Pat Murphy hints at late-season pitching change Brewers fans have been calling for

It was another shaky start for Milwaukee Brewers' rookie Jacob Misiorowski on Friday night. Despite allowing just two earned runs, Miz was constantly working around traffic on the basepaths and didn't make it out of the fourth inning. His lack of command worried Brewers fans of his presumed effectiveness in next month's postseason.

After the game, which the Brew Crew ended up losing 7-1 to their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, team insiders were quick to ask manager Pat Murphy about Misiorowski's role going forward. As reported by MLB.com's Brewers beat reporter Adam McCalvy, the Brewers are considering moving Misiorowski to the bullpen for his next appearance and keeping him there for the 2025 postseason.

As McCalvy reports, Murphy made clear that a move to the bullpen for the end of this season doesn't prevent Misiorowski from continuing to develop as a starting pitcher in the future, so Brewers fans shouldn't worry that they've lost a future ace even if Miz does move to the 'pen for the next month or so.

While it may feel like a demotion for the 23-year-old flamethrower, the decision should not be viewed as such. Rather, moving Miz to the bullpen simply signals the Brewers trying to find the role in which he will be most valuable to the team down the stretch. There are many reasons to believe that Misiorowski would be far more effective out of the bullpen than he has been as a starting pitcher in the second half of the season. Let's take a closer look at some numbers to see why.

Why moving Jacob Misiorowski to the bullpen for the playoff run makes a lot of sense

First, worries of Misiorowski's comfortability throwing out of the bullpen should be alleviated by the fact that the Brewers converted Miz into a multi-inning reliever down the stretch a season ago, in case he proved to be ready for a promotion before the end of the 2024 season. With the Brewers having a clear starting five in the second half last year, the need for Misiorowski was more apparent in the bullpen than in the starting rotation.

While Misiorowski never got the call-up to the big leagues last year, he did make 12 appearances out of the Triple-A Nashville Sounds' bullpen during the final six weeks of the season. Covering 14.2 innings in those 12 outings, Misiorowski allowed just three earned runs and struck out 19 opposing hitters. He also demonstrated his versatility as a reliever, covering anywhere from one to six outs while working out of the Sounds' bullpen. It may take one or two outings next week for Miz to become comfortable in a relief role once again, but his experience in Triple-A in 2024 should help ease the transition.

However, the question still remains: would Misiorowski be more effective as a reliever than a starter?

Utilizing Baseball Reference's troves of information, there are several reasons to believe that Miz's effectiveness would be maximized in a shorter one- or two-inning relief role. First, let's take a look at how Misiorowski's numbers change when facing a batter more than once. The following numbers are opponents' stats when facing Misiorowski for the first, second, and third time in a game.

1st plate appearance in game: .196/.317/.290, .607 OPS, 2 HR, 17 BB, 43 K in 126 PA
2nd plate appearance in game: .208/.279/.396, .675 OPS, 5 HR, 9 BB, 37 K in 111 PA
3rd plate appearance in game: .286/.348/.571, .919 OPS, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K in 23 PA

As you can see, Misiorowski is hardly ever asked to face a batter for a third time, but even the difference between his effectiveness when facing a batter for a first time compared to the second time facing them is significant enough to suggest that Misiorowski should be limited to shorter stints. The fact that opponents’ slugging percentage increases by more than 100 points when facing Miz for a second time is concerning. While the decrease in on-base percentage suggests that Miz hones in his command as the game progresses, risking the big hit that could come during his second time through the order is not worth waiting out the improvement in command that may or may not come. In any case, Misiorowski needs to improve his command to be effective down the stretch, so what's more concerning is the increased chance of an extra-base hit the later he goes in games.

There's also reason to believe that Miz should be limited to roughly 30 pitch outings regardless of how many innings that allows him to cover. Once again using Baseball Reference's extensive catalog of data, we can determine how effective Misiorowski is at various pitch counts throughout the game. The following numbers show opponents' hitting statistics given the number of pitches that Miz has thrown in his outing.

Pitch 1-25: .172/.264/.313, .576 OPS, 2 HR, 7 BB, 27 K in 72 PA
Pitch 26-50: .270/.403/.476, .879 OPS, 4 HR, 13 BB, 21 K in 77 PA
Pitch 51-75: .205/.262/.321, .582 OPS, 1 HR, 5 BB, 28 K in 84 PA

Interestingly enough, Misiorowski's numbers start to improve again once he eclipses the 50 pitch mark, but the decrease in effectiveness that he shows from pitches 26-50 is not worth enduring for the increase that he sees once he settles in. The stark difference between his first 25 pitches of an outing and the next 25, clearly suggests that Miz would benefit from a switch to shorter outings, at least for the rest of the 2025 season.

As previously noted, regardless of how the Brewers elect to use Misiorowski down the stretch, his command will have to be better than it has been during the second half of the season. That said, the numbers suggest that only allowing Miz to face an opposing batter once in an outing, and limiting his outings to 25 pitches or less, which would almost certainly mean that he never faces a batter twice, would increase his effectiveness down the stretch.

The threat of having a one- or two-inning reliever with the electric arsenal of pitches that Misiorowski possesses is an intriguing weapon for any contender, especially the Brewers, whose depth at the starting pitching position allows them to get creative with how they use their young flamethrower. Certainly, in a five game series, with Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, and even José Quintana or Chad Patrick if they elect to use a fourth starter, there is no need for Misiorowski to be a starter. No team wants to see a 103 mph fastball or a 96 mph slider coming out of the bullpen, and with Miz in a relief role, Pat Murphy can create those uncomfortable at-bats for opposing hitters.