How Brewers' postseason path could be impacted by NL Wild Card's photo finish

While playoff baseball is officially returning to the Cream City once again in 2026, the Milwaukee Brewers have not yet finalized their seed in this year's postseason. That said, with a Magic Number of 1 to secure a better record than the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, Pat Murphy's squad looks all but certain to earn a first-round bye for the second consecutive season. In fact, already with a franchise-record-breaking 98 wins, two more than the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, with whom they hold the tiebreaker, the Brewers have a good chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the postseason for the second straight year.

As the Brewers look to finalize their spot atop MLB's standings over the final six games of the regular season, a much tighter race is materializing in the NL Wild Card picture. The outcome of the NL Wild Card race has a direct impact on Milwaukee's path through the postseason, meaning Brewers fans should be keeping a close eye on the three teams jockeying for position as the regular season comes to a close. Here's how the NL Wild Card standings look entering play on Monday, September 21.

NL Wild Card standings as of September 21

1. Chicago Cubs (87-69) -- holds tiebreaker over Padres, Phillies, and D-Backs
2. San Diego Padres (87-69)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (86-70) -- holds tiebreaker over Padres
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4. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-74) -- holds tiebreaker over Phillies, tiebreaker vs. Padres TBD

The Arizona Diamondbacks are not mathematically eliminated from the postseason, and with three games against the Colorado Rockies before finishing the season with three games against the San Diego Padres, they still have an outside chance to steal a Wild Card spot. The D-Backs haven't technically earned the tiebreaker over the Philadelphia Phillies yet, as the two teams split their season series, and Arizona still has six intradivision matchups remaining (record vs. division opponents is used as the second tiebreaker). However, Arizona has a 28-18 record against the NL West this year, and the Phillies have a finalized 28-24 record against the NL East. The tiebreaker is irrelevant if the D-Backs lose out, so in that regard, should the tiebreaker matter, Arizona will have the advantage over Philadelphia.

That said, what's far more pressing, especially for the Brewers, is the race that is going on between the Phillies, Padres, and Cubs. Only one of those three teams will end up hosting a Wild Card Series, and which of the three that ends up being could play a significant role in who ends up playing the Brewers in the NLDS. With that in mind, let's take a closer look at how the Wild Card race could play out.

Cubs, Padres, and Phillies fighting for home-field advantage in Wild Card Series as regular season comes to a close

As a reminder, the No. 6 seed (third Wild Card team) plays the No. 3 seed in a best-of-three Wild Card Series, the entirety of which takes place at the No. 3 seed's home stadium. For clarity's sake, that means, given the current NL playoff picture, the Braves would host their division rivals, the Phillies, in a best-of-three series in Atlanta. The winner of that matchup advances to the NLDS to play the No. 2 seed, which is currently the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, the No. 4 seed (top Wild Card team) and the No. 5 seed (second Wild Card team) play each other in a best-of-three Wild Card Series at the No. 4 seed's stadium, to earn a date with the No. 1 seed in the NLDS. That means, as things currently stand, for the second consecutive year, the Cubs would host the Padres in the Wild Card Series with the winner advancing to the NLDS to face the Brewers.

However, that could all change before the end of the regular season, especially given the Cubs, Padres, and Phillies' remaining schedules.

Remaining schedules of NL Wild Card teams:

1. Chicago Cubs -- 3 games vs. Miami Marlins, 3 at Boston Red Sox
2. San Diego Padres -- 3 at Los Angeles Dodgers, 3 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Philadelphia Phillies -- 3 vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 3 vs. Tampa Bay Rays
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4. Arizona Diamondbacks -- 3 at Colorado Rockies, 3 at San Diego Padres

The Cubs finish their season with three games against the Red Sox, who may not have anything to play for at that point, the Padres play the mighty Dodgers and then finish with three games against the only team who can still mathematically kick them out of the postseason picture, and the Phillies play the top team in the NL and the top team in the AL in their final two series. Put simply, anything can happen, especially with the reward of a home postseason series on the line.

The Brewers will be watching closely as the Wild Card race plays out. Assuming the Brewers do earn the No. 1 seed, Milwaukee wouldn't face the eventual No. 6 seed until a hypothetical matchup in the NLCS. The Brewers' NLDS matchup, meanwhile, could come down to whichever team has home-field advantage in the No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed Wild Card series. Pair that with the fact that the Brewers will play a role in determining the Wild Card race's outcome, given the fact that they start a three-game series with the Phillies tomorrow night, and there's plenty on the line for the first-place Brew Crew over the final week of the regular season.

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