How Pat Murphy’s Game 2 Aaron Ashby gamble changes Brewers’ pitching plan going forward

The Milwaukee Brewers' dominant bullpen has been the star of the show through the team's first six postseason games this year. Milwaukee's relief corps has covered 28.2 innings, allowed just one earned run, and on Monday night became the first bullpen to turn in five perfect frames in a postseason game. While the Brewers await a dominant, lengthy performance from one of their starters, which they have yet to see this postseason, Pat Murphy has relied on his excellent group of relievers to win the NLDS and build a 2-0 series lead in the NLCS.

That said, the way in which Murphy has used his bullpen during the postseason to some extent strays from the tactics he used during the regular season. For example, Abner Uribe is not being used as a traditional eighth-inning set-up man like he was for most of the regular season. Rather, the flame-throwing right-hander is being used in a high-leverage situation against the opposing lineups' best right-handers whenever that may be in the game. Uribe, who has appeared in all six of the Brewers' playoff games this year, has excelled in the role.

Meanwhile, versatile southpaw Aaron Ashby has also seen his role modified in October. While Ashby didn't necessarily have a defined role during the regular season, many expected the Swiss-Army Knife reliever to be the seventh-inning man before Uribe and All-Star closer Trevor Megill covered the final two frames. However, in Game 1 of the NLCS, Ashby was asked to cover the seventh and eighth innings, throwing a total of 26 pitches in the process. Though some expected Ashby to be shut down for Game 2 on Monday afternoon, Murphy once again called upon his dominant left-hander for more than three outs.

Ashby relieved Uribe with one out in the eighth inning -- a decision that was driven by matchups rather than Uribe's performance. Ashby quickly closed out the penultimate frame after striking out Freddie Freeman and getting Teoscar Hernández to bounce out to first base. Brewers fans were expecting to see Megill enter from the 'pen for the save, but Murphy gambled and stuck with Ashby for the final frame. Said decision was also driven mostly by matchups, as the Dodgers had lefties Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy due up in the ninth. Ashby made quick work of Ohtani, Will Smith, and Miguel Rojas, who pinch-hit for Muncy, and the Brewers' series lead improved to 2-0.

Murphy's gamble led many to wonder how the Brewers' pitching staff would be affected for the rest of the series, with many believing that Ashby wouldn't be available for Game 3. However, those who know just how much Ashby wants to pitch every day know the southpaw will absolutely be ready after Tuesday's off-day, which leaves the Brewers' bullpen in a great spot and the Dodgers' lineup less familiar with Megill.

Brewers' bullpen expected to be at full strength for Game 3 after Pat Murphy limits Dodgers' lineup's exposure to closer Trevor Megill

Familiarity with opposing relievers is something that certainly plays a role in a seven-game series. By the end of the series, lineups may have seen an opposing reliever four or five times, and that familiarity certainly works in the batter's favor. Pat Murphy and his coaching staff were considering the impact of familiarity when making the decision to leave Ashby in for the ninth inning in Game 2, as the Brewers' manager said in his postgame press conference.

Whereas Ashby has four different pitches he can use to retire opposing hitters, Megill relies on just two dominant offerings. Ashby, therefore, has more options of how to attack hitters even if he's seen them several times. Take, for example, Megill's at-bat against Muncy in Game 1. With a one-run lead, the Brewers clearly didn't want to give Muncy a fastball that he could square up and send over the fence, so Megill threw four consecutive curveballs to the Dodgers' slugger. Had Megill faced Muncy again in Game 2, would he have stuck with that strategy or challenged Muncy with a fastball and risked giving up a big hit? Regardless, having another data point against Megill would have allowed Muncy to better predict what the Brewers' closer was going to throw him in a potential matchup later in the series. The decision to stick with Ashby, therefore, sets Megill up for success as the series continues.

Additionally, with the off-day on Tuesday, Ashby should still be available to throw in Game 3 tonight should the Brewers need him to. Yes, the dominant left-hander threw 47 pitches in two days, but Ashby is used to pitching frequently, and pitch count concerns take on less importance in October. If the situation calls for it, Ashby will undoubtedly be called upon by his manager. Megill, meanwhile, gets two days off and should be more than rested for Game 3 tonight. There's a scenario where Murphy uses his All-Star closer for more than three outs, like he did in Game 1 of the NLDS, which is an easier decision to make now that Megill has had back-to-back rest days.

Overall, Murphy's "gamble" of using Ashby for a five-out save in Game 2 of the NLCS paid off in more ways than one. Pair that with the fact that it shouldn't compromise Ashby's availability for Game 3 tonight, and the decision from the Brewers' skipper looks especially smart.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow