Evidence is building that Brewers are already falling behind in the NL Central

The Milwaukee Brewers dusted the competition in the NL Central last year. They won the division by 10 games and they outscored the Cubs, who finished tied for second, by 69 runs. Not only that, but they've won the Central in 3 of the last 4 years, winning 366 games in that span and looking like a machine. Unfortunately, we're starting to see evidence that at least two division foes are catching up.

In one of the biggest moves of the winter, the Cubs traded for Astros' superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker. The lefty immediately becomes the best hitter in an already solid Cubs' lineup and even though he might just be a one-year rental, Tucker is going to be a problem for the rest of the division in 2025.

And down in Cincinnati, the Reds will see Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand return after both missed significant portions of 2024 to injury. In McLain's case, he missed the entire year. But having posted a 127 wRC+ with a .290/.357/.503 slash line in 2023, getting McLain back healthy is a massive win for a Reds team that also added starter Brady Singer to an already strong rotation.

In the Brewers' case, the biggest move of the off-season to this point has been the Devin Williams - Nestor Cortes trade. Cortes should lengthen the rotation a bit but losing Williams, despite an already strong bullpen in Milwaukee, is nothing to sneeze at. Thankfully Brandon Woodruff and his balky shoulder are set to return in 2025, which has the potential to be a major boost to the rotation.

Early projections have multiple Brewers' division rivals as significantly better in 2025

While we don't have them for the Brewers yet, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections are out for both the Cubs and Reds and they confirm the idea that both teams will be looking to push the Brewers in 2025. In the Cubs' case, ZiPS has them 5-6 games better than in 2024, which would push them right to the cusp of 90 wins. For the Reds, the positive momentum is the same but ZiPS thinks they'll be an 82-84 win team, rather than the sub .500 club they were last year.

What about the Brewers? Well, the loss of Williams won't be a major factor for the projections. In his best season, Williams was worth 2.2 fWAR - there's only so much impact you can have when you throw 60 innings a year. But Williams' departure is still meaningful. It leaves the bullpen in the hands of Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, and Jared Koenig, all three of whom have been good, but not in 'best reliever in baseball' territory.

Woodruff will return, albeit with many questions. Cortes looked healthy in 2024 but dealt with a questionable shoulder himself in 2023. Christian Yelich will hopefully be healthy as well but he's entering his age 33 season. And the departure of Willy Adames in free agency, along with his 4.8 fWAR, is a major hit to the Brewers' lineup. To this point, the plan from Matt Arnold and the Brewers' front office seems to be to hope that Luis Ortiz and Garrett Mitchell take major steps forward.

Given the current local TV broadcast situation, it's understandable that the team is hesitant to add significant payroll this winter. But hoping for the best while the teams around you are actively getting better via trade and free agent signings is a risky play. The Brewers may be able to hold serve and win their third straight division title in 2025, but the rest of the NL Central is going to be hot on their tails. 2025 is setting up to be a much closer division race than it was last year.