Can the Milwaukee Brewers afford another Freddy Peralta extension?

In what would have been a huge story on almost any other day, the Milwaukee Brewers' ace asking for a contract extension was drowned out by the noise created from both the Aaron Civale trade and the debut of Jacob Misiorowski. However, as reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Freddy Peralta is hoping to remain in Milwaukee on a contract that extends beyond the $8 million club option that the team holds for the 2026 season.

While keeping Peralta in a Brewers uniform seems like a no-brainer, especially if Freddy himself is interested in remaining in the blue and gold, the question is can the Brewers afford another extension of their soon-to-be two-time All-Star starting pitcher? Here's what a Peralta extension might look like and a few things to consider as the Brewers' front office weighs its decision.

What might a Freddy Peralta extension look like?

Peralta signed a five-year, $15.5 million contract with the Brewers in February of 2020. That deal included two $8 million club options at the end of it, one of which Peralta is currently pitching on, and the other would keep him in Milwaukee for the 2026 season.

Up to this point, it's been one of the best contract extensions in Brewers history. When the team agreed to the extension, Peralta had shown signs of being an intriguing big-league arm, but his game needed refinement, and he was still in an ill-defined role on the Brewers' pitching staff. But since joining the starting rotation in a full-time capacity in the 2021 season, Peralta has posted a 3.38 ERA while averaging more than 24 starts per season and striking out far more than a batter in an inning. In other words, he's turned into a bona fide ace, refining and adjusting his game to continue finding success against ever-improving big-league hitters.

With that in mind, another Peralta extension wouldn't come cheap. First, let's start with the presumed length of a hypothetical contract. When the Brewers would officially lose control of Peralta, at the end of next season, he will be 30 years old — a normal age for a starting pitcher reaching free agency. However, it puts the Brewers in a difficult situation. Peralta, given his track record and lack of major injuries, could easily ask for seven or eight years, keeping him under contract through his age 37 or 38 season, which isn't a ridiculous ask from a starting pitcher.

The Brewers, on the other hand, who have handed out just three contracts longer than five years, would prefer a shorter-term deal. A five-year extension, on top of the one year that Peralta has left on his current contract, feels like a good middle ground. It would keep Freddy under control through his age-36 season, without the Brewers worrying about a significant drop-off in production at the tail end of his contract.

Now, the money. As laid out in MLB Trade Rumors' article detailing Peralta's request for an extension, there are several other contracts that the Brewers can look to when coming up with a reasonable price for their ace. Each of Garrett Crochet, José Berríos, Luis Castillo, Tyler Glasnow, and Joe Musgrove signed contract extensions while in a similar position to where Peralta currently stands. The average annual value (AAV) of those five extensions? Just north of $23 million a year.

Additionally, the most reasonable of the bunch are José Berríos's seven-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays and Joe Musgrove's deal with the San Diego Padres, which were each signed more than two years ago. It's fair to say that Peralta will expect at least five years and $20 million a year, but it's likely that both of those numbers are on the low end of what Peralta and his agent would accept. To be safe, let's tack on another year to the contract but keep the average annual value the same, but get rid of the Brewers' club option for next season. So the final tally is a six-year, $120 million extension for Peralta that begins at the start of the 2026 season. Is that something the Brewers can afford?

Can the Brewers afford a Peralta extension?

Let's take a look at the cost of just the Brewers' starting rotation going forward. Civale is off the books, Brandon Woodruff will either pitch on a $20 million contract next season or receive a $10 million buyout, and José Quintana will more than likely be a free agent as well, though he holds a $15 million mutual option with a $2 million buyout. So just by letting Woody and Quintana walk, the Brewers are effectively spending $12 million (or saving $23 million if you're more of a glass-half-full type of person). Aaron Ashby is in his year three of a five-year contract extension and is set to make $5.7 million next year. Every other Brewers starting pitcher that should impact the team in 2026 is still on a rookie deal next season.

In that regard, the Brewers should have a relatively cheap starting rotation for the next three seasons before guys like Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, and Chad Patrick hit arbitration, which could be conducive to a Peralta extension. However, even with an inexpensive supporting cast, $20 million for Peralta means roughly one-sixth of the Brewers’ payroll would be going to a single player for the next half a decade. Pair that with Yelich's $24 million contract, and it becomes even more difficult to justify.

The Brewers simply don't have the payroll to be consistently paying two players more than $20 million a year for the foreseeable future. They can get away with some bigger deals on a short-term basis (see Rhys Hoskins' $18 million contract this season), but when it comes to extending players for a long amount of time, it is simply a game that the Brewers don't play. More than any other team, the Brewers cannot afford to have "dead weight" on their roster — a player that doesn't live up to his contract. And while no one can say how Peralta will progress over the next five or six years, the threat of having to pay Peralta $20 million in a season where his performance dips or he gets injured is likely enough to scare the Brewers away from a long-term extension with their ace.

If they don't extend Peralta, should they trade him?

Given the Brewers’ avoidance of long-term extensions and their willingness to part with their high-end talent prior to free agency in an effort to preserve long-term success, Peralta's name has surfaced in trade conversations. While his trade value might never be higher, the Brewers are not currently in a position to trade their ace. For an ace on a playoff contender to be making less than $10 million, while not on a rookie contract, is unheard of. Again, the Brewers’ extension of Peralta more than five years ago was one of the best in franchise history.

Peralta is simply too valuable to the current Brewers roster to trade this season, and with an $8 million salary next season, an offseason trade would be difficult to swallow as well — the return would have to be significant.

However, if the Brewers do hold on to Peralta through the end of his contract, by picking up his club option next season and refusing the many trade offers they will receive, they won't necessarily come up empty. This past offseason, the Brewers earned a draft pick after extending a qualifying offer to Willy Adames before he left in free agency. They can do the same with Peralta after next season, and if Freddy chooses to walk — which would be a wise financial decision — and Peralta subsequently signs a contract worth more than $50 million — which he will — the Brewers will earn a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick.

So amid the talks of extensions and trades, the best thing that the Brewers can do with their ace is just sit tight and continue to watch the All-Star worthy display that he has been putting on this year.