2 reasons the Brewers will be better in 2024 and one reason they won't
Will the Brewers' improvements be enough to be even better than they were last year or will one big thing get in their way?
2023 saw the Milwaukee Brewers get back to the winning ways the were used to prior to 2022 when they missed the playoffs for the first time in five years. The Crew fought off waves of NL Central opponents to win the division for the third time since the 2018 season.
The 2023 team accumulated 92 wins on the season, which was the lowest total of any of the team's five full-season division championship teams (the 1981 division-winning team only played 109 games). They also tied the 2020 team for the fastest playoff exit in franchise history as they were swept in two games by the Diamondbacks.
The goal in 2024 will be to turn last year's playoff appearance into a new "streak" by stretching it to a second consecutive season, but with the NL Central looking at least a little stronger than last year, they may have to turn in a better season than in 2023 in order to do so. Here we'll look at a couple reasons why the Brewers can be even better than last year and one reason why they won't.
The Brewers will be better because they upgraded the offense.
The 2023 Brewers were as good as they were mostly because of a strong pitching staff and one of the best defenses in the league. At times, those two facets helped them overcome an offense that went through multiple cold stretches before finally coming alive late in the year.
Milwaukee scored 4.47 runs per game last season, which ranked them 17th in MLB. Below average offensive performances by a number of young players (Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer) as well as some veterans who were expected to be some of the main run producers (Rowdy Tellez, Jesse Winker) helped contribute to that problem.
The Brewers got a boost to their offense with the trade deadline additions of outfielder Mark Canha and Carlos Santana. However the team will no longer be able to rely on those two for offense as the former was traded to the Tigers and the latter moved on in free agency.
So knowing they needed to upgrade the offense, GM Matt Arnold went out and got two of the stronger offensive options on the free agent market. He signed first baseman Rhys Hoskins, arguably the top option at that position, as well as catcher Gary Sanchez who is nearing 200 homers for his career.
Those two should help support advancements in the current roster. Last year's wave of rookies will be another year older and at least a couple of them should take steps forward at the plate. Also, top prospect Jackson Chourio has officially arrived and should provide some excitement in the lineup.
It would be very surprising if the 2024 Brewers don't end up having a better offensive output than the 2023 version. And since you need runs to win games, that's as good a reason to be better this year as any.
The Brewers will be better because they still play in the NL Central.
Last year, the NL Central was considered one of the weaker divisions in all of Major League Baseball. While all of the teams have made some level of improvements over the offseason, the feeling about the division appears to be the same here in 2024.
MLB.com recently came out with their preseason power rankings for the 2024 season. Not only did the Brewers receive no respect in the rankings but the NL Central wasn't viewed very highly in general. Only the Cubs (No. 13) and Reds (No. 15) made the top half of the rankings and just barely.
Perhaps that's because every team comes with plenty of questions coming into this year. The Cubs added a new manager in former Brewers skipper Craig Counsell and signed free agent pitcher Shota Imanaga, but that's mostly it. Will that be enough to avoid another late season meltdown?
The Reds added pitcher Frankie Montas, who is coming off a mostly lost season due to injury, and infielder Jeimer Candalario. But they are expected to rely on a core of young players leading the way and one of them (Matt McClain) is currently hurt while another (Noelvi Marte) is suspeneded for half the season. Will the young guns be able to consistently win?
The Cardinals addressed a poor starting pitching staff by adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn during the offseason, three pitchers with an average age of 35.3. They also did virtually nothing to improve an offense that was actually worse than Milwaukee's in 2023 (adding Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford might've actually made it worse). Can they actually be expected to be better?
The Pirates have actually made a lot of moves this offseason, though none of them were exactly franchise altering transactions. They might be more of a thorn in the side than usual but will any of that be enough to pull themselves out of the division cellar?
All that said, the Brewers are the reigning division champions and return much of the same core players in 2024 that helped them win said division. With the Brewers getting to play their division opponents so many times during a season, it will only help their odds for a repeat.
The Brewers won't be better because their starting rotation has taken a step back.
One of the most fun parts about watching Milwaukee Brewers baseball over the past few years has been the existence of the "Big Three" in the starting rotation in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Those three have helped the Crew win a lot of games over the years.
In 2024, fans will only get to see one member of that trio toe the rubber for the Brewers. New team ace Peralta is that pitcher as the seemingly inevitable trade of Burnes finally happened with the Orioles and Woodruff, while brought back by Milwaukee after being non-tendered in the fall, is unlikely to pitch this season.
With those two gone, Wade Miley and Colin Rea, who were each brought back this offseason, move up the rotation. Miley will have to continue fending off Father Time and show that he can stay off the injury list while Rea will need to take a step forward to be more than just a stopgap solution like he was in 2023. Can the Brewers count on both of those things happening?
Meanwhile, the end of the rotation will be staffed by a mix of newcomers, players coming back from injury, and rookies. The newcomers include DL Hall, Jakob Junis, and Joe Ross, the injury comebacks include Ross and Aaron Ashby, and potential rookie contributors include Robert Gasser and/or Carlos Rodriguez. And none of that includes the random one or two call-ups that happen every year.
So if Peralta can excel as and ace, and if Miley can succeed at his age, and if Rea can take a step forward, and if that combination of pitchers can fill out the end of the rotation, then the Brewers will be just fine. But that's a whole lot of ifs, isn't it?
Luckily, even with closer Devin Williams out for the first half of the season, the Brewers return one of the stronger bullpens in the league. So the Brewers might mitigate any possible issues with the rotation with more innings for the bullpen. Will that plus an improved offense be enough to cover for a weakened rotation? We'll have to wait and see.
Even with the rotation possibly working against the Brewers this season, there is a lot working in their favor as well. Will that be enough to be even better in 2024 than they were in 2023? Well that's what the games are for.