3 Brewers Prospects Whose Stocks Fell Hard In 2023

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There's a lot of good things going in the Brewers farm system right now. It's a consensus top three system in baseball, it has a consensus top-two prospect in all of baseball with Jackson Chourio, several of the top prospects are coming off great seasons, and all are near the big leagues.

Even with a lot of players succeeding and seeing their stocks rise this past season, there are a few who did not enjoy a great year in 2023. Even on good days on the stock market, there's always a couple of stocks that go down, and the same situation happens in baseball.

Luckily for Milwaukee, this isn't a very long list of players who saw their stocks drop, but they're still notable names trending downward after 2023. Here are three Brewers prospects whose stock fell this past season.

1. LHP Ethan Small

You may look at Ethan Small's numbers in Triple-A Nashville and think that he had a good year. Small posted a 3.18 ERA in 38 appearances covering 51 IP with seven holds and converting three out of five save opportunities. Small struck out 61 while walking 24.

There were some improvements, his BB/9 dropped from 5.07 in 2022 to 4.24 in 2023, which is progress but that's still a high walk rate. His strikeout rate also improved from below ten to 10.76 K/9 this year.

However, there are some major concerns with Small and his prospect stock. He made the full time move to the bullpen this season, which greatly diminishes his prospect stock and overall value. On top of that, even with his solid performance, the Brewers didn't really call on him despite their need for a second lefty in their bullpen. Small was promoted to the big leagues just twice all season, making two appearances and posting a 11.25 ERA in four innings.

Small is a 26 year old former first round selection our of college. He had a lot of hype coming in as someone who could move quickly and have a high floor as a big leaguer. But that hasn't materialized as Small is already entering his age 27 season in 2024. Small hasn't been able to recapture his 2021 success when he posted a 1.98 ERA in 18 starts and he may never be able to.

The fact the Brewers continue to pass over Small as a bullpen option speaks to how far Small's stock has fallen, even with the solid surface numbers in Triple-A. MLB Pipeline has dropped Small to the Brewers 28th ranked prospect, but that's being generous given his high profile draft status. He was once ranked as the #2 prospect in the org. The results and the lack of proving himself ready for big league opportunities speaks to how the organization views him.

2. 2B Felix Valerio

Remember when there was a ton of excitement around Felix Valerio? The Brewers acquired him from the Mets as part of the Keon Broxton trade as a teenager. He hit everywhere he went, hitting .306 with 16 stolen bases in the Arizona Complex League, then hitting .314 with an .899 OPS and 27 stolen bases in Low-A Carolina in 2021 before a late season promotion to High-A Wisconsin.

Valerio showcased more power in Appleton in that limited sample, leading to a belief that he was doing enough damage to potentially become a big league regular. The undersized infielder then was advanced to Double-A Biloxi for the 2022 season and was ranked the #12 prospect in the system.

There, Valerio has stalled.

He hit just .228/.313/.357 but with 12 homers and 30 stolen bases in Biloxi in 2022. While the power output is nice, the drop in getting on base was concerning. Prior to that year, Valerio never had an OBP below .376 in a season. But perhaps it was a one-off down year, after all the jump to Double-A is the biggest in the minors.

Valerio repeated Biloxi in 2023 and a second straight down season has tanked the prospect stock that Valerio still had. He hit just .223/.286/.345 with six homers and seven stolen bases this year. He only played in 80 games and moved to a part-time role for the Shuckers. The hit tool that had the Brewers excited and Valerio's stock so high has gone backwards in Double-A.

As a 5'5" middle infielder with just average defense at best, Valerio's game has to be shooting singles, getting on base, and stealing bases. Without it, his stock is nothing. Now that he's had back-to-back seasons where his bat has gotten worse, Valerio's stock has fallen hard.

3. OF Hedbert Perez

I was as high on Hedbert Perez as anyone. He was once ranked the Brewers 3rd best prospect and was a big signing coming out of Venezuela in 2019. Perez made his way into spring training games and was one of the youngest players to be in the 2021 spring camp while there were still restrictions on how many could be there. But he simply hasn't been able to get going.

Perez put up great numbers in the Arizona Complex League in 2021, hitting .333/.394/.575 with 11 doubles and six homers. He earned a late season promotion to Low-A Carolina for the last couple weeks of the season, where he struggled to adjust. He struck out 25 times in 16 games, after already striking out 34 times in 32 games in the ACL.

Perhaps it was just a blip as he adjusted to the tougher competition. But he hasn't bounced back. Perez went back to Carolina for 2022, where his stock took a massive hit as he struggled to a .216/.272/.393 slash line but with 23 doubles and 15 homers, albeit with 132 strikeouts. His 30% K rate continued to be a major concern. Still, as a 19 year old at such an advanced level, struggles aren't uncommon.

Perez repeated Low-A Carolina in 2023, a chance to build off some late season momentum he had from September 2022. Perez again started slow out of the gate, hitting just .122 in the month of April, going 6-for-49 with 19 Ks. After two months of the season, Perez was hitting just .157 with a .506 OPS. He finally started to pick it up in June and July, hitting .310 from June 6th through June 30th with four homers. He then had hits in seven of his last eight games before going down with a season-ending injury.

The injury is a tough break for Perez, and it certainly did no favors for his prospect stock, and neither did the two months with a sub-.200 average. He was putting together a solid stretch over those next two months and perhaps was reclaiming some value, but his surge was cut short.

While Perez's stock is at an all time low, all hope is not lost. He'll be entering his age 21 season this year and will possibly start the year in High-A Wisconsin where he can build off that momentum he found during the summer in Carolina in 2023.

Perez's big signing bonus is a distant memory now. If he's going to find his way back onto the Brewers top 30 list, he's going to have to earn his way there and it will take some time.

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Home / Brewers Prospects

1. LHP Ethan Small

2. 2B Felix Valerio

3. OF Hedbert Perez

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