Early 2026 win total odds show inexplicable Brewers decline

The Milwaukee Brewers have been disrespected by the national media all offseason, routinely getting ranked below teams in power rankings that they proved they could beat in 2025.

Of course, this isn't some new phenomenon, but after a franchise-record 97-win campaign, you'd think the Crew would get a little more love from the big-name pundits.

Alas, the underdog mentality is once again the persona the Brewers will have to adapt in 2026, at least if the sportsbooks are to be believed. According to Vegas Insider, the team's over/under win total this upcoming season is set at just 86.5, a good four games behind the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central.

Brewers remain unable to get any offseason love from win total oddsmakers

This isn't some one-off thing, either. FanDuel has Milwaukee's over/under total set even lower, at just 85.5 wins. They're also less bullish on the Cubs (o/u 88.5 wins), but the Cincinnati Reds are projected to finish within shouting distance of the Crew (o/u 81.5 wins).

It's hard to be too upset with coming in second behind the Cubs at the moment — it's where the Brewers found themselves last offseason. Add to that the fact that the Cubs have added Alex Bregman and Edward Cabrera in the last week, and have spent most of the offseason rebuilding their bullpen with free-agent signings and the positioning is at least justifiable. Plus, bigger market teams always see a bit more action, so it behooves the oddsmakers to inflate their totals, if only slightly.

However, the Brewers are returning essentially the same team that won 97 games during the regular season last year, after bringing back Brandon Woodruff on the qualifying offer and turning redundant pieces in Isaac Collins and Nick Mears into the high-upside of Ángel Zerpa's left arm. On top of that, there's always room for internal improvements from the team's cast of young stars (i.e., Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Ortiz, etc.), even if there are a few in-house regression candidates.

But is the Brewers' somewhat quiet offseason enough to justify knocking them down by 11 wins (or 12, in FanDuel's case)? Absolutely not, especially since the biggest loss the organization has suffered is Danny Jansen signing a two-year deal with the Texas Rangers. Yes, he had a 119 wRC+ in Milwaukee, but he also only played in 25 games. Losing his 0.4 fWAR won't condemn the Brewers to mediocrity, despite what the books are predicting.

Of course, it would be nice if the Brewers had the budget for Matt Arnold to make an impact addition (preferably other than by way of a Freddy Peralta trade), but that feels unlikely given the current state of the payroll and the uncertainty surrounding Milwaukee's 2026 TV deal.

Regardless, this is just the same old story in a new iteration. By now, the rest of the NL Central has learned to doubt the Brewers at their own peril.