3 reasons why the Brewers won't bring Willy Adames back, 1 why it could happen

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The Milwaukee Brewers have handled the Willy Adames situation as best as they possibly could. He and former teammate Corbin Burnes were both barreling toward their final season of arbitration before hitting free agency as spring training was approaching. Then Burnes got flipped to Baltimore. Naturally, the questions about Adames' future quickly followed.

However, the Brewers front office remained steadfast in keeping Adames, telling him in spring training that they will not be trading him and the rumors quickly stopped. Adames would then go on to play out his contract in 2024 with Milwaukee.

Now, the 2024 season is over for Adames and the Brewers. He had a great year, playing in 161 games, hitting .251/.331/.462 with career highs in doubles (33), home runs (32), RBIs (112), and stolen bases (21). Heading into free agency as the premier shortstop on the market, that's as good of a season as you could hope for if you're Adames. It also exemplifies why the Brewers made the right move to keep him.

Now that Adames will hit the open market, the question becomes if he will return to Milwaukee on a new contract or if he will leave for 'green'er pastures.

3 reasons why Willy Adames will not stay with the Brewers

Adames' contract demands

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Adames is seeking a contract north of $200MM in free agency. Now, a lot of players seek big money like that heading into free agency but never actually get it. However, Adames does have leverage as the only viable starting shortstop on the free agent market and, as mentioned above, Adames is coming off a career year. Those things are very likely to equal a massive payday.

Playing a premium position and producing at the plate like he does makes Adames a rare commodity that teams will have to pay big bucks for. He's right to look for the $200MM contract and there's a decent chance he gets that. It doesn't hurt his cause that there are teams out there with the ability to dish out a $200MM contract to a shortstop. Teams like Los Angeles and San Francisco have needs at shortstop and a lot of money to play with.

The Brewers, quite simply, can't afford that. They gave Christian Yelich, who was coming off back-to-back MVP caliber seasons, a $188.5MM contract. Even though that was a few years ago and salaries for players have generally gone up significantly since then, it's still hard to see the Brewers paying Adames more than they paid Yelich when Adames, at his peak production, still is nowhere close to Yelich at his.

That brings me to the second reason.

The Brewers have already admitted Adames is likely gone

When the regular season came to an end, manager Pat Murphy told reporters "chances are, that's his last regular season game in a Brewers uniform and everybody knows that."

Owner Mark Attanasio said prior to the Wild Card series, "He's going to get an enormous free agent contract and I'm very happy for him and his family, and we'll give it our best shot. But there's a lot deeper pockets out there."

When the team owner and the manager aren't exactly bursting with optimism about their chances to re-sign Adames, that's a pretty good indication that Adames is not going to be returning.

It's not a reflection that they don't want Adames, it's actually the complete opposite. They'd love to keep him, but the economic reality is they aren't going to be able to afford him. They already have Yelich on a big contract, Chourio's contract is team-friendly but going to be growing, if Hoskins opts in, he'll have a big salary, they simply aren't able to tack on another $25+MM a year for the next several years for Adames.

Milwaukee already has Adames' replacement on their roster

Desperation can make a team be willing to spend a little bit more than they'd like to in order to address a hole on their roster. Teams overpay to fill needs in free agency all the time. The Brewers don't tend to be one of those teams, partially because of their financial restraints. Why would the Brewers need to stretch that much for Adames when they aren't even desperate to find a shortstop to replace him?

The Brewers have two MLB-caliber shortstops on their roster with major league experience in Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz. Both are excellent defenders, arguably superior defenders to Adames, and both took major steps forward offensively in 2024. Plus, both are still pre-arbitration which means they'll be earning near-league minimum salary.

The few times Adames was taken out of games this year, Ortiz slid over to shortstop and he appears to have the inside track to that job over Turang, who has found a good home at second base. No matter which direction they go, the Brewers will be set at shortstop with one of those two very good options.

If Adames was the only star player the Brewers roster had and he was the only capable shortstop the Brewers could go to, it'd be much easier to see Milwaukee going all out to sign him and prevent him from leaving. But that's not the case.

1 reason why Willy Adames could stay

Adames has said that he wants to stay with the Brewers

Perhaps the most important factor in retaining a top tier free agent is whether or not that free agent wants to return. Willy Adames has loved being in Milwaukee and he is certainly open to returning and the Brewers are open to bringing him back. With that, there can at least be some hope that a reunion is possible.

After the Brewers were eliminated, Adames told reporters, "I would love to be here next competing with my boys again. It'd be great, it'd be special." Adames continued, "I don't know if I'm going to be back. I say I hope. If not, it's been a hell of a time here."

When asked about what makes the Brewers so special to him and why he wants to stay, Adames said, "It's something special what they have here in this clubhouse and I don't know if it's Bob [Uecker] and the energy that he always brings, even though he's [90] years old, but there's something special in this place and I feel like everybody that comes here, they embrace it. When I got here in '21, I just embraced the energy that they have here."

Adames loves Milwaukee. He's been a leader in that clubhouse, he loves the group of guys in the clubhouse and that is essential to any path to a reunion in free agency. He won't return if he doesn't want to, and he certainly seems to want to.

Whether that desire to stay results in a "hometown discount" though remains to be seen. In order for Adames to return, he's likely going to need to give the Brewers one.

The best chance the Brewers have to retain Adames is if the free agent market is not as lucrative for him as he expects, causing his contract demands to fall into a range where the Brewers could find him more affordable. Whether that's fewer years, fewer dollars, or both, the longer Adames lingers out on the open market, the better the chances for his return to Milwaukee.

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