Jurickson Profar contract details show Brewers may have missed prime opportunity

Look, we all know that the Milwaukee Brewers weren't going to sign any of the heavyweight free agents this offseason and that is honestly fine. If they couldn't afford to keep Willy Adames who they loved internally, they weren't going to find the money to grab Juan Soto or Alex Bregman. It would have been nice if they could have, but it was never in the cards.

For teams in the Brewers' financial position, they have to be opportunistic and they have done this in the past with real success. Normally, Milwaukee is great at finding players that are being undervalued in the market and getting real production out of them. While not a perfect strategy, it is one the Brewers are generally good at.

Given, it was really puzzling that the Brewers were not connected to Jurickson Profar at all as the deal that Profar signed with the Braves seemed to be very reasonable compared to what other guys have been getting in free agency this offseason.

Jurickson Profar's price should have been right for the Brewers, but the reality may be more complicated

On the surface, Profar's new deal seems right in Milwaukee's wheelhouse. While certainly not cheap at an average of $14 million a year over three years, we are talking about a guy who was one of the best hitters in the National League last year and the underlying numbers suggest it wasn't a fluke but instead the result of tangible adjustments on his part. Even if Milwaukee love their current outfield alignment, putting Profar's bat at DH at that price seemed very worth it.

However, the story is more nuanced than that. Milwaukee already has to account for Rhys Hoskins on their roster with regards to the DH spot. He is making real money this year which matters to the Brewers more than most teams and if they want to give playing time to their young guys in the outfield (which they probably should at least to start), locking down the DH spot with Profar could be a bit dubious.

Profar is also not without his faults. 2024 was a career year by a wide margin for him despite his impressive prospect pedigree before that and he also is weirdly a bad outfield defender. Milwaukee is well-known for prioritizing defense and there is a real possibility his lack of defensive value could have made even $14 million a year too much of a risk for them to take.

If there were baseball reasons for not making a play for Profar, fine. Right or wrong, fans can at least respect the process of "he just isn't the guy we think we need" and live with that choice. However, if the Brewers can't even come up with $14 million a year for a bat that could have really deepened their lineup, that is pretty embarrassing.

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