How the Brewers’ strength of schedule in September could affect the NL playoff picture

The 2026 MLB regular season has officially entered its final month. The calendar now, somehow, reads September, and for the second consecutive year, the Milwaukee Brewers are atop the standings with one month left to play. Additionally, even with their 14-run loss to the Chicago Cubs on Monday night, the Brewers still hold the best run differential in all of baseball (+163), as pointed out by MLB.com's Adam McCalvy on "X" this morning.

Though the sour taste of last night's embarrassing loss to the Cubs is no doubt still lingering, the Brewers head into the final weeks of the regular season in an admirable position. They still maintain a 7.0-game lead over their arch-rivals in the division and hold a 2.5-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers for the No. 1 seed in the National League. Additionally, the Brew Crew has a 3.0-game lead over the Atlanta Braves for a first-round bye in this year's postseason.

As the end of the year draws nearer, and "Magic Numbers" become smaller and smaller, a greater emphasis is placed on each individual game, and late-season matchups become rather important. Yes, every game counts the same throughout the season, but when a team is fending off a challenger in a postseason race, a victory in late September seems to carry more weight.

Therefore, the remaining strength of schedule for the Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves -- the three teams vying for a first-round bye in the National League -- is of the utmost importance. An easy September schedule can be the ticket not only to jumping straight to the NLDS but also to building momentum for the postseason.

Brewers and Braves face daunting stretch in September, Dodgers have one of the easiest remaining schedules

As has been highly publicized in recent days, the Brewers are in the midst of a stretch of 10 days in which they will play the Cubs seven times. Chicago, owners of the top Wild Card spot in the National League, sport a 78-60 record after last night's blowout victory over the Brew Crew. Six contests against the North Siders in the month of September therefore raise the difficulty of the Brewers' remaining schedule considerably. Add in three contests against the Philadelphia Phillies, who have an identical record to the Cubs (but don't hold the tiebreaker in the Wild Card race), and three games against the Baltimore Orioles, who sit just 0.5 games back of a playoff spot, and the Brewers have the 8th-hardest remaining schedule in baseball.

MLB's strength of schedule in September:

1. Cincinnati Reds (.579 - winning percentage of remaining opponents)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (.546)
3. Chicago Cubs (.541)
4. Miami Marlins (.534)
5. Atlanta Braves (.534)
6. Tampa Bay Rays (.517)
7. San Francisco Giants (.515)
8. Milwaukee Brewers (.514)
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27. Los Angeles Dodgers (.470)

As seen in the standings above, the Braves face a tougher slate of games in September than the Brewers, with matchups against the Rays, Cubs, Astros, and Marlins, as well as two key series against the NL East-challenging Phillies. Atlanta does enter the month of September as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning seven games in a row before losing last night to the Giants. The Phillies, however, are just as hot, which should make for an exciting battle between the two NL East powerhouses that could benefit the Brewers, who simply can't afford to see the Braves sweep their two series against Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers, frustratingly, have the easiest remaining schedule in the NL and third-easiest September slate in all of MLB. With six games against the Giants, seven against the Reds, and series against the Cardinals and Nationals on the horizon, Los Angeles could certainly put together a strong final month of the season. Their only remaining series against contending teams come against the Padres, who narrowly have the edge for the final Wild Card spot in the NL, and the Miami Marlins, who are 4.0 games out of the playoff picture with a 69-69 record.

That said, while the differing strengths of schedules clearly stand out on paper, September baseball is rather unpredictable. Sometimes, the teams that are playing with nothing to lose are the most difficult opponents, and games against teams pressing for wins end up being easy victories. Additionally, making playoff seeding predictions based solely on remaining schedules ignores which teams are "in form," and simply have poor season-long records. There's plenty left to be decided over the final four weeks of the season, but the Brewers are certainly happy to once again be heading into the chaos of September with the best record in baseball.

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