Here are the 5 Brewers prospects most likely to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft

Deadlines spur action and tell us how teams really view players. The deadline to add players to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is approaching on Tuesday night. The Milwaukee Brewers have several players that are eligible for Rule 5 that they may deem worth protecting.

A few years ago, the Brewers opted not to protect top pitching prospect Zack Brown. Despite being the 3rd ranked prospect in the system at the time and pitching in the upper minors, Brown was not picked. That decision told us plenty about how the Brewers viewed Brown and how other teams viewed him. Brown was never able to push through to the majors.

Heading into Tuesday night's deadline, the Brewers 40 man roster stands at 36, meaning they have four open spots they could give to minor league prospects to protect them. While it's unlikely Milwaukee uses all four open spots on these prospects, there are several that warrant consideration for protection.

Here are 5 Brewers prospects most likely to get protected from the Rule 5 Draft

Logan Henderson

The top rated eligible Brewers pitching prospect, Logan Henderson currently ranks 11th on MLB Pipeline's Top 30 list. Henderson, a 4th round pick in 2021, has risen through the ranks dramatically with a strong and finally healthy season. Working his way up from rehabbing in rookie ball to High-A, to Double-A, to Triple-A, Henderson pitched to a 3.32 ERA in 19 starts with 104 strikeouts and just 15 walks.

Henderson has put himself on the radar for the Brewers 2025 starting rotation and he could very easily start next season in the big leagues. If another team takes him in the Rule 5 Draft, he'd have to, and there's a very high likelihood someone would snag Henderson if he's left unprotected. That's exactly why he's not likely to be left unprotected.

Chances of being added: 99.9%

Coleman Crow

Acquired in the Adrian Houser/Tyrone Taylor trade last offseason, Coleman Crow spent the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He showcased some brilliant stuff in 2023 prior to going under the knife and the Brewers are hoping he can show that stuff again when he's fully healthy in 2025.

Crow was healthy enough to make the Arizona Fall League this year to get some innings under his belt post-surgery. In four games, Crow had an 8.00 ERA with two walks and six strikeouts over nine innings.

Because of the question marks coming off TJS, Crow being able to stick on an MLB team all season seems unlikely, so the risk of losing him if left unprotected seems minimal. The Brewers also may want to see more than nine innings from him before they put him on their 40 man roster.

Chances of being added: 5%

Shane Smith

Shane Smith burst onto the scene a little bit in 2024, transitioning from the bullpen to the starting rotation in Double-A Biloxi and succeeding in the role. He finished the year with a 3.05 ERA with 113 Ks in 94.1 IP and just 29 walks allowed and made it up to Triple-A. He could help a big league team in very short order either sticking as a starter or coming out of the bullpen.

This is going to be where the rubber meets the road on how the Brewers view Smith as a prospect. If they legitimately think he can be an MLB guy for them in 2025, they should be adding him to the roster and protect him. If they aren't big believers in his stuff, then they'll leave him off. Perhaps there's a chance the Brewers know they have something good in Smith but leave him off hoping he'll sneak through undrafted. If that's the case, it'd be very risky.

Chances of being added: 30%

Justin Yeager

The third piece acquired in the William Contreras trade, Justin Yeager had some injury troubles in 2023, but was healthy in 2024 and pitched entirely out of the bullpen with some decent results. He also spent the entire year in Double-A, meaning he has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level, which would diminish his chances of being picked in the Rule 5 or being protected.

That said, relievers can move up the ladder quicker than starters can and he's close enough that he may warrant a spot.

Chances of being added: 10%

Chad Patrick

Acquired for Abraham Toro last offseason, Chad Patrick did just about everything the Brewers could have asked him to do in Triple-A Nashville in 2024. He won International League pitcher of the year, pitching to a 2.90 ERA in 136.1 IP with 145 strikeouts. He was durable, reliable, and kept damage to a minimum. If the timing had worked out better for any of the Brewers rotation needs, we could've seen him in the majors this past season.

Instead, Patrick spent the entire year in Triple-A and he could absolutely help a big league team's rotation in 2025. The Brewers have seen Colin Rea, Frankie Montas, Joe Ross, Bryse Wilson, and Wade Miley leave their rotation depth and enter free agency this offseason and the Brewers need to replace that depth. Patrick is a logical addition from the minors. He's not a highly touted prospect and flies under the radar, but it's unlikely other teams pass on the ability to add him.

Chances of being added: 80%

If I had to guess, Henderson and Patrick will be added to the 40 man roster as the deadline approaches. They should be ready fairly quickly in 2025 and will provide important depth to the starting rotation. There's also little chance both would make it through the Rule 5 Draft without being picked if left unprotected.