How Caleb Durbin’s 2025 season compares to preseason expectations

When Caleb Durbin showed up to camp this spring, there weren’t too many bold predictions being made about his future. Despite being a big part of the return for Devin Williams, he wasn’t a top prospect, didn’t carry a ton of hype, and wasn’t penciled into the Brewers’ everyday plans. If anything, he was seen as a long shot — maybe a spark plug type who might run his way onto the roster if a few things broke right.

Fast-forward a few months, and Durbin hasn’t just made the team — he’s become a key contributor. Quietly, consistently, and far under the radar. He’s doing exactly what good teams need: showing up and playing smart baseball.

Now, as we approach the halfway mark of the season, it’s fair to ask: how does Durbin’s 2025 stack up against what we expected just a few months ago? 

Brewers’ unsung rookie Caleb Durbin is trending right on schedule

During spring training, Durbin’s performance offered some promise. He slashed .259/.339/.407 with two home runs, seven RBIs, and 10 stolen bases in 18 games. It wasn’t anything overwhelming, but it was efficient, and it reinforced his reputation as a high-IQ player who could impact the game in subtle but meaningful ways. It earned him a long look, though few projected him as anything more than a useful bench piece or platoon weapon heading into the regular season.

Durbin has not only found a way to stick around — he’s become a mainstay in Milwaukee’s lineup, locking down an everyday role at third base. Through 60 games, he’s slashing .236/.318/.349. Those numbers won’t jump off the page, but they align almost perfectly with ZiPS’ preseason projections, which had him pegged at .233/.317/.356. In other words, he’s done exactly what was expected of him.

One area where he’s clearly exceeded expectations is his plate discipline. Durbin has only struck out 22 times in 225 plate appearances — placing him among the top two percent of hitters in strikeout rate league-wide. That kind of contact profile is rare in today’s game and adds value beyond the box score.

His power output remains modest, but he’s already hit four home runs and is tracking toward eight to ten on the year, slightly exceeding the seven home runs the projection systems forecasted. His stolen base totals — currently sitting at six — aren’t quite at the level fans may have hoped for after his spring showcase and record-breaking season in the Arizona Fall League, but he’s still on pace for roughly 12–14 by season’s end. It’s respectable, even if slightly underwhelming given his pedigree as a baserunner.

Perhaps the biggest surprise has been his emergence as a true everyday player. While most analysts expected him to fill in as needed around the infield, Durbin has started regularly at third base. Though he’s not carrying the offense, he’s also not dragging it down. And for a rookie who wasn’t even guaranteed a spot on the roster, that’s a big win.

So how does his 2025 season compare to the preseason expectations? In short, he’s right on track. Durbin has met nearly every statistical projection while exceeding expectations in terms of role and reliability. He’s no longer just a speed-first bench piece — he’s a steady contributor who may just be carving out a long-term future in Milwaukee. If he can continue to build on his power and maintain his elite contact skills, the Brewers may have found themselves an everyday infielder where they were only expecting depth.