Nestor Cortes' recent injury issues should have Brewers fans genuinely concerned

Nestor Cortes was part of the package the Milwaukee Brewers received from the Yankees for All-Star closer Devin Williams. Cortes most notably appeared in the World Series after missing some time due to injury. His appearances left a lot to be desired, and it's the injuries that could hold Cortes back from being one of the Brewers aces.

With Brandon Woodruff returning to the fold, Nestor Cortes is in line to be a great companion piece. No one is asking Cortes to become "Nasty Nestor" and put up the numbers that he did in 2022 per se. However, the Brewers have a history of finding the diamonds in the rough and making the most of them. Cortes is still a big name for the Yankees to lose, but as a major market team they went out and spent the money to replace him. His 2024 season wasn't the greatest, but it was going extremely well up until his injury.

Having missed time from September up until the World Series, Cortes came back and threw only two pitches. Obviously, one of those pitches was a Freddie Freeman walk-off that won the Dodgers the game. In his first pitch back, Cortes was able to get Shohei Ohtani to fly out. An ERA of 54 doesn't look too good in hindsight, but he made up for it with recording five outs in 15 pitches just three days later.

It's way too soon to predict how Cortes will be throwing come 2025, but the good news is he avoided surgery. Cortes was able to put together a full offseason camp, and he'll immediately be added to the Brewers starting rotation. His recent injury is still cause for concern as his pair of injuries in 2023 allowed him to throw only 63 innings. Even though Cortes threw more innings last season (174.1) than he did in 2022 (158.1), there are a few key numbers to keep an eye on.

The Brewers just have to hope that Nestor Cortes' injuries are actually behind him and he can reverse these trends

In that two year span, Cortes' ERA made quite the jump. What was a 12-4 2022 season with just a 2.44ERA turned into 4.97 in the 2023 season, but dropped down to 3.77 last year. Cortes did carry a losing record, 9-10 to round out 2024. His first game back in the World Series marked his only non-start of the season, having started 30 of the 31 games he appeared in. That one appearance was the only time he hasn't started in his last 71 outings.

While his strikeout and walk numbers were nearly identical (163:38 in 2022 and 162:39 in 2024), the hits and home runs have increased quite a bit. It's hard to compare the two seasons when he faced nearly 100 more batters in 2024, but he gave up an additional eight home runs to go along with 54 more hits.

Having just turned 30 a few months ago and coming off of a noteworthy injury to his elbow, Cortes is not going to have an easy 2025. The Brewers have some options in terms of their starting rotation, but there's no doubt that Cortes will need to throw another near 3000 pitch season to make an impact. The question is, does he have it in him?

Nestor Cortes' hard hit percentage has seen a near 10% increase since 2022. His 2022 season may never be replicated, and the way he's throwing the ball isn't nearly as effective. His four seamer is his go to, throwing it 44% of the time. The cutter, sweeper, and changeup are the other pitches he throws more often than not. Exactly half of the home runs he gave up last season came from the four seamer. He gave up four times as many home runs with that pitch as he did a season prior.

Looking back to 2022, some of the numbers are glaring. In 2022, opponents were hitting just .157 against the fastball. That average rose to .235 in 2024, another increase from what it was at .213 in 2023. The slugging percentage has nearly doubled, a very alarming sign for Cortes in 2025. What was a .240 slugging percentage in 2022 turned into .443 last season. If that isn't enough, look at the hard-hit percentage. A number that sat at 39% in 2022 grew up to 52.6% this past season.

2025 may be the year that Cortes changes things up especially if his body won't allow him to do what he once did. Last season, he dropped his four-seamer usage from 52% to 44.2%. A few of his pitches were mixed in as he threw the sweeper 2% more and the changeup nearly 7% more. His cutter usage has stayed consistent at 28%, but it's a pitch that is hit at a higher percentage than the four-seamer.

With the hard-hit percentage increasing as much as it has, it'll be interesting to see what Chris Hook has in store for the former Yankee. If Cortes is able to stay healthy, he will be a crucial starter for the Brewers. There are a few minor things that Hook needs to sort out including getting Cortes more accustomed to the pitch clock, and that will come with time. Cortes is once again going to play with his pitch arsenal, looking to find the perfect formula of sweepers and changeups to mix things up and get his numbers back closer to his stellar 2022 season.

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