Comparing Luis Rengifo and Caleb Durbin's 2026 projections

At this time last week, the Milwaukee Brewers' 2026 infield group was seemingly set in stone. A starting lineup of Caleb Durbin at third base, Joey Ortiz at short, Brice Turang at the keystone position, and a platoon of Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers at first base felt inevitable until Milwaukee's front office shocked the fanbase by sending Durbin to the Boston Red Sox on Monday morning.

The deal not only sent Durbin to Boston, but it also cleared out the Brewers' depth chart at third base, with other options Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler also joining the Red Sox in the deal. However, the most shocking development of the deal remains the fact that Milwaukee parted ways with Durbin one year after he headlined the Devin Williams trade, especially when paired with the fact that the soon-to-be 26-year-old was a finalist for the NL Rookie of the Year Award last year.

Milwaukee isn't generally in the business of trading away young, controllable talent that is almost guaranteed to provide surplus value to the roster in the coming years, but a closer look at the Durbin deal provides sound logic for the late-offseason swap.

The justification for trading Durbin starts with the swath of infield talent that is rising through the Brewers' farm system. With a group of top prospects that includes Jesús Made, Jett Williams, Luis Peña, Cooper Pratt, Andrew Fischer, and Brock Wilken, all of whom can man at least one position on the left side of the infield, it's likely that Durbin would have been relegated to a utility infielder role by the end of the 2027 campaign at the latest. Yes, the Brewers could have used Durbin's services during the 2026 season, but there's no guarantee that his value would have been the same on the trade market this time next year.

Which brings us to the second main reason that the Brewers were comfortable moving on from Durbin, despite the scrappy infielder being five years away from free agency. After his impressive rookie campaign, Durbin's value was through the roof, and given his underlying metrics that indicate at least a small step backwards could be in his future, Milwaukee understandably decided to cash in while his trade value was high, adding not one but two controllable left-handed starters to their organization.

The move becomes even easier to stomach now that the Brewers have added a free agent infielder in the wake of the trade. On Friday night, Milwaukee agreed to a one-year, $3.5 million deal with former Los Angeles Angel Luis Rengifo, who is likely to see plenty of time at third base in 2026. While it might be premature to call Rengifo Durbin's replacement, Brewers fans' concerns about not having a single third baseman on their roster have been somewhat alleviated by the recent signing.

Assuming Durbin's role on the team would have been diminished in 2027, due to the promotion of one or more top prospects, it makes more sense why the Brewers were willing to turn his high current value into more controllable pitching, knowing that down the road the latter would be far more valuable to their roster. However, that still leaves the 2026 season in question. But if Rengifo, who cost a reasonable $3.5 million to acquire, is a serviceable replacement for Durbin, then the series of moves was a no-brainer for the Brewers' front office.

So, the most pressing question is: can Rengifo replace the production that Milwaukee lost by trading Durbin?

2026 projection models show modest difference between Luis Rengifo and Caleb Durbin's expected production

Stat projection models are an imperfect science. Depending on the inputs that analysts choose to include in their models and which data they feed them, the results can vary significantly. However, when taken as a whole, the growing number of MLB stat projection models paint a decently accurate picture of the production that fans can expect from players in the upcoming year. Let's take a look at how some of the more popular projection models expect Rengifo and Durbin to compare in 2026. As a reminder, the slashline at the beginning of the stat lines represents batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage.

Baseball Reference's projection model

Rengifo: .258/.316/.389, .705 OPS, 12 HR,18 2B, 14 SB
Durbin: .258/.333/.403, .735 OPS, 12 HR, 22 2B, 14 SB

ZiPS (Dan Szymborski's) projection model

Rengifo: .250/.302/.363, .665 OPS, 9 HR, 10 SB, 0.4 WAR
Durbin: .249/.328/.383, .711 OPS, 10 HR, 20 SB, 2.4 WAR

Steamer projection model

Rengifo: .252/.307/.388, .695 OPS, 9 HR, 9 SB, 1.1 WAR
Durbin: .267/.339/.406, .742 OPS, 10 HR, 19 SB, 2.0 WAR

The BAT projection model

Rengifo: .248/.299/.360, .659 OPS, 8 HR, 12 SB, 0.5 WAR
Durbin: .252/.316/.369, .685 OPS, 10 HR, 20 SB, 1.6 WAR

Durbin certainly holds the edge in most of these projection models, but in general, it's a rather modest advantage. The difference in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) that can be seen in the final three comparisons is in large part due to Durbin's defensive and baserunning skills. Rengifo, who has been a below-average defender at third base throughout his career, is certainly a step back from Durbin, who made impressive strides at the hot corner last year, when it comes to his defensive abilities.

However, on the offensive side of the ball, there isn't a huge difference between Durbin and Rengifo. Additionally, there's reason to believe that these projection models favor Durbin. For one, Rengifo is coming off of an uncharacteristically poor season (one reason the Brewers were able to sign him for so cheap), which is certainly skewing his projections. Meanwhile, Durbin is coming off a likely unsustainably strong campaign, which could lead to the projection models overestimating his value in 2026.

Overall, the Brewers' decision to trade Durbin to the Red Sox at the beginning of the week left the 2026 infield picture in question, but because of Milwaukee's group of talented infield prospects who are roughly one year away from the majors, not too much value beyond the 2026 season was lost by trading Durbin. Now, after signing Rengifo, the Brewers have nearly replaced Durbin's expected offensive output with a modest $3.5 million signing, while also adding two high-upside left-handers in Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan to their 40-man roster.