3 Starting Pitcher Targets The Brewers Should Try To Trade For Immediately
The Milwaukee Brewers are in desperate need of some immediate rotation help. Brandon Woodruff is out for another month, Aaron Ashby is out until September at best, and now Wade Miley is going on the shelf for 6-8 weeks. It's a worst case scenario for the Brewers rotation.
They've burned through most of their starting pitching depth. They're going to be relying heavily on guys like Colin Rea and Janson Junk if they stick with their internal options. For a team with aspirations of a division title and a playoff run, that's simply not going to cut it for very long. Waiting a minimum of another month before they get just one starter back in Woodruff puts the Brewers in a bad spot.
What the Brewers truly need is an external addition to their starting rotation, and fast. Unfortunately for them, it's only the middle of May, and most teams aren't looking to trade their starting pitchers just yet, preferring to wait closer to the Deadline when there's high demand and they know for sure they aren't making the playoffs this year.
Trades at this time of year aren't unprecedented. Just two years ago right around this time, the Brewers made a trade with the Rays to acquire shortstop Willy Adames in exchange for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen. It filled a need for both teams, was a mutually beneficial trade between contenders, and put the Brewers on the path back to the playoffs.
The Adames trade was made out of a desperate need to fix their shortstop situation that year. This year, the Brewers find themselves in a similar desperate situation but with their starting rotation. It calls for an impact trade.
The Brewers should look to make an external addition to their starting rotation and here are three starting pitchers they should immediately target in trade talks.
Brewers rotation trade target #1: White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito
The Chicago White Sox aren't going anywhere anytime soon. They're 16-29, they're 8.5 games back in the AL Central, and they haven't shown any signs of figuring things out. They're easily heading towards "seller" territory come trade season. Perhaps the Brewers can convince them to pull the trigger on a trade early.
Lucas Giolito is heading towards free agency this winter and will be one of the most coveted rental pitching options on the market this year. He has a 3.86 ERA through his first nine starts this year and has garnered Cy Young votes in three of the last four seasons. He's reliable, durable, and hasn't missed any time due to injury in recent seasons. The only year he's made less than 29 starts was the shortened 2020 season where he made 12 starts, which was every turn.
15 years ago, in 2008, the Brewers acquired the most coveted rental starting pitcher early on in CC Sabathia. Sabathia was exactly what the Brewers needed when they needed it. Giolito could be the same thing for the Brewers in 2023.
Giolito's walk rate is at a career low 1.8 BB/9 this year. He's making $10.4MM in his final year of arbitration and while acquiring his salary in May rather than July means the Brewers would be on the hook for more money, adding him to the rotation would drastically improve the group.
Brewers rotation trade target #2: Tigers LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
Another potential aggressive trade acquisition to help the Brewers starting rotation is Detroit Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez is having a fantastic season with Detroit, with just a 2.06 ERA through nine starts.
If he keeps pitching like this, the 30 year old Rodriguez will likely exercise his opt out clause and become a free agent at the end of the season. Otherwise he could opt in for the remaining three years and $49MM on his contract.
That would be a sizable sum of money for the Brewers to potentially take on. Any trade of Rodriguez would be complicated by the factor of his opt out clause. Milwaukee or any interested club would rather pay the prospect price of a rental instead of three and a half years of control while the Tigers will want a return larger than that of a rental. Finding a middle ground won't be easy.
Further complicating any potential Brewers pursuit of Rodriguez is the fact that the Tigers are currently in second place in a weak AL Central. Sure, they're expected to fall out of the race as the season goes on but when they're only 2.5 games back, trading away your best starting pitcher will be hard to sell to fans and ownership as a smart move.
This is where a trade similar to the Willy Adames deal could potentially work. Two competitive teams trading big league players to address needs early on in the season. The Tigers will need some help on their big league roster if they're going to remain competitive and in order to make this deal, the Brewers will need to deal from their big league roster.
Given the spate of injuries the Brewers are dealing with, having the depth at other positions to be able to deal from to acquire Rodriguez may be difficult to do. To harken back to the Adames trade once more, the Brewers dealt from their bullpen depth to make that deal and their bullpen depth was quite short the rest of that season.
Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Brewers rotation trade target #3: Giants RHP Alex Cobb
In an NL West filled with the Dodgers, Padres, and upstart Diamondbacks, the San Francisco Giants have to know they're facing a nearly impossible battle get into the playoffs this year. They tried to revamp their team in free agency this offseason, but missed on Carlos Correa as well as both Aaron Judge and Arson Judge.
They currently have a couple of starters that would intrigue the Brewers in lefty Alex Wood and righty Alex Cobb. Of the two, Cobb may be best suited for the Brewers. First, Cobb has made all his starts this year while Wood has missed some time with injury, although he's healthy now. Second, Cobb has been excellent all year, posting a 1.96 ERA through his first nine starts.
Cobb is keeping the ball on the ground more than ever before, with a 62.4% ground ball rate this season. This is following a 61.5% GB rate last season. The Brewers are the best defensive team in baseball and prefer their pitchers to keep the ball on the ground. He's also stranding baserunners more than ever and his fastball velocity, even at 35 years old, is steadily averaging 95 MPH.
Cobb is under contract for this season at $9MM, which is quite affordable for the Brewers. He also has a club option for 2024 valued at $10MM, which would also be affordable if Milwaukee decides to go this route. He's keeping the ball in the park and has been improving each year even into his mid-thirties.
The Brewers will want a trustworthy, veteran addition to their rotation if they seek to fix their current problem, and that's exactly what Cobb would bring.
Milwaukee's facing a crisis in their starting rotation with injuries to Woodruff, Miley, and Ashby. They're running on fumes and are in need of some reinforcements similar to their need two years ago for shortstop help. They could pull the trigger then. Finding a trade partner for rotation help now would be more difficult, but it seems necessary at this point.