4 Brewers Prospects Who Could Be Written Off If They Fail To Produce In 2023

The Milwaukee Brewers farm system is certainly improving. Several prospects had excellent years in 2022 and put themselves in an excellent position to either contribute right away in 2023 or in the near future.

However, there were some prospects that underperformed. Prospect status can be a fickle thing. One good season and their stock shoots up, while one bad season can completely tank it. It's a constant adjustment as we try to gauge just how good of a player someone is.

One bad season doesn't necessarily damage a player's prospect status beyond repair, but two bad seasons in a row, well, that changes things.

These four Brewers prospects could be written off if they have back-to-back bad seasons in 2023.

1. LHP Ethan Small

2022 was supposed to be the year for Ethan Small to break through to the big leagues and take on a substantial role. He had already reached Triple-A in 2021 and, if not for a finger injury, could've even made his MLB debut that year. Instead he had to wait for his opportunity in 2022 and he wasn't able to take advantage of it.

Ethan Small was only called upon for two starts in the big leagues. He never made it past the fourth inning in either of them, struggling with big innings and control problems. Small had a 7.11 ERA in 6.1 IP with eight walks and seven strikeouts.

Back in Triple-A, his control problems continued as he allowed 66 walks in 109.1 IP for the Nashville Sounds. That's simply unacceptable. The Brewers were set to rely heavily on Small last year and he was unusable for them. Even as the rotation continued to suffer from injuries, they wouldn't promote Small and had good reason for it. He simply wasn't ready, and they had to rely instead on Jason Alexander for a bulk of those starts that Small was originally supposed to get.

Towards the end of the season, the Brewers began converting Small to a bullpen role in Triple-A but they did not call him back up to the big leagues. His future role may end up being in the bullpen instead of the steady rotation presence he was expected to be all along.

Simply put, the Brewers need Small to put it together in 2023 and show he can be a starting pitcher. He'll be entering his age-26 season and if he struggles with walks again, it's fair to question his role in the Brewers future and if he even has a role.

2. OF Joe Gray Jr

The Brewers drafted Joe Gray Jr in the 2nd round in the 2018 MLB Draft. He struggled early on with injuries, illness, and poor performance at the plate. He burst back on to the scene in 2021 with the Carolina Mudcats as he dominated the Carolina League early on. He turned that into a promotion to High-A Wisconsin and a spot back on prospect lists.

However, since then he's been slipping down those prospect lists. Gray struggled a bit in his promotion to High-A and then was sent back to the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in 2022, where he struggled some more.

Gray hit just .193/.279/.353 with 15 homers, 17 stolen bases, and 177 strikeouts in 462 ABs. That's a 38.3% strikeout rate. By all accounts, Gray's 2022 season was a disaster.

Gray dealt with some eyesight problems. He got Lasik surgery during the offseason that left him with astigmatism that affected his vision throughout the season. He ended up getting it corrected but the damage to his season was still done and even after the correction, his performance didn't really improve that much.

At first it was health preventing Gray from reaching his potential. Then he was finally healthy and showed a flash of his potential in early 2021. Ever since then he's struggled. It has to be frustrating for Gray to have dealt with those issues. Gray and the Brewers know the talent is in there. But the strikeouts were a concern even before 2022 and the concerns just got a lot worse.

If Gray can't turn things around and perform like he did in Carolina this year, then he's going to be written off as a prospect.

3. OF Hedbert Perez

When it comes to prospect hype, few were as hyped coming in as Brewers outfielder Hedbert Perez. The Brewers signed Perez in the 2019 international signing period. His professional debut was delayed by the cancelled 2020 season, but reports of his hitting ability, power, and overall five tool package led to a lot of excitement. He even got some Cactus League at-bats in spring training.

Perez played well in 2021 in the Arizona Complex League, earning a late season promotion to Low-A Carolina for the final two weeks of the year. He struggled initially but played better in his second week as an 18 year old in Low-A.

The hype was there and now we were going to get a chance to see him over the course of a full season as a 19 year old. But Perez's 2022 season disappointed.

Perez spent the entire season in Low-A Carolina and posted a .216/.272/.393 slash line with 23 doubles, 15 homers, nine stolen bases, and 132 strikeouts in 407 ABs. That's a 32.4% K rate, which is not ideal to say the least.

Perez showed good power, but it seemed at times he was selling out for power and sacrificed the hitting and on-base ability. He's going to need to get back to focusing on just putting the ball in play and making good contact.

By all accounts, the ingredients are still there for a very successful player. The swing is smooth, but pitch selection and approach may need some adjustments.

For a much hyped international player, that first year in full season ball is a very important litmus test. He didn't exactly pass with flying colors in 2022 and is likely to start 2023 back in Low-A Carolina. If Perez struggles again in 2023, there may begin to be some concerns about whether Perez will be able to reach his enormously high ceiling.

Perez was one of the youngest players in Low-A last year, so struggles are somewhat to be expected. He'll enter the 2023 season as a 20 year old and even though he's still young, it's going to be an important season for his prospect status and for him to show that he's improving as a hitter.