How Dustin May's Brewers debut compares to the debuts of Milwaukee's other deadline options

After missing out on top trade target Tarik Skubal at the deadline, the Milwaukee Brewers' front office expertly pivoted and landed a pair of pitchers from the division rival St. Louis Cardinals: right-handed starter Dustin May and lefty reliever JoJo Romero.

May, who was traded at the deadline for the second consecutive year, made his Brewers debut on Thursday afternoon in Milwaukee's series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates. With lofty expectations from the Milwaukee faithful, who are hoping May can be the playoff-caliber rental arm that the Brewers' trade package they surrendered to acquire him suggests he is, the 28-year-old right-hander toughed out a quality start despite not having his best stuff. May, pitching for his fourth organization of the last two years, turned in a six-inning start, during which he allowed just three hits and two earned runs, and struck out five.

The Brewers' newcomer relied heavily on his cutter in his debut, which perhaps should be unsurprising given the fact that the Pirates rolled out seven left-handed hitters in their lineup tonight. Many are expecting May to lean on his strong sinker under the guidance of the Brewers' excellent pitching coach staff. May himself noted after the game that he wanted to mix in the sinker, which he threw just 10 times in his debut, more often. However, his success with the cutter should serve as an encouraging sign that he can be effective against both right- and left-handed hitters going forward.

Overall, it was a solid start to May's tenure in Milwaukee, which is only expected to last through the end of the season, seeing as just a mutual option, which are seldom picked up, stands in the way of him and free agency. Given the noise surrounding the Brewers' deadline and their unsuccessful pursuit of Skubal, May's debut on Thursday afternoon was exactly the type of performance he and the Milwaukee fans were looking for.

May turns in an encouraging performance in his Brewers debut as other traded starters struggle

Many a fool has drawn conclusions from a single baseball game, but given the notoriety of this year's deadline and the few opportunities that traded "rentals" have to make their mark on their new organizations, it feels nevertheless pertinent to note how other rental arms who the Brewers presumably inquired about performed in their debuts.

May's Brewers debut: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Skubal's debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers was by no means poor, but it resembled the performance of a solid, front-line starter, not the reigning back-to-back Cy Young Award winner that he is. Facing the Chicago Cubs, Skubal went six innings and allowed two earned runs on four hits while striking out six, an eerily similar line to the one May produced in his debut with the Brewers.

Skubal's Dodgers debut: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Casey Mize, Skubal's former teammate who was rumored to be a Brewers deadline target before he ultimately landed with the San Diego Padres, turned in a brutal performance with his new squad on Wednesday night. Mize, whose velocity has concerningly dipped as of late, covered just 3.1 innings and allowed eight earned runs against the NL West rival Arizona Diamondbacks.

Mize's Padres debut: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

Former Brewers' ace Freddy Peralta, another rental whom the Brewers never seriously considered reuniting with but certainly could have given his familiarity with the club and his remaining contract, also struggled in his debut with the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing seven earned runs in 3.2 innings while giving up two homers.

Peralta's Rays debut: 3.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Foster Griffin, meanwhile, who went from the Washington Nationals to the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline and is also on an expiring contract, turned in a lackluster performance with his new club. Griffin, who had a 3.06 ERA on the season at the time of his trade, turned in a four-inning start in his Guardians' debut, during which he allowed five earned runs on seven hits.

Griffin's Guardians debut: 4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Other rental arms like Clay Holmes, who the Brewers were reportedly interested in, Kevin Gausman, who included Milwaukee on his no-trade list, and Robbie Ray, have yet to make their debuts, but the list above includes many names that were good fits for the Brewers.

Again, it's just one start, and no overarching conclusions should be drawn from the fact that May is off to a better start than his traded colleagues. However, this exercise's point is to highlight just how different a player's value can appear in a small sample size, and the eight or nine starts that a rental starter would turn in after the trade deadline certainly qualifies as a small sample size. It's by no means out of the question that someone like May produces a similar amount of value over the final two months to an arm like Skubal, despite their prices at the trade deadline being very different. Through one start with their new teams, May and Skubal have produced very similar results, and there's little time remaining for the latter to make up the difference that was reflected in their prices at the deadline.

That said, such a line of analysis ignores the importance of performance in the postseason. For a team like the Dodgers or the Brewers, who appear destined for October baseball, a trade deadline acquisition's value is mostly determined by how they perform in the postseason, so if one of May or Skubal completely out-performs the other in October, their performance during August and September will start to matter far less. Regardless, when once the narrative may have been that the Brewers weren't aggressive enough at the trade deadline, the fact that they gave up a pair of top outfield prospects for what could easily be one of the top two rental starters traded at this year's deadline should not be overlooked.

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