3 Brewers Prospects Set To Move Up Prospect Lists Soon, 2 Set To Drop Down

Prospect lists are a constantly changing exercise. New information comes in all the time, and there's never any certainty. Some guys take a step forward one year, some guys take a step back. Development isn't always linear.

Now that we're about two months into the minor league season, we've got solid enough sample sizes on Brewers prospects to know who's doing well and who's struggling. The prospect rankings that most places have out there were set prior to the season and they haven't done a mid-season update yet.

When the mid-season updates to the prospect rankings are made, here are three Brewers prospects set to move up lists and two prospects set to drop down them.

Brewers prospect set to move up prospect lists #1: OF Luis Lara

Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America have Luis Lara as the Brewers 12th ranked prospect. He's going to move solidly into the top 10 when the re-ranks come out.

The Brewers just signed Luis Lara out of Venezuela in the 2022 international signing period. He's followed the Jackson Chourio path, after dominating the Dominican Summer League last year, he completely skipped over the ACL and moved right into Low-A Carolina as an 18 year old and one of the youngest players in the league. That just shows the kind of confidence the Brewers have in Lara.

What's Lara done since being promoted to Low-A? Nothing but hit, just like Chourio. He's hitting a cool .293/.416/.354 with a .770 OPS, 16 walks to just 10 strikeouts, and seven stolen bases.

Lara does not have the power potential that Chourio does, as evidenced by his just two doubles and one home run, but the kid can hit and he shows incredible plate discipline with his penchant for walks and not striking out.

The Brewers 2022 international class was headlined at the time by Johan Barrios and Jhonny Severino, both of whom received higher bonuses, but it's become clear that Lara is the star of the class.

Oh, did I mention he's also a switch hitter?

Luis Lara is going to climb prospects lists soon and he may eventually enter the overall Top 100 if he keeps this up.

Brewers prospects set to move up prospects lists #2: SS Daniel Guilarte

Another international signing out of Venezuela, Daniel Guilarte was in the same signing class as Jackson Chourio in 2021. While Chourio has rightfully garnered all the headlines from that class, Guilarte is a pretty solid #2 prospect from that group.

Guilarte has made the jump to full season ball this year, playing with Lara in Low-A Carolina. All he's done down there is hit as well.

The 19 year old Guilarte is hitting .292/.404/.346 and despite just five of his 38 hits going for extra bases (three doubles, two triples), he has 22 RBIs to go along with 23 walks, 16 stolen bases, and a .750 OPS.

On top of his bat playing well, Guilarte has excellent speed, as evidenced by his stolen bases, and athleticism. Guilarte is a gifted defender at shortstop and has the ability to stick there long-term. The glove was his calling card at signing and now his bat has been coming around. There's a chance for him to add some power as well although it's not a present part of his game. Guilarte hits the ball on the ground quite a bit.

The bat plays and there's still plenty of room to grow. MLB Pipeline currently has Guilarte ranked 14th while Baseball America has him 21st. He's landed on the IL in Carolina unfortunately, but he has shown enough to make moves up lists when they're re-ranked.

Brewers prospect set to move down prospects lists #1: OF Hedbert Perez

It pains me to write this as I've been as big of a Hedbert Perez fan as anyone ever since he signed, but Perez just hasn't shown it one the field yet. His struggles last year dropped him down a little bit in prospect rankings coming in at 16 on MLB Pipeline and 20 on Baseball America, but a second straight season of struggles is going to drop him down a lot further.

Perez reached Low-A Carolina as just an 18 year old back in 2021. It was the final two weeks of the season, but it got him a little taste of it. When he started 2022 in Carolina, it was thought he could move up quickly from there. However, Perez struggled in Low-A last year. While he slugged 15 homers and 23 doubles, he also hit just .216 with a .665 OPS and had 132 strikeouts in 407 ABs.

Being a 19 year old in Low-A is still an aggressive assignment, prospect hype or not. Some hitters can handle it right away, and some can't. Perez struggled in his first year in full season ball and he's not the first to do that and won't be the last. Many who have struggled in it still go on to have great careers.

The Brewers are having Perez repeat Low-A in 2023, and the results have not improved. He's hitting just .161 with a .513 OPS, and 40 strikeouts in 112 ABs. He has just one homer so far (although it was of the walkoff variety).

Perez needs a bounce-back season to help save his prospect status and he just isn't having one. The swing is beautiful, the talent is there, the results just haven't been. Perez's struggles have befuddled the Brewers. They aren't even sure why he's struggling this bad.

At this point, the results are the results and prospect rankings can only rely so much on swing path and potential. With a second straight down season, Hedbert Perez is set to fall down Brewers prospects lists when they're re-ranked.

Brewers prospect set to drop down prospects lists #2: 2B Felix Valerio

Felix Valerio was a lottery ticket the Brewers acquired from the Mets in the Keon Broxton trade several years ago. For a while, his inclusion looked like a fleece for the Brewers as he dominated the lower levels of the minors and looked like a legit big league hitter. His career batting average in the minors through 2021 was over .300.

Then Valerio reached Double-A and everything changed. Valerio struggled mightily to finish 2022 in Biloxi and ended up with a .228/.313/.357 slash line with 12 homers and 30 stolen bases.

Valerio is repeating Double-A this year and the results have not improved. Through 27 games, Valerio is hitting just .191/.277/.236 with two doubles, no homers, and a .513 OPS.

Double-A is the proving ground for prospects. You can have all the success you want in the lower levels but Double-A is where you're a phone call away from the big leagues. If you find success in Double-A, odds are you're going to be a big leaguer. Valerio has yet to find that success at this level, which raises concerns about whether or not he'll be a big leaguer.

Standing at just 5'5" with little power, Valerio's defense isn't anything special and the entirety of his prospect profile was reliant on his hit tool. If he's not hitting for a higher average and getting on base a lot, there's no reason to believe he's going to make it in the big leagues.

With a second straight down season for his only average or better tool, Valerio is going to drop on the prospect lists.