dominance that he displayed at the beginning of the season is a key development for the Brew Crew; Ashby is the keystone of Milwaukee's 'pen. Said manager Pat Murphy on his southpaw earlier today, "He’s very focused, he’s very team-oriented. He’s everything you want in a guy. He wants to go every day. He’ll want to pitch today." Ashby almost certainly won't throw against the Atlanta Braves today after throwing 40 pitches yesterday, but he will remain a huge part of the Brewers' bullpen down the stretch, even when fellow southpaw JoJo Romero joins the picture in the coming weeks. When asked if Romero's addition will eat into Ashby's workload of high-leverage innings, Murphy said, "Ashby’s our guy. We’re not going to change his role."

With an improved pitch mix, a series of scoreless outings building up, and restored effectiveness he enjoyed at the beginning of the 2026 campaign, Ashby looks primed for a dominant final stretch, which the Brewers will need if they want to make a deep run in the postseason.

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