4 Budget Free Agents the Brewers Should Target This Offseason

The winter meetings are right around the corner, and there could soon be a lot of movement in the free agent market.

With the exception of a handful of minor moves, the Milwaukee Brewers have been relatively quiet thus far in free agency. However, that's not to say they won't be looking to address some of their biggest roster needs.

Will they be in the market for some of the top names available on the market? Most likely not. However, as they tend to do every offseason, the Brewers will look to bring in a handful of low-cost players to help round out a competitive roster.

Now, this isn't the flashiest list of names. These aren't players who will alter the trajectory of the season with their single signing. Instead, these are free agents who could slide under the radar this offseason, but they are players who could still hold some value in 2024.

Given their highly-limited payroll, the Brewers strive to find as much value as they can in the open market. They attempt to get the most bang for their buck with the players they bring in, and these are names who could deliver on that goal. Here are four budget free agents the Brewers should target this offseason.

Player # 1 - LHP Alex Wood

Alex Wood is hitting free agency after a rather underwhelming showing in his final two years in San Francisco. In 2022, he pitched to a substandard 5.10 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP across 130.2 innings. This season, he was relegated to a swingman-type role as the year progressed. In 12 starts and 17 relief appearances, he posted a 4.33 ERA to go with a FIP of 4.47.

On top of Wood’s recent struggles on the mound, he also faces durability concerns. He battled through a myriad of injuries over the past few seasons, including ailments to his shoulder, hamstring, and back. His lack of availability is concerning, and it should put a cap on his price in free agency.

That said, there are two main reasons why Wood would be a good fit in the Brewers starting rotation: He is excellent at pitching to soft contact, and the Brewers will need to bring in a lefty arm.

I'll start with the former reason. If the Brewers elect to retain Corbin Burnes this winter, which is looking to be the case, the starting rotation is projected to be a makeup of Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, and Colin Rea- all of whom are right-handed pitchers.

Now, southpaw Aaron Ashby will be in the mix for a rotation spot as well in 2024. But there's uncertainty to what his exact role will be, and there's a good chance he lands in the bullpen in 2024.

Alex Wood could be a serviceable replacement for Wade Miley in the starting rotation. He is a lefty arm with plenty of experience, and he is one of the best at keeping the ball on the ground when healthy.

Even in a subpar 2023 season, Wood still managed to post a promising ground ball rate of 45.9%, which was in the top 30% of the league, according to Baseball Savant. Similarly, Wood demonstrates an exceptional ability to miss barrels with his pitching. He posted a 5.6% barrel rate in 2023, which was in the 83rd percentile.

Across his 11 big league seasons, Wood has an excellent ground ball rate of 50.4% and a barrel rate of just 5.4%. That type of pitcher profile can be successful with the Brewers, especially considering the elite bunch of defenders they have in the field.

At this point in his career, he isn't the same pitcher he once was. Yet, when healthy, he can still be a valuable rotation piece at just 32 years old. FanGraphs projects Wood's new deal to be around $7 million annually, and I think that would be great value in this market.

Player #2 - LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ryu shares a lot of similarities to Alex Wood’s profile. He is a veteran southpaw who has battled through numerous injuries throughout his career, but he can be very successful on the mound when fully healthy. Most recently, Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2022 season, and he made his return to the starting rotation in August of 2023 for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Dissimilar to Alex Wood, Ryu is coming off of a strong end to his 2023 campaign. In 11 starts, he posted a 3.46 ERA to go with encouraging quality of contract metrics for the Blue Jays. In his 52 innings pitched, Ryu generated a strong ground ball rate of 46.2% to go along with an above average hard hit rate (36.8%) and barrel rate (7.6%).

What’s more, Ryu displayed impressive command of his pitches in 2023, which is something that has been a strength of his throughout his career. He posted a 6.3% walk rate this season, which was in the 80th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Throughout his 10-year career, Ryu has an impressive walk rate of just 5.4%.

He won't blow you away in the strikeout department, as he sits in the upper-80's with his fastball. However, he can provide dependable innings- which is something the Brewers will be in dire need of.

For the Brewers, it all depends on his price point in this free agent market. He is a client of Scott Boras, meaning his encouraging small sample size in 2023 could push his price outside of Milwaukee's comfort zone. Nonetheless, if the Brewers can bring him in at an AAV under $10 million, his veteran presence at the back of the rotation could go a long way in 2024.

Player #3 - 1B Mike Ford

When looking at potential impact bats who could yield cheap deals, there aren't a whole lot of options for the Brewers to consider. The Brewers already acquired Jake Bauers from the New York Yankees a few weeks back, but they will need to do more at the position for the 2024 season.

Mike Ford brings some pop to the position at the expense of some swing-and-miss concerns. In 251 plate appearances with the Mariners in 2023, he posted a strikeout rate of 32.3% with a high whiff rate of 30.4%. Because of this, he hit just .228 on the year. That said, he made up for it in the power department, which is where his value resides.

Ford posted impressive quality of contact metrics with the Mariners, including a hard hit rate of 44.6% and a whopping 17.3% barrel rate. In turn, he posted a slugging percentage of .475 on the year. He smashed 16 homers, giving him a home run-to-plate appearance rate of .064, to go along with six doubles. His ability to hit for extra-base hits translated to an impressive ISO of .247.

Now, is he going to repeat his 17.3% barrel rate in 2024? Most likely not. But there are aspects to his profile that make him a good fit with the Brewers beyond his strong slugging numbers. More specifically, his success against southpaws throughout his career is noteworthy.

The 31 year old has reverse splits throughout his five-year career. Meaning, as a left-handed hitter, he has better numbers against left-handed pitchers than righties throughout his career. In 108 career plate appearances versus southpaws, Ford is slashing .268/.343./.577 for a .920 OPS and a 148 wRC+.

Admittedly, Ford wouldn’t be an everyday starter. He is a power-first bat who hits for a low average, but he can be a fine bench option for the Brewers in 2024. He is the type of first baseman the Brewers have recently shown interest in, and Ford could serve as a very cheap source of homers at a position of need for the Crew.