3 difficult roster decisions the Brewers must address ASAP
As we head towards the All-Star break, the Milwaukee Brewers are in a heated battle at the top of the National League Central with the surging Reds. The Central is a pretty bad division this season so far, which is fortunate because things have gone far from smoothly for the Brewers so far this season.
Milwaukee has dealt with injuries to key players like Garrett Mitchell and Brandon Woodruff that have hurt them on both sides of the ball. Down seasons from guys expected to be stars this season like Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes haven't helped matters, either. All of that has added up to Milwaukee being in the bottom third in the league in both pitching and position player fWAR. Seriously, it is astonishing that the Brewers are above .500, let alone leading the division.
None of that really matters much if the Brewers can turn these trends around and take advantage of the opportunity in front of them right now. It will not be easy to hold off the Reds as Elly De La Cruz has given them a burst of energy and offense while the Cubs are still lurking and hovering around .500. However, if Milwaukee makes the right calls with their roster, it could go a long way towards bringing home a division title.
Here are the difficult roster decisions the Brewers need to make soon
It is easy to just gesture wildly at the roster and say "all of them need to be better", but it is more difficult to identify the areas where the team can improve the most that can also actually be fixed prior to the deadline. At the end of the day, the trade market and the minor leagues are going to dictate what moves can and cannot be made more than anything. That said, here are the moves the Brewers need to make.
The Brewers need to add an outfielder who can hit
Getting the Brewers' outfield sorted out should be their top priority over the next month or so. On one hand, Milwaukee's outfield defense in 2023 has been the best in the entire league by a mile and that is fantastic. Joey Wiemer, in particular, needs to be called out here as he has 8 Outs Above Average already this season.
However, the picture gets significantly worse when you look strictly at their offense. Brewers outfielders are in the bottom third in the league in wRC+, slugging, batting average, strikeout rate, RBI, and on-base percentage. That is a lot of numbers that all add up to the Brewers' outfield bats being quite bad.
The solutions here, though, are a little tricky to parse. First, Christian Yelich isn't going anywhere as he has been a strong defender while also posting a 119 wRC+ for the year. Joey Wiemer has, again, been awesome defensively, but he also has been pretty bad at the plate outside of some homers as he sports an 85 wRC+ in 258 plate appearances. Brian Anderson was being counted on for his bat in the outfield, but has had to play a bunch of 3B this season and his .219/.320/.375 slash line leaves something to be desired even if he shifts back to primarily the outfield. As a result, Milwaukee easily has room for at least one new outfielder who can actually hit.
The easiest solution may be an internal one as Sal Frelick is sitting there at Triple-A. However, he has struggled a bit in Triple-A in 2023 at the plate and doesn't look quite ready for prime time just yet as he is working his way back from a couple injuries. Jackson Chourio is one of the most talented prospects in all of baseball, but he has posted just a .724 OPS in Double-A so far.
That leaves us with the trade options and while the outfield market is pretty shallow, there are a couple options that could work for Milwaukee. Lane Thomas can hit a decent bit, has some speed, and the Nationals are truly terrible so they will be selling. However, he is pretty bad defensively which doesn't really work with Milwaukee's philosophy. A better fit is Adam Duvall who can defend and while he doesn't hit for average consistently, he hits for power and is pretty much a mortal lock to go wild for a month each season. The trick is whether or not Boston will recognize that they need to sell.
The Brewers bullpen needs a lot of work
While the outfield is the most pressing concern that also can probably be addressed with a single move, the Brewers bullpen is in real need of an overhaul. The relief corps as a whole has a 4.00 ERA and is the fifth worst group in the major leagues by fWAR at just 0.5 in 2023. There have been some positives as Devin Williams sports a 1.69 ERA and is missing a ton of bats despite a really spooky walk rate. Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson, and Elvis Peguero have all been pretty decent as well, but there is room for multiple bullpen arms beyond that.
There aren't any easy answers coming from the minor leagues, so we turn to the trade market for help where there will be a plethora of relievers available that are either rentals or will have some team control.
Scott Barlow and Aroldis Chapman are going to be the hottest names on the market in all likelihood and both would be good fits. The White Sox's Keynan Middleton has an amazing looking Statcast profile and shouldn't be too expensive as he will be a free agent after the season. Daniel Bard has been very good yet again for the Rockies and assuming Colorado doesn't fumble the bag yet again when it comes to holding a player too long, he should be available as the Rockies are really, really bad.
Milwaukee needs to bring in a starting pitcher who misses bats
While the first two areas are the bigger priorities, bringing in another starting pitcher that actually strikes guys out would be a plus. Corbin Burnes is having a bit of a down season so far, but betting on him returning to form is fine for the moment. However, guys like Wade Miley, Julio Teheran, and Adrian Houser have all been getting by with strikeout rates below 6 K/9 which is not a recipe for success in the long term.
If Brandon Woodruff can return to the rotation relatively soon from a muscle strain in his shoulder, that would be incredibly helpful. However, Milwaukee should still look at bringing in another starter that misses some bats to give them some starter depth even if they think Woodruff is guaranteed to be the guy he usually is. Dylan Cease is an option here, but he has multiple years of team control and will likely be too expensive. However, Cease's Chicago teammate Lucas Giolito is a rental and fits the bill nicely. If the Tigers decide to sell at the deadline, Milwaukee should definitely check in on Eduardo Rodriguez as well assuming his finger is healthy.