ESPN's bold predictions at two week mark have Pat Murphy in a league of his own

Over the past two MLB seasons, both Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers and Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians have earned Manager of the Year honors in their respective leagues. Despite having the same amount of time at the helm, what they’ve accomplished is especially impressive given the fact that both of them started managing just two years ago. That's right, both Murphy and Vogt share the honor of being the first ever managers to win Manager of the Year in each of their first two seasons as a skipper.

Despite their newness in the roles, both Murphy and Vogt have done nothing but lead division winners. They’ve accomplished this even after being written off in preseason rankings, where the prevailing belief was that rosters with more offseason subtractions than additions simply couldn’t repeat and return to the playoffs.

2026 is no different, especially for Milwaukee. This winter the Brewers traded their ace Freddy Peralta, 2025 everyday third baseman and NL Rookie of the Year candidate Caleb Durbin, and promising young outfielder Isaac Collins. Though the Brewers received some intriguing young players in each of those trades, their only free agent additions were Akil Baddo, Luis Rengifo, and Gary Sanchez, none of whom would qualify as top-tier free agents.

Yet two weeks into the regular season, this doubted Brewers team is on top of the National League Central once again. Well, tied at the top of the division, which is the most competitive in MLB through the first fortnight of the season. They've done this while posting an impressive +20 run differential and leading the league in stolen bases by a wide margin, all while being without key contributors Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn, and Quinn Priester. That's the kind of resume that catches the attention of those who speculate about the Manager of the Year award in early April.

ESPN's "two-week bold predictions" have Brewers manager Pat Murphy winning his third consecutive Manager of the Year award in 2026

Over at ESPN.com, the site's team of MLB writers produced a collection of "hot takes," which includes Kyle Harrison putting together a breakout season in 2026. The article also includes senior ESPN MLB writer Buster Olney predicting that Murphy will win Manager of the Year again in 2026. Check out the full article, which is linked below for your convenience.

2026 MLB predictions: Our hottest hot takes two weeks in

Olney notes that the skippers whose teams exceed expectations often win Manager of the Year. With Milwaukee losing three core pieces from a club that posted the best record in baseball last season, along with relying on a relatively inexperienced starting rotation, those circumstances could already give Murphy a clear edge if the Brewers capture a fourth straight division title.

It’s also worth considering the notable injuries Milwaukee has sustained in the early goings of the 2026 campaign. Both Chourio and Vaughn were expected to be key offensive contributors, making the Brewers’ ability to remain a high-scoring team without them even more impressive. It’s a testament to Murphy’s ability to have his team playing a style of baseball that maximizes the talent available.

Ultimately, if the Brewers continue to defy expectations, it will only further solidify Murphy’s case as a legitimate Manager of the Year candidate once again. Capturing a fourth straight division title under these circumstances would speak not only to talent but also to leadership, adaptability, and sustained overachievement, the exact qualities that typically define award-winning managerial success.

If Murphy does win a third Manager of the Year award, he would become just the 10th manager in MLB history to capture the honor three or more times (but the first to do so in three consecutive years), further cementing his place among the most accomplished skippers in the game, despite just recently earning the position.