Former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes just threw a September wrench in NL Wild Card race

Corbin Burnes shocked the baseball world when he agreed to a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks in late December of 2024. The D-Backs weren't seen as a player for the top starter on the free agent market during the 2024-25 offseason, but Burnes' desire to pitch in Arizona ultimately got the deal across the finish line.

However, Burnes' tenure in the desert has not gone as neither he nor the Diamondbacks hoped it would through the first two seasons of his expensive contract. Burnes was off to a strong start during the 2025 season, his first in Arizona, with a 2.66 ERA in 11 starts to prove it. Unfortunately, the former Milwaukee Brewers' ace suffered torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in early June of 2025, which required him to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Burnes' recovery from Tommy John surgery was complicated by a shoulder strain earlier this summer, which set his return to a big-league mound back two months. However, as just recently announced by the Diamondbacks, Burnes will make his long-awaited return to the mound tonight, in Arizona's matchup with the Kansas City Royals. Though his pitch count will be limited, the fact that Burnes is rejoining the D-Backs' pitching staff in the middle of their postseason push could have a major impact on the National League Wild Card race.

Corbin Burnes to make his return tonight after 15 months on the IL as D-Backs try to hold off Padres in NL Wild Card race

It's been nearly five years since Burnes was named the third Cy Young Award winner in Brewers history. In the time since, Burnes saw his relationship with the Brewers soured due to a tense arbitration hearing, was traded to the Baltimore Orioles, where he was named to his fourth All-Star Game, and then signed a mega contract with the D-Backs the following year. Oddly enough, despite Burnes residing in the American League during the 2024 season and missing much of the 2025 and 2026 seasons due to injury, the Brewers have faced their former ace in each of the last two seasons and lost each of those two contests by surrendering late leads.

For the Brewers to face Burnes for a third consecutive season, the Brewers and Diamondbacks would have to meet in the postseason, which is by no means out of the question. Arizona currently holds the final Wild Card spot in the NL, leading their division rivals, the San Diego Padres, by 0.5 game in the standings. If the season ended today, the D-Backs would have to defeat the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Round and knock off the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers in the Divisional Round to potentially meet the Brewers in the League Championship Series.

However, the D-Backs climbing to the second Wild Card spot in the NL is by no means out of the question, and Burnes' addition to the staff could play a key role. Arizona is currently 4.0 games back of the Chicago Cubs for the second Wild Card spot and 4.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the top Wild Card spot in the NL. That said, Arizona has a far easier remaining schedule than the Cubs or Phillies, meaning they could close that gap and make things interesting down the stretch. Should Arizona end up grabbing one of the top two Wild Card spots and the Brewers hang on for the No. 1 seed, a meeting between the Burnes and the Brewers in the postseason is possible. Ironically, the final postseason game Burnes pitched for the Brewers back in 2023 was a loss to the Diamondbacks.

Regardless of whether or not the Brewers see Burnes and the D-Backs in October, the former NL Cy Young's addition to Arizona's pitching staff is notable. Few are expecting Burnes to come back and be the dominant force he was before the injury, but even a less effective Corbin Burnes could have a major impact on the NL playoff picture. Brewers fans should therefore keep a close eye on his long-awaited return to the mound tonight.

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